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Spaf
02-02-2009, 11:23 PM
Gold


4

Spaf
02-02-2009, 11:31 PM
ETF Trading
Monday
February 02, 2009

General Commentary:

We vacated the Gold position this morning. Yesterday was a nice advance, but it could not hold this morning. Gold had a gap down at the opening and there it struggled. We sold at 90.04; taking profits in hand.


A look at the chart(s)
Gold[IAU]
Commodities
http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b296/Spaf/090202IAU.gif
Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/)

Pricing was above the 50dma.
The Bollinger Bands were showing a modest volatility.
The P-SAR was running bullish.
Volume was low.
The S-STO was registering over-bought.
The MACD was somewhat struggling.


Happy Trading.....:)

XL-entLady
02-02-2009, 11:33 PM
I been reading a lot about gold ETFs and how they are taking off. So I've put a number of them on my watch list and am getting ready to trade them in a fantasy account. Here is an article I found that lists the major ones and how they are doing lately.

What’s The Outlook For Gold And Its ETFs?

"Gold investors have found the Midas touch with gold and related exchange traded funds (ETFs) showing a small surge....."

http://www.dailymarkets.com/contributor/2009/02/01/what%e2%80%99s-the-outlook-for-gold-and-its-etfs/

I hope you enjoy it!

Lady

Show-me
02-03-2009, 12:40 AM
Hi Lady,

Good to see ya, GLD and UGL.

teknobucks
02-03-2009, 01:17 AM
own some gld, cef, & ewc......want to buy more ASAP

feel gold will visit 1500+ sometime soon.

the bunch of "change" oriented specialist now in charge will try 2 print outta this........not to rag on about our white house guest much...just NOT A BIT OF CONFIDENCE AT ALL IN this socialistic obama crowd

know he is my prez now and i respect him for what's he has pulled off. the point is he is a junior senator with very left leaning crooks around him.

GOD HELP US

teknobucks
02-03-2009, 01:28 AM
love faber.....spot on fellow:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58f3UpXu904







http://www.321gold.com/

XL-entLady
02-03-2009, 01:33 AM
Hi Lady,

Good to see ya, GLD and UGL.
Hi, my friend! I don't know anything about the UGL ETF, but if you are interested that means that I'd better learn. Thanks for the tip!

Lady

XL-entLady
02-03-2009, 02:11 PM
VR Trader, 2/2/09, by Mark Leibovit, emphasis added.

"GOLD - ACTION alert -

The precious metals had a great day Friday, hitting rally highs, despite the rising dollar. Gold gained 18.80 to 927.10 and hit a rally high of 929..60 in the afternoon, putting us right at resistance of 930. Silver rose 0.32 to 12.67 and hit a high of 12.70. Platinum was up 14 to 987. Copper futures settled up 0.0110 to 1.4685.

Commodities as a whole (the CRB Index) has been creeping higher. The only two groups that have not meaningful participated to date is energy and meats in the commodity complex. It appears, however, commodities as a whole are breaking out of bases and could really take-off here.

Precious metals are benefiting from a huge flight to safety. Back in the autumn stock market crash, Treasuries were the flight to safety instrument. Since then, the US government has "invested" $700 billion in financial firms through the TARP, expanded money supply, and is passing a $819 billion stimulus plan. With all the new supply coming online to fund the growing budget deficit, gold has replaced US Treasuries as the safe investment of choice.

Meanwhile, next upside resistance for gold is 930, 960 and 985 and the record high at 1037. Beyond that, I am looking for 1200. There is a seasonal tendency for a rally into February or early spring, usually followed by a correction. Traders have to be aware of this risk, whether we post new record highs or not. ....

I continue to recommend accumulating the physical metal whenever you can get your hands on it.. Reason? There is not a single central bank or financial institution in the world that can create more gold. Its supply is extremely limited. All the gold ever mined in the history of the world would fit into two Olympic-size swimming pools. In addition, every central bank on the planet is printing fiat money like crazy. Plus, if you think the financial crisis is bad thus far, tighten your seatbelts because it's about to get a heck of a lot worse."


http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=101037

Lady

XL-entLady
02-04-2009, 11:48 AM
Here's an article to make you think. Look at what gold bullion did as we came out of the 2003 bear market bottom.


Stock Market is Bottoming, Equities VS Gold Bullion
by Chris Vermeulen, 2/3/2009

"Stock market looks like it has bottomed forming a similar pattern as it did in 2003. What is the better investment during an opportunity like this if this is the bottom: Stocks, Gold Bullion or Mining Stocks?

The charts below will really open your eyes as to how similar today's W looking bottom is to the W shaped bottom in 2003. Of course 6 years later the markets trade and move faster than ever before because of technology allowing traders to track and trade stocks from anywhere with a click of a button. So this years bottom formed much quicker.

Traders, individual investors, hedge funds, financial institutions and even some of the guys on CNBC are starting to buy stocks and etfs (exchange traded funds) at these price levels. I remember the market bottom in 2003 and it was much similar to the type of energy buzzing these past few weeks. Of course there is a lot more drama with Obama as president, Printing US Dollars, Scandals and bad news hitting the market day after day. But what makes all this normal is that it cannot get much worse in the news and everyone is expecting it for months to follow. Traders and investors don't even flinch when bad news comes out anymore and to top it off the SP500 has formed the same pattern it did during the last bear market bottom in 2003. Check out these charts below.

Performance Chart of SP500, Russell 2000, Gold Bullion and Gold Miner Stocks
This chart shows how well different investments performed during the last bull market. The SP500 was the steady gainer posting a 95% gain; Gold Miners Stocks posted a whopping 210% gain but had wild swings which were big enough to shake out even the best traders. Gold bullion and the Russell 2000 performed very well providing a 130% profit with manageable price swings....."

http://safehaven.com/article-12513.htm (http://safehaven.com/article-12513.htm)

Lady

etftalk
02-04-2009, 03:55 PM
As you can see from the charts above, it's pretty amazing how similar things look between the two bear markets in the SP500.

The one problem I have with the bottom theory is that this bear market is only about 15 months old. There's no comparison of the 2001 recession to the current economic environment, yet the bear market lasted three years back then. Of course valuations were a lot higher in 2000, so there's that.

XL-entLady
02-06-2009, 01:45 PM
Food for thought from 2/4/2009 MarketSci:

"First, a look at the ratio of gold (represented by the ETF GLD) over the gold sector (XAU) from 2005:

http://marketsci.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/2009020401.gif?w=400&h=201 (http://marketsci.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/2009020401.gif)
Over the last 4+ years, the two have traded in a fairly narrow range versus the other, but in mid-2008 the ratio exploded as investors embraced the “safe” (good for gold) and abandoned all things equity-related (bad for gold stocks).
Note: I’m using the ETF GLD to represent physical gold, and the index ^XAU to represent the sector, because I think those two are the most familiar to readers, but the observations in this post have more or less held for other vehicles such as futures (gold) and the ETF GDX (gold sector).
The Strategy
The ratio of gold vs the gold sector has exhibited a fairly strong contrarian tendency. The following graph shows the results of two strategies, the first (green) going long gold at today’s close if GLD underperformed XAU for the day, and the second (red) going long if GLD outperformed XAU, frictionless from 2005 to present.

http://marketsci.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/2009020402.gif?w=400&h=241 (http://marketsci.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/2009020402.gif)
[logarithmically-scaled]
The observation hasn’t been foolproof (note late 2005, early 2006, late 2007, and early 2008), but generally speaking, gold has been consistently stronger tomorrow when yesterday it underperformed gold stocks (and vice-versa).
For the number-lovers:

http://marketsci.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/2009020403.gif?w=455&h=192 (http://marketsci.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/2009020403.gif)
This strategy is exploiting a very small daily advantage (similar for example to adaptive daily follow-through (http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/11/19/the-simple-made-powerful-with-adaptation/)), and therein lays a problem.
Most of the strategies that I talk about on this blog could be traded using leveraged mutual funds (not to be confused with leveraged ETFs). These are the only thing that I trade. Because they incur no transaction fees or slippage, most of the tests I’ve performed on this blog could have been duplicated, for all intents and purposes, as well in the real world.
Not so here. To the best of my knowledge, there are no mutual funds suitable for active trading that track gold (the gold sector yes, but not gold itself). Trading this strategy with ETFs/futures would bring trading frictions that would close an already very fine advantage.
I’m struggling now with a way to improve upon this advantage enough to make it tradable. I share it here in hopes that I’ll generate a spark amongst fellow quant’ish folks who frequent the MarketSci Blog. As always, more to follow.
Happy Trading,
ms"

http://marketsci.wordpress.com/

Lady

etftalk
02-09-2009, 01:13 AM
http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/gold1.gif

justbizness45
02-10-2009, 03:20 AM
GLD or SLV are ETFs I have been thinking about a long position in, especially if the Treasury continues to print money like it's going out of style. Any contrary thoughts?

etftalk
02-10-2009, 04:36 AM
Yes. Gold seems to be in a bull market again, but may need a breather first.

justbizness45
02-10-2009, 04:41 AM
Yes. Gold seems to be in a bull market again, but may need a breather first.

I'm looking 9 months to all of 2009 as a long window. I think I need to build solid a base before I try shorting the market.

Show-me
02-10-2009, 11:13 AM
Gold is the standard and silver is the laggard. Many believe silver never reached its full potential.

XL-entLady
02-10-2009, 12:44 PM
Yesterday's Smart Money Tracker blog had the following to say:

"...Once the second phase of the commodity bull starts, and I'm not convinced it has started yet, I wouldn't look for energy and base metals to be the leaders again. Remember the old leaders rarely lead the next bull market. I suspect everyone will want to jump back on the energy bull once commodities do bottom and start the second phase. Granted oil will definitely rally. It may even make new highs again. I suspect it will. But it's not going to be the leader anymore. The global economy has been far too damaged by the bursting of the credit bubble for demand in this sector to recover quickly.

No the second phase will be lead by the commodity sectors that underperformed during the first phase. It will be lead by the commodities that will benefit not from surging economic growth but surging money supplies. That would be precious metals and to some extent agriculture because infrastructure in this area has been neglected for years.

Liquidity will always flow into undervalued sectors.

During the 2001 to 2008 period oil gained over 1400%. I can pretty much guarantee that before the second phase of the commodity bull is over we will see the same thing happen in gold and probably more so as it's much easier for the general public to invest in gold and silver than oil.

You need the public to come into a asset class for a bubble to form. Yes, precious metals will undoubtedly end up in a bubble before this is over. Let's just say I won't be at all surprised to see $3000-$5000 gold before this is finished.

That being said we are now due for a correction in the precious metals markets. Ultimately it will be a buying opportunity whether gold holds above the 1980 highs at $850 or if there is still one more leg down before we get a final low."

http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/


I currently have an allocation in SLV and it may have a short term dip coming, but statements like the ones above are why I'm going to hold it for at least the intermediate term. And I'm going to add a gold position as soon as this pullback starts back up.

For what its worth,
Lady

justbizness45
02-11-2009, 03:27 AM
Yesterday's Smart Money Tracker blog had the following to say:

"...Once the second phase of the commodity bull starts, and I'm not convinced it has started yet, I wouldn't look for energy and base metals to be the leaders again. Remember the old leaders rarely lead the next bull market. I suspect everyone will want to jump back on the energy bull once commodities do bottom and start the second phase. Granted oil will definitely rally. It may even make new highs again. I suspect it will. But it's not going to be the leader anymore. The global economy has been far too damaged by the bursting of the credit bubble for demand in this sector to recover quickly.

No the second phase will be lead by the commodity sectors that underperformed during the first phase. It will be lead by the commodities that will benefit not from surging economic growth but surging money supplies. That would be precious metals and to some extent agriculture because infrastructure in this area has been neglected for years.

Liquidity will always flow into undervalued sectors.

During the 2001 to 2008 period oil gained over 1400%. I can pretty much guarantee that before the second phase of the commodity bull is over we will see the same thing happen in gold and probably more so as it's much easier for the general public to invest in gold and silver than oil.

You need the public to come into a asset class for a bubble to form. Yes, precious metals will undoubtedly end up in a bubble before this is over. Let's just say I won't be at all surprised to see $3000-$5000 gold before this is finished.

That being said we are now due for a correction in the precious metals markets. Ultimately it will be a buying opportunity whether gold holds above the 1980 highs at $850 or if there is still one more leg down before we get a final low."

http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/


I currently have an allocation in SLV and it may have a short term dip coming, but statements like the ones above are why I'm going to hold it for at least the intermediate term. And I'm going to add a gold position as soon as this pullback starts back up.

For what its worth,
Lady

Thanks Lady, I did make my first buy request this evening for SLV @ 13.05. I was a limit trade (thank you for that) so we will see if it fills tomorrow. This was the first time I've made a purchase outside of TSP.

etftalk
02-11-2009, 03:42 AM
Thanks Lady, I did make my first buy request this evening for SLV @ 13.05. I was a limit trade (thank you for that) so we will see if it fills tomorrow. This was the first time I've made a purchase outside of TSP.
Congrats! I hope you get filled.

justbizness45
02-12-2009, 04:16 AM
Congrats! I hope you get filled.

Nope :(, I'll try again tomorrow.:wacko:

XL-entLady
02-12-2009, 12:50 PM
Gary at the Smart Money Tracker is super bullish on precious metals. Here's his latest piece:

"I'll be the first to admit that gold sentiment is getting too bullish. At some point gold is most definitely going to have to correct and wipe out a big chunk of this bullishness.

However an interesting correlation has developed recently. Gold instead of trading inversely to the dollar has developed a tight positive correlation to the dollar. That has very bullish implications for gold.

The reason being that the dollar is now threatening to break out of the consolidation zone of the current T1 pattern. Once this happens we should see a second leg up in the dollar roughly equal to the first leg. That gives us a target of 93ish on the dollar chart.

As long as the positive correlation remains in play that would suggest a huge move higher for gold ... and don't even get me started on silver."

http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/

Lady

Bullitt
02-14-2009, 01:30 PM
Ahh, gold. Such a tough one. It always seems to me that gold always trades in crazy fashion because you have to figure most of the guys who continuously pump gold are so nervous about the prospects of the human race in general.

XL-entLady
02-17-2009, 06:30 PM
I have what is probably a 'rookie' question. :noworry: An Credit Suisse gold ETN with the symbol GOE is going through the roof today. I'm talking up 50+%! :notrust:

I tried to pull up a chart in stockcharts but can't. My broker software isn't giving me a good enough chart to decide if there is still a reasonable entry point.

Anyone know why I can't find it in stockcharts?

And I've never purchased an ETN before, because if I remember right you don't actually have fee simple interest in anything if the company implodes.

So does anyone have any thoughts they want to share? GOE a good idea? Bad idea?

TIA!
Lady

etftalk
02-17-2009, 06:46 PM
It looks to be VERY thinly traded; only 60K shares traded as of 2:20 PM ET, although it says the average is over 2 Mill shares / day.

Looks like it had an interesting day - to say the least. :D

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/goe.gif

XL-entLady
02-18-2009, 06:41 PM
More gold companies, each with a bit different slant on the market.

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2009/02/18/the-great-gold-debate/

The Great Gold Debate

By Michael Vodicka (http://www.dailymarkets.com/author/michaelvodicka/) on February 18, 2009

"Gold continues to be a hot topic in the investment community as the precious commodity edges back towards its historical $1000 per ounce mark. As is the case with most conversations about markets, one side is bullish and the other side is bearish. In this instance, each side has a compelling argument.


“Gold Bugs”
The gold bugs are bullish on gold because of concern about inflation and a weak U.S. dollar. Much of this concern relates to the recent spending habits of the Federal Government, which is running record budget deficits in an attempt to stimulate the battered economy. Gold bugs are suggesting this will lead to runaway inflation as the printing presses move into high gear.


The Bears Strike Back
But the bears say this is hog wash, and that the recent deflationary cycle should continue to weigh on asset prices, including gold. Zacks analyst Paul Ramen underscored this notion, saying that “The USD will strengthen due to its safe haven status and rising confidence in President Obama. Inflation is nonexistent.”
Ramen also notes that slowing GDP growth in India, the worlds #1 consumer of gold, could have an impact on demand.
There is no way good way to settle the debate other than to step aside and let the forces of the market take over. For the time being, the bears are on the sidelines, waiting for prices to drop to initiate. But for the gold bugs who are ready to add to their positions, here are some destinations to invest in gold.


Gold Investment Destinations


Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD (http://www.dailymarkets.com/symbol/GOLD/): 49.10 -0.98 -1.96%) posted solid fourth-quarter results on Feb 9 and painted an optimistic earnings projection, pointing to its strong balance sheet and expanding margins as primary drivers.


Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY (http://www.dailymarkets.com/symbol/AUY/): 9.47 +0.09 +0.96%) provides some diversity because it mines copper in addition to gold. Either way, Yamana is bullish on 2009, with CEO Peter Marrone recently saying the company is “very well positioned for 2009,” due to its low cost basis.


Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX (http://www.dailymarkets.com/symbol/ABX/): 38.01 +0.72 +1.93%) has broad mining exposure all across the world in five different continents. The company’s low cash costs of $390 to $415 per ounce should help it stay ahead of the profit curve for another year.


SPDR Gold Shares (GLD (http://www.dailymarkets.com/symbol/GLD/): 96.43 +0.98 +1.03%) is a gold ETF that is tied to underlying gold prices. This is a great way to get exposure to gold without going through the cash markets and buying bullion.


Conclusion
All market participants have unique investment objectives. But regardless if you are bearish or bullish on any particular segment of the market, it makes sense to stay informed."


Lady

justbizness45
02-19-2009, 12:05 AM
Saw this on the TSP site from H14FU:

"There seems to be some doubt, from what I read, that GLD the gold ETF does not have the physical gold backing that it should. I have read that GTU (Central Gold Trust) is backed by gold bullion. I will be tracking GTU now rather than GLD."

Anyone holding GLD or know if it's true??

XL-entLady
02-19-2009, 03:02 AM
Saw this on the TSP site from H14FU:

"There seems to be some doubt, from what I read, that GLD the gold ETF does not have the physical gold backing that it should. I have read that GTU (Central Gold Trust) is backed by gold bullion. I will be tracking GTU now rather than GLD."

Anyone holding GLD or know if it's true??
I'm not holding GLD. When I clued in on the gold rush it was already too expensive for me. I saw 14U's post too and looked at GTU today, and it's about half the price per share of GLD. I thought that was interesting. I started thinking of selling one of my lagging positions and buying GTU on the next entry point. Still thinking .... :toung:

Lady

justbizness45
02-19-2009, 03:14 AM
I'm not holding GLD. When I clued in on the gold rush it was already too expensive for me. I saw 14U's post too and looked at GTU today, and it's about half the price per share of GLD. I thought that was interesting. I started thinking of selling one of my lagging positions and buying GTU on the next entry point. Still thinking .... :toung:

Lady

It's currently 20% above it's 200 EMA. What are you looking for on a entry point?

XL-entLady
02-19-2009, 03:30 AM
It's currently 20% above it's 200 EMA. What are you looking for on a entry point?
If I look at the 30 minute chart, it looks like the last hour of the day it quit riding the top of the bollinger band and pulled back just a bit. Unless there is a lot of buying at the open to shoot the price back up, that $42 level its at now might be as good as any. But please remember that, although I've been playing with the S&P for decades, I only have a few months under my belt at playing with EFTs. I'm a rookie too!

Lady

XL-entLady
02-19-2009, 01:48 PM
If you've become a gold bug, you may be interested in this opinion received yesterday from one of my guys:

"...I’m starting to get quite a few emails from subscribers trying to pick the top in gold. I suspect quite a few got thrown from the bull this morning. Remember this is what bull markets do. They go up and they make it as hard as possible to stay on board for the ride.

Sure gold is overbought. Sure sentiment is getting too bullish. I’ve got news for you bull markets get overbought. Then they get even more overbought. Sentiment gets bullish in bull markets then it gets even more bullish. Just wait till we enter the third phase. We are going to see bullish sentiment like we’ve never seen before.

The bottom line is we have a target on the dollar index [estimated to be 94-95 in a previous message. Lady]. Gold is trading with a positive correlation to the dollar. Unless that correlation all of a sudden breaks down we simply don’t have any reason to sell any of our precious metal positions until our target is reached...."

For what it's worth,

Lady

etftalk
02-19-2009, 02:27 PM
Interesting. It's the reason many of us miss big moves. I have been looking for a pullback in gold myself. I feel the same way about the dollar - due for a pullback, but maybe it will keep going??

I just wonder what will happen to gold if the dollar does indeed pullback? 1200 maybe?

XL-entLady
02-20-2009, 12:27 PM
Yesterday's Ord Oracle on where they think GDX (gold miners, which is currently at 35.64) is headed:

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=9840


"A Head and Shoulders bottom started to develop back in August 2008 on GDX. In mid January a Sign of Strength was performed through the Neckline of this Head and Shoulders bottom and confirms the pattern and also confirms the Neckline breakout. Since mid January the market has worked higher and volume has been increasing and a bullish sign and suggests this market has energy to move higher. Support now comes in near 32 on GDX. This Head and Shoulders pattern has an upside target near 54 which is the old highs set back in March 2008."


Lady

XL-entLady
02-24-2009, 03:43 PM
Why I bought more GTU and SLV this morning:

"Some economists have been wrong-footed on gold, we think, by treating the metal as a commodity as opposed to a currency. A synchronised global financial crisis and depression is, of course, consistent with falling commodities prices. But exactly the same environment, as we can now see, is hugely positive for gold, what Nathan Lewis in his recent book on the subject referred to as "the once and future money". "

http://www.greenfaucet.com/asia/dilbert-dow-and-gold-theory/08160


Lady

Bullitt
02-25-2009, 11:32 PM
What do you guys think of the drop in GDX yesterday? Did it reach an IT top and where do you see support? Currently sitting on it's 50 DMA.

Too many gold bulls out there in my opinion so I think a good shake is in the works.

etftalk
02-26-2009, 12:35 AM
I would say it is a buy w/ tight stop (maybe 30.50-31.00). Still above MA's and trend pretty much intact, but getting close to breaking. PMO gives sell. It either snaps back here or breaks. Risk / reward wise, it's probably worth a play.

Take a look at Ebb's GDX trading this year. He seems to have it down pretty good.
http://www.etftalk.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1073#post1073

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/gdx.gif

XL-entLady
02-26-2009, 03:05 AM
I sold my GDX gold miner yesterday because trailing stop was triggered. Made an okay profit, not great after commissions but okay. I'm buying back in as soon as StochRSI moves above 20 (currently at zero for the second day).

Lady

XL-entLady
02-26-2009, 12:26 PM
2/25/09 Ord Oracle weighs in on GDX:

"Back in mid January, GDX jumped the Neckline of a Head and Shoulders bottom with a Sign of Strength and confirmed the Head and Shoulders bottom. The Neckline should now hold as support on pull backs. Over the last couple of days GDX has been pulling back and nearing the Support near 32. Today’s decline showed less volume then yesterdays, which implies the decline is weakening. Today GDX closed near 33 and not at support yet. We would like to see Full Stochastics reach below 20 and RSI approach 40 when GDX reaches near 32 to help confirm that the 32 range will hold. We would also like to see a positive divergence between GDX and Price relative to Gold ratio, where GDX outperforms gold for the short term. The Head and Shoulders pattern on GDX has an upside target near 54 which is the old highs set back in March 2008."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

Lady

etftalk
02-26-2009, 02:02 PM
Think I will take a shot.

XL-entLady
02-27-2009, 01:06 PM
"...Over the last 4 years gold has been moving in 8-month chunks, which suggests that it's under the direct influence of Martin Armstrong's "Pi Cycle (http://web.archive.org/web/20051030100225/www.armstrongdefensefund.org/martypei/buscycle.htm)", where he identified market timing patterns lasting 3,141 days -- i.e., Pi x 1000 days, or 8.6 years. Armstrong also identified a corresponding 8.6 month cycle and a 4.3 month half-cycle, and it looks like gold is faithfully following this template.
This timing cycle is suggesting that the month of February should end up as the half-way break in this latest 8-month growth phase, which should then take off higher from March to June. We'll have to pay attention to more serious weakness in March -- although I'm definitely not expecting this -- as this could be an early sign that the next 4 month period will be sideways or down.
Getting back to current situation, the big question now is whether gold will bounce at $930, or down at $900.
I actually have a very important fractal target down at $890, so if gold does break down further and head for this area it should briefly overshoot $900, and that will be an excellent opportunity to re-enter back into an initial long position...."

http://safehaven.com/article-12699.htm

Lady

etftalk
02-27-2009, 03:34 PM
GDX is playing out nicely (thanks bullitt!). Support has held so far and a stop below the low of the recent reversal seems reasonable. Target, low 40's.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/022709.gif

XL-entLady
02-28-2009, 03:52 PM
"***Gold*** The SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) remains in a clear uptrend and is currently testing the upper boundary of its support zone. The sharp pullback over the last four days alleviated overbought conditions as RSI(2) dipped below 10 for the first time since early January. This is not a buy signal, but rather an alert to be on guard for a short-term reversal on the 30-minute chart. After a surge from 87.5 to 98.5 (9-20 Feb), GLD retraced 50-62% with a falling flag. The ETF got a small bounce off the 62% retracement mark yesterday and this is the first place to anticipate a reversal. Anticipation is tricky and this is a short-term trade that will require a close watch. A move above 93.5 would break the flag trendline and act as a short-term bullish signal. "

http://www.traders-talk.com/gurucharts/hill/d0227_gldd.gif http://www.traders-talk.com/gurucharts/hill/d0227_gldi.gif

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=102311

Lady

justbizness45
03-02-2009, 02:20 AM
Decision Moose is staying in gold for another week. Enlightening analysis of last week's decisions.

http://www.decisionmoose.com/Moosecalls.html (http://www.decisionmoose.com/Moosecalls.html)

etftalk
03-02-2009, 04:34 AM
Overnight gold was about 10% last I checked.

etftalk
03-02-2009, 02:11 PM
Boy, gold can't stay positive today, with S&P down over 2%? That's not a good sign for GLD or GDX.

JTH
03-02-2009, 02:32 PM
Boy, gold can't stay positive today, with S&P down over 2%? That's not a good sign for GLD or GDX.

Does this mean everyone is taking their money to the sidelines?

Stocks are down, but bonds are only slightly up. I'm wanting metals to lead the way today.

etftalk
03-02-2009, 02:43 PM
The trend appears to be intact, but there are signs of topping in gold. Look at the PMO indicator. Maybe we'll see 875-900 again?

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/030209a.gif

XL-entLady
03-02-2009, 03:01 PM
One of my paid guys said this morning:


"So far every daily cycle low has also weighed on mining stocks. The XAU is consolidating in a tight range right now. If one isn’t prepared to hold through a drawdown they should probably exit if this consolidation breaks to the downside."

I'm watching the charts carefully but I think I'm going to hold my small position in GDX and be ready to add to it as soon as the Stoch RSI moves up.

Lady

etftalk
03-02-2009, 04:13 PM
Gold just ticked positive on the day and GDX is actually making a nice run off of the lows. The paranoid person in me wonders if the market makers ran the stops and are ready to take it higher again. I am not very familiar with the trading patterns of GDX. Maybe this happens often?

The only thing that would make me want to buy GDX in the short term, is a move above Friday's high today or tomorrow. If it happens today, we'd have a positive outside day and a bunch of confused traders. :D

I may short it is it can't get above 32.50.

Gumby
03-02-2009, 04:18 PM
If it happens today, we'd have a positive outside day and a bunch of confused traders. :D



Count me confused. Hit my stop @ $32, trended down to $30.83. Now $32.50.:confused:

XL-entLady
03-02-2009, 04:37 PM
Gold just ticked positive on the day and GDX is actually making a nice run off of the lows. The paranoid person in me wonders if the market makers ran the stops and are ready to take it higher again. I am not very familiar with the trading patterns of GDX. Maybe this happens often?

The only thing that would make me want to buy GDX in the short term, is a move above Friday's high today or tomorrow. If it happens today, we'd have a positive outside day and a bunch of confused traders. :D

I may short it is it can't get above 32.50.
After studying GDX all weekendd from lots of angles, I've decided it is extremely volatile. It's not for the faint at heart. And it has patterns that make me think "manipulation" all the time. You gotta really believe in precious metals to hang in on some of these trades. :)

Lady

etftalk
03-02-2009, 04:51 PM
Count me confused. Hit my stop @ $32, trended down to $30.83. Now $32.50.:confused:
That was the prefect spot for a failed rally after Friday's low was taken out. Here's a 5-day chart...

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/030209d.gif

I thought about shorting it near 32.50, but decided I better not risk day trading since I sold it already this morning.

XL-entLady
03-02-2009, 05:16 PM
That wacky GOE is at it again. Up over 20% on the day. :eek: I really need to keep a closer eye on that one. :nuts:

Lady

XL-entLady
03-04-2009, 05:25 PM
I've mentioned before that I have core positions in GTU, GDX and SLV. I'm starting to grit my teeth every time I look at the daily charts on those positions. But yesterday one of my subscribed information guys explained better than I can why I'm holding on:

"I’ve had countless emails asking me why I don’t want to sell my miners. Here’s the way I look at; if I thought we were going to see one more leg down for gold to new lows then I would gladly sell and look to get in as close to the bottom as I could. However at this point I’m not confident that gold does have another leg down. That doesn’t mean that it won’t happen just that I’m not prepared to invest under that assumption.

The fact that gold has broken the downtrend and is making higher highs and high lows has me believing we saw the low back in Oct. So at this point I’m not willing to lose my position. In a bull market you never know when the correction will end.

I’m sure most of you have noticed by now that often when the precious metals rally it happens right at the open or even as a gap up and it quickly gets away from you before you can react. Silver is especially notorious for this. If you aren’t in you risk missing the move. So at this point I’m not willing to risk missing a move. That means I will “sit tight” with my positions. "

So I'm still holding my precious metals positions and will continue to do so as long as I can stand the pain. (Um-m-m. Sounded like Birch there. OOH, I scared myself. :toung:)

Lady

etftalk
03-04-2009, 06:06 PM
Silver is looking interesting with the reversal day yesterday. You got me thinking. :suspicious:

JTH
03-04-2009, 06:15 PM
The Sto on XME has turned over, and I suspect GLD and SLV are right behind the turnaround. Perhaps yesterday's hammer on SLV is a good sign?

JTH
03-04-2009, 06:24 PM
The Sto on XME has turned over, and I suspect GLD and SLV are right behind the turnaround. Perhaps yesterday's hammer on SLV is a good sign?

Opps, guess I should add I use a 9,3,3 Sto :rolleyes:

XL-entLady
03-06-2009, 03:27 PM
Anyone got any ideas why GTU isn't holding up percentage-wise with GLD? We won't even want to compare either of them to that wacko GOE, by the way. It's going nuts again today. And I'm not in it.:(

But back to the original question, GTU vs. GLD, thoughts anyone?

TIA,
Lady

etftalk
03-06-2009, 04:09 PM
No idea.

Per Yahoo profile: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=GTU
"Central Gold-Trust primarily invests in unencumbered gold bullion. As of September 30, 2003, the company’s gold holdings were 82,619 fine ounces of physical gold bullion and 4,581 fine ounces of gold bullion certificates. The trust is taxed as a mutual fund trust for income tax purposes, pursuant to which it distributes all taxable income earned by it to the unitholders and deduct such distributions for income tax purposes. Central Gold-Trust was established under the laws of Ontario in April 2003; and is headquartered in Ancaster, Canada."

Ryan
03-06-2009, 05:35 PM
What is with that GOE? I don't understand how it moves that much. GLD is not even up 1% today and GOE is up about 56%.:confused:
Anyone got any ideas why GTU isn't holding up percentage-wise with GLD? We won't even want to compare either of them to that wacko GOE, by the way. It's going nuts again today. And I'm not in it.:(

But back to the original question, GTU vs. GLD, thoughts anyone?

TIA,
Lady

etftalk
03-06-2009, 05:42 PM
What is with that GOE? I don't understand how it moves that much. GLD is not even up 1% today and GOE is up about 56%.:confused:
You got me Ryan. I have been watching it (GOE) today, and I am a little concerned with how it's trading. It may be a little tricky.

Yahoo shows it at $79, while Scottrade shows 87.90. Both are supposed to be realtime.

The bid on Scottrade is $83.00 and the ask is $87.90, which means as soon as you buy it, you are down almost $5 a share.

Volume is only 25K right now. That is way too light for me. Can be manipulated very easily.

Maybe consider UGL instead, which is an ultra gold ETF (move about 2 X gold and GLD)

etftalk
03-06-2009, 05:48 PM
Talk about thinly traded... Current bid / ask on GOE on Scottrade:

Bid 78.18
Ask 86.79
Last trade: 89.00

:eek:

Ryan
03-06-2009, 06:15 PM
If demand for gold is going up would it be a good idea to look at mining companies. I have been watching FCX.

Any suggestions.

etftalk
03-06-2009, 06:39 PM
If demand for gold is going up would it be a good idea to look at mining companies. I have been watching FCX.
Absolutely! Some of us watch and trade GDX here, which is a gold mining ETF. Choosing one mining company can be profitable, but one bad earnings report or mishap on the [mining] site, and you could get hurt.

etftalk
03-09-2009, 01:53 PM
GOE 118.00 https://research.scottrade.com/research/common/img/quoteUpLarge.gif+33.00 +38.82% :eek:

This one is quite entertaining.:bigsmile:

alevin
03-09-2009, 02:16 PM
Wow! why is this one so different from GLD or GDX? Is it just smaller so more volatile, or does it have different holdings?

etftalk
03-09-2009, 02:31 PM
We haven't figured it out. Only Lady had been brave enough to dabble in this one so far.

I noticed this morning that AGQ, an ultra silver ETF, was doing something similar but not to the same scale. Silver was down .02 and AGQ was up 5% at one point.

XL-entLady
03-09-2009, 03:01 PM
Wow! why is this one so different from GLD or GDX? Is it just smaller so more volatile, or does it have different holdings?
I think it is small enough that it can be manipulated. I was in it for a while and made 20% on my investment, then sold. Since then it's gone up an additional 60%+ but the thing is such a rollercoaster that I haven't dared jump back on. GOE's price doesn't seem to be pinned to reality.

Lady

JTH
03-09-2009, 08:06 PM
A few hightlights http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aNa.15yVNltc&refer=canada

Gold Falls, Halts 2-Day Rally as Demand Wanes; Silver Declines

“It seems reasonably wise to reduce our gold holdings once again on this recent strength,” Dennis Gartman (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Dennis+Gartman&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), an economist and the editor of the Gartman Letter in Suffolk, Virginia, told his clients today. “Unless there is a sudden upward shift in gold holdings by the ETFs, weak demand for jewelry will weigh upon the gold price.”

Gold futures for April delivery fell $24.70, or 2.6 percent, to $918 on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division. The price rose 20 cents last week.

Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust fell to 1,028.99 tons on March 6. Investment in the ETF is up 32 percent this year.

Gold and oil will be the best-performing commodities this year, according to a survey of investors by Barclays Capital.

etftalk
03-09-2009, 08:21 PM
Wow! why is this one so different from GLD or GDX? Is it just smaller so more volatile, or does it have different holdings?
I found this on GOE:
Credit Suisse has been contacted by the New York Stock Exchange regarding extraordinary trading and price movements in its ELEMENTS exchange traded notes (ETNs) linked to the MLCX Gold Index — Total Return due April 10, 2023 (CUSIP No. 22542D209) (the “Securities”). The Securities currently trade on the NYSE Arca under the symbol “GOE”.

There is no lead market maker on the New York Stock Exchange currently assigned to make a market for the Securities.
In addition, Credit Suisse currently does not expect to issue any additional Securities. As a result, the maximum amount of Securities outstanding at any given time is not expected to exceed the 50,000 Securities outstanding as of today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/090224/20090224006301.html?.v=1

XL-entLady
03-10-2009, 01:52 PM
That wacko GOE is toast! :suspicious:

Elements MLCX Gold ETN Currently at 1,000% Premium: Sell Now

"Anyone who owns Elements MLCX Gold ETN (GOE (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/goe)) needs to be aware that the price is likely to drop more than 90% very suddenly.
The one thing that separates ETFs (and ETNs) from closed-end funds is the ability to keep price and “indicative value” closely aligned through a creation/redemption process. ETFs have “authorized participants” with the ability to exchange shares of the underlying asset for shares of the ETF (when the ETF is trading at a premium) and vice-versa. This arbitrage mechanism is lacking for closed-end funds, so they are always trading at a premium or discount.
I recently pointed out that MacroShares (http://investwithanedge.com/are-macroshares-really-etfs) trade at premiums and discounts, but they at least have a logical explanation. However, Elements MLCX Gold ETN (GOE (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/goe)) is trading at a 1,000% premium for no apparent reason.
Checking their website (http://www.elementsetn.com/Default.aspx) for news doesn’t help, as the latest press release is dated October, 2008. The FAQ (http://www.elementsetn.com/FAQs.aspx) explains that a daily NAV is not calculated, so the “indicative value” will be used for the purposes of determining repurchase price.
The note issuer for GOE is Credit Suisse (CS (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cs)), and the distributor is Nuveen. The prospectus (http://www.elementsetn.com/pdfs/Prospectus-GOE.pdf) indicates that the offering is for $250 million (250,000 shares at an initial price of $10). It appears that there are only 50,000 shares outstanding, so issuing more shares should not be a problem.
Keeping the price aligned would seem to be a simple task of:
<LI _extended="true">issuing more shares <LI _extended="true">sell them on the open market <LI _extended="true">collect an outrageous premium
repeat as necessary
Eventually the premium shrinks to the point of making it no longer worth the effort. That is how ETF/ETN price arbitrage is supposed to work. The price versus indicative value discrepancy started to creep in during the first week of February and has been accelerating ever since.
So why aren’t Credit Suisse and Nuveen issuing more shares to take advantage of this huge premium? An Elements representative states there are two problems causing this: 1) the market maker has run out of inventory, and 2) the issuer (Credit Suisse) has decided not to issue any more shares.
In other words, Credit Suisse is about to shut down this fund. They have stopped issuing new shares, but they haven’t announced the fund’s closure yet. The irrational volume in February allowed GOE to escape the latest issue of ETF Deathwatch (http://investwithanedge.com/etf-deathwatch-march-2009).
When the fund closes, remaining shareholders will be liquidated at the indicative value. Additionally, Credit Suisse could decide to start issuing shares again. Either way, the price of GOE will eventually return to its indicative value. Meanwhile, another 20,500 shares exchanged hands today, pushing the price to $114.90 while the indicative value is $10.05. Someone is about to get hurt."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/125056-elements-mlcx-gold-etn-currently-at-1-000-premium-sell-now

Lady

etftalk
03-10-2009, 02:47 PM
"Anyone who owns Elements MLCX Gold ETN (GOE (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/goe)) needs to be aware that the price is likely to drop more than 90% very suddenly.
Sounds like a buy. :) No one is ever right.

I do know when it will drop... when I buy it.

etftalk
03-10-2009, 02:49 PM
Unless stocks are about to start a major rally, gold may have finished its pullback.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/031009a.gif

Bullitt
03-15-2009, 03:57 PM
GOE is toast for sure. It's like the guy in the gym who everybody is watching lift huge amounts of weight on the bench press. Just because he's doing one thing that nobody else can do and everybody is watching doesn't mean he's not an idiot.

I'm not a gold bug type, not by any means, but I added to GDX at 29.89 last week when one of my GTC orders hit. Could have gotten 'em a bit cheaper, but I'm taking advantage of any pullbacks to add. Average cost right now is around 26.50. There's so much panic buying and selling when it comes to precious metals, especially now, that you really have to tune out the week to week moves in order to see the bigger picture here.

Bullitt
03-18-2009, 06:52 PM
Nice head fake by the boys in GLD today by dipping it below the 50 DMA. Word is, last week Dennis Gartman told his readers to buy gold when it kisses the uptrend line at the 88 area.

alevin
03-18-2009, 07:21 PM
And to think I considered selling my 24 GLD shares this morning when I saw things headed below. I hung tough the last couple days becuz thought it might stay above the 50 but wasn't sure so was ambivalent this am. Decided to bail DDG as priority, save GLD for one more day anyway. wow, glad I did even if they snookered me a little on the DDG-much smaller investment to begin with.

Bullitt
03-18-2009, 07:29 PM
Lots of head fakes and technical games are played in GLD. That's the way they want it to be.

XL-entLady
03-18-2009, 07:50 PM
One of my paid guys is admittedly a bit of a gold bug. He thinks that when, not if, GLD hits 100 you're either on the train or you're under it. My words, not his, but you get the idea. :toung:

Lady

Bullitt
03-18-2009, 08:44 PM
I'm not a gold bug and it's very difficult to find much unbiased information out there about gold and silver, but if he thinks we're going to one hundo, I should easily be able to pay for the home improvements we've got lined up this summer.

XL-entLady
03-24-2009, 01:43 PM
3/24/2009 VR Trader:

"GOLD and METALS - ACTION alert -

You should be buying all sell-offs. Don't even hesitate! Pray that gold declines so you can add to your position. Such a decline could take it to 850. The world economic system needs gold and you need to own it!

Precious metals fell at the end of the day yesterday as the stock market continued to rallied, getting hit as traders exit their flight to safety trade and move back into the stock market. Gold fell 14.40 to 938.20, silver slipped 0.07 to 13.66, but platinum was up 12 to 1125.

Earlier in the day, silver hit a new one month high of 13.96 and platinum hit a recovery high of 1145. For the day, copper was up 0.0450 to 1.841 and also hit a recovery high of 1.8750. With most of the metals hitting intra-day recovery highs along with new recovery highs in crude oil, as discussed below, the market is obviously concerned about the inflationary impact of the actions taken by Fed and Treasury along with the fiscal stimulus coming from Congress and the President.

We are currently long GLD and SLV in our platinum portfolio. But remember, these are trading positions. You should continue to own physical gold as a long term investment.

We saw huge advances in the precious metals in the 24 hours following the FOMC announcement. From Wednesday's low to Thursday's high, we saw gold gain 80.90 (9.2%) while silver rallied 1.83 (15.4%). Many times I've written that one morning you'll wake up and all of sudden gold will be up $100 per ounce. While it mostly occurred Wednesday afternoon and it fell a bit shy of the $100 dollar figure, the rally we just saw is what I've been writing about. Gold is in a long-term uptrend and the Fed's printing press is running at full speed. As a result, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more of these sudden spikes higher.

Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares, the biggest gold ETF, hit a new high of 1,114.60 tons Friday, up 11.31 tons from a day ago, according to the latest data from the fund. We continue to see solid demand for the GLD, regardless of whether the spot price is rising or falling. Underlying demand is obviously very strong. My concern, however, is just how accurate those reports are, whether there is truly gold backing that fund at all. I want to see it! Also, remember, owning GLD exposes you to 'counter-party' risk. If you could physically claim you share of the gold at any moment and load it up in the trunk of your car, I would be less cynical. But, that's not the case. Instead of GLD, IAU or SLV, please consider CEF - the Central Fund of Canada which does have the same 'counter-party' risk.

Gold hit 1007.20 on February 20th and retraced to a low of 882.80 on March 18 (spot). If key upside resistance at 963.75 (spot) is penetrated, we have a shot back to 1007.20 or higher. A break under 882.80 will likely send gold down to next support at 850. Further support lies at 780 and 680.

Silver (spot) touched 14.66 on February 22 while the SLV (ETF) touched 14.45. Silver found support on March 19 at 11.89. Next support is 1154-1189, 1061-1085 and 961-980. There are still unfulfilled potential into the 15.00-17.00 range. My bias is for a continuation of the rally.

Copper touched 1.8750 on March 23, a new recovery high. The bear market low at 1.26 was posted back on December 16. With volume positive I'm willing to give the upside the benefit of the doubt with potential to 2.25 at this time."

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=103613


Lady

alevin
03-24-2009, 02:30 PM
Not sure I understand about the counterparty risk with GLD, SLV vs. CEF. Can someone here explain it to me?

I looked into buying physical gold from Perth Mint a few weeks ago, but they want minimum buy of $10K, which I do not have laying around. So I need to stick w/ETFs I guess, and chickens and garden (diversification)! :eek: Physical's a good idea if you've got the wherewithal, I think.

I read this morning where excess inventories are clearing across the board to balance with lower demand, which means insufficient supply later on since takes longer to gear production back up after factories, mines shut down. leads to....more money chasing fewer goods? does that mean producer prices start going up? :unsure:

Wish I understood timelines for shift better.

JTH
03-24-2009, 04:32 PM
Sorry to go off on a gold rant, but sometimes I just can't help myself.

Please allow me to go off on a survivalist EOTWAWKI SHTF rant for a moment. I'm a bit hesitant to recommend Gold to anyone. You can't eat, drink, shoot or smoke it so it really serves no purpose for me. Lately, it seems that everywhere I turn, people are trying to sell me Gold. These salesmen are playing off of our economic fears. I put this group of people in the same category as Amway salesmen and Llama farmers in that it's all one big pyramid scheme.

Now for a market trade it serves its purpose. But when the dollar hits the fan I'd rather own Silver, Oil and other things that not only contain value, but serve a universally useful purpose. If the world were to go into an economic free fall, 10,000 dollars of gold is only going to make me a target. Banks are going to rape safety deposit boxes and the Feds are going to steel any gold they can find.

OBTW the value of the guns & ammo I own has outpaced everything... :toung:

XL-entLady
03-24-2009, 06:22 PM
....But when the dollar hits the fan I'd rather own Silver, Oil and other things that not only contain value, but serve a universally useful purpose. ....
I do agree with you that silver is going to prove to be a better investment than gold. Silver is like platinum in that it is both a precious metal and an industrial metal. That's why my SLV position is twice the size of my GTU position. And also why I bought PTM the other day. :)

Lady

alevin
03-24-2009, 06:38 PM
And that's why I bought 2x my GLD holdings in DBC this morning (shares-wise) :), and why my next move will probably be something energy-related, even if OptX won't let me into DBE (still haven't investigated reason for that roadblock yet).

JTH
03-24-2009, 06:47 PM
I do agree with you that silver is going to prove to be a better investment than gold. Silver is like platinum in that it is both a precious metal and an industrial metal. That's why my SLV position is twice the size of my GTU position. And also why I bought PTM the other day. :)

Lady

You're right Lady

Have you looked at Silver on EBAY? Even junk silver is overpriced I keep talking about buying physical silver, maybe this weekend I'll look for a coin shop.

XL-entLady
03-24-2009, 06:55 PM
And that's why I bought 2x my GLD holdings in DBC this morning (shares-wise) :), and why my next move will probably be something energy-related, even if OptX won't let me into DBE (still haven't investigated reason for that roadblock yet).


You're right Lady

Have you looked at Silver on EBAY? Even junk silver is overpriced I keep talking about buying physical silver, maybe this weekend I'll look for a coin shop.
Alevin, I bought DBC this morning too! I got it at $20.94. Great minds think alike. :toung:

JTH, nope, the physical silver I own is in things like squash blossom necklaces. I've got lots of physical silver and it's all got turquoise in it! :bigsmile:

Lady

justbizness45
03-26-2009, 04:04 AM
You're right Lady

Have you looked at Silver on EBAY? Even junk silver is overpriced I keep talking about buying physical silver, maybe this weekend I'll look for a coin shop.

Put an add in the paper you are buying coin silver at spot for the silver weight. 1964 and prior years coin silver is 90% pure. You will be amazed how many people come out to sell to you at spot.

justbizness45
03-30-2009, 04:04 AM
Decision Moose stayed in gold for another week. Weekly commentary at the link:

http://decisionmoose.com/Moosecalls.html (http://decisionmoose.com/Moosecalls.html)

I am in SLV instead. I have read a few articles that question if GLD has as much physical gold as it claims.

etftalk
04-02-2009, 08:15 PM
Oscar thinks gold may have failed after testing the head of a H&S pattern.

http://chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=nwstf5x35blyhb668sp6.png

alevin
04-03-2009, 02:42 AM
Oscar thinks gold may have failed after testing the head of a H&S pattern.

http://chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=nwstf5x35blyhb668sp6.png

I've seen this coming, didn't lighten up on GLD like I suspected I should a few days ago. Ichimoku Clouds, Aroon and Aroon oscillators were all telling me to get out, lighten up. I just learned how to start reading Aroons this week, but been distracted, unfortunately. Will decide in the am what to do.

XL-entLady
04-03-2009, 02:49 AM
I've seen this coming, didn't lighten up on GLD like I suspected I should a few days ago. Ichimoku Clouds, Aroon and Aroon oscillators were all telling me to get out, lighten up. I just learned how to start reading Aroons this week, but been distracted, unfortunately. Will decide in the am what to do.
Aroon? Wow, Allie, you just keep leaving me in the dust with all your new technical indicators. I'll have to look at that one too. Hope it's easier to understand than Ichi Clouds was! :wacko:

I enjoyed reading your 'spring update' on the other site. :) Take care,
Lady

alevin
04-03-2009, 04:42 AM
You beat me to it, just didn't realize. Go back and look at your FAS/FAZ post from 3/16 in daily market talk, they're there. :bigsmile: I've looked at Aroons and Aroon Oscillators before but couldn't make head nor tail out of them just staring at them, kinda like Ichimokus which are coming fairly natural to me at this point, tho fine points still to be learned.

When in doubt, always read the instructions (they are there for Aroons and Aroon Oscillators in Stock Charts, I just never dug in on them til this week when I read some article that used them in the analysis-finally making sense to me, similar to ADX but not the same. Look at the Aroons same time as you look at ADX, comparison provides additional information.

etftalk
04-03-2009, 04:25 PM
I've seen this coming, didn't lighten up on GLD like I suspected I should a few days ago. Ichimoku Clouds, Aroon and Aroon oscillators were all telling me to get out, lighten up. I just learned how to start reading Aroons this week, but been distracted, unfortunately. Will decide in the am what to do.
Scribbler also mentioned to me that he was not as bullish on gold as others are. He sent me his first sample economic report in mid-March... https://www.tsptalk.com/members/htmupld/Economic032209.pdf. GLD is the last entry in the report.

XL-entLady
04-03-2009, 04:40 PM
Scribbler also mentioned to me that he was not as bullish on gold as others are. He sent me his first sample economic report in mid-March... https://www.tsptalk.com/members/htmupld/Economic032209.pdf. GLD is the last entry in the report.
I sold my GTU position this morning. Thinking hard about lightening up on my SLV, too. And I just have to mention that Scribbler's mid-March report is impressive! :)

Lady

XL-entLady
04-11-2009, 12:53 PM
Decisionmoose finally went from gold to cash this week.

http://www.decisionmoose.com/Moosecalls.html

Lady

etftalk
04-11-2009, 03:31 PM
Is that a buy signal? :)

XL-entLady
04-11-2009, 04:23 PM
Is that a buy signal? :)
The Moose usually has 'good' (as opposed to 'Cramer') signals. But in this :wacko: market, who knows?! :blink1:

:toung:

Lady

XL-entLady
04-15-2009, 05:29 PM
I sold my gold a couple of weeks ago ... but maybe I never 'owned' any anyway? :huh:

April 15, 2009
Golden Shorts in an Economic Winter
by The Mogambo Guru

http://safehaven.com/images/pixel.gif http://safehaven.com/images/mogambo/13089.jpg"Avery Goodman at Seekingalpha.com asks the intriguing question, "Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default?"
If I had been writing it, I would have titled it "Not All Of The People In The World Are Stupid!" with the subhead, "There are lots of smart people who are buying gold to capitalize on the sheer stupidity of governments abusing fiat currencies so that inflation in prices will soar as inflation in the money supply soars, until gold-owning people, giddy with greedy glee, will say, 'The Mogambo was right! Whee! This investing stuff is easy!'"
But I am not here to show off how good I am at coming up with boffo headlines with the subtle undertones so that they offer me a job, at a fabulous salary, to write headline gems like this one; this is about how "On Tuesday morning, gold derivatives dealers, who had sold short in the face of a fast rising gold price, faced a serious predicament. Some 27,000+ contracts, representing about 15% of the April COMEX gold futures contracts remained open" indicating that, as holders of those long gold contracts, they "demanded" delivery of the physical gold "by holding futures contracts past the expiration date."
The big problem belongs to the short-sellers of gold, who are finding, suddenly, that "long buyers were demanding in droves" - demanding physical gold bars, when, apparently, there were not enough.
Since I am confused as to what all of this means, Mr. Goodman correctly interprets the blank look on my face as puzzlement - if not outright befuddlement - and patiently explains that to keep things in perspective, history has shown that people investing in COMEX futures don't necessarily want physical gold, and that they are merely speculators, as, "In normal times, very few people do this. Only about 1% or less of gold contracts must be delivered. The lack of delivery demand allows the casino-like world of paper gold futures contracts to operate. Very few short sellers actually expect or intend to deliver real gold. They are, mostly, merely playing with paper" which is the basis of the alleged gold and silver scams, as GATA.org and Ted Butler have long exposed, which gets us talking about how corrupt regulators are these days, as everything is else corrupted these days, which is, of course, just what you would expect at the end of long monetary booms, which doesn't make it any more palatable.
But back to our story of the almost-default at COMEX... Fortunately, at the last minute, Deutsche Bank delivered "a massive 850,000 ounces, or 8500 contracts worth of the yellow metal."
This is where I kind of lost interest, as this kind of thing is like blood in the water to sharks, who will soon be looking at the low price of gold and the complete lack of supply of bullion, and they will be hatching plots to squeeze this disparity and make a lot of money, and I was soon fantasizing about how my tiny little stash of gold will soar and everybody else who doesn't own gold will be busted out, now that the scam has been busted, and there will be people, like cute college coeds, who will be so desperate that they will say they are willing to do anything for money, and I will say, "Anything?" and then they will quickly affirm, "Anything!", and so I again ask, but with a rakishly raised eyebrow and licking my lips in a lascivious manner, "Anything?" and they gulp and say, but without their former enthusiasm, "Anything"... So you can see how I was distracted.
And anyway, somewhere along the line he admits that it is "circumstantial evidence" that Deutsche Bank was a major holder of short positions, or that "the gold used by Deutsche Bank to deliver and fulfill its COMEX obligations, came directly or indirectly, from the ECB", which gets back to the headline "Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default?" that we were discussing previously.
All of this, of course, is fraudulently criminal in many, many ways, breaks a lot of regulations in those and other ways, and he calls for investigations and indictments and all of that stuff, which won't happen because the amount of corruption at the end of long monetary booms is so pandemic that it won't be allowed.
Now, before I go off ranting and raving about how another bunch of scumbags perpetrated another scam with compliance from government scumbags, let's concentrate on the important fact that not only are a bunch of guys buying gold and demanding delivery of the actual metal, but now increasing demand has swamped supply! Amazing!
In conclusion, let me say that if people don't buy gold, in spite of the overwhelming historical evidence to do so when the money supply is set to double (and then double again and again!), in spite of gold's gains for the last decade, in spite of the sight of people suddenly taking delivery of physical gold in unprecedented amounts, and in spite of me telling them right to their faces to buy gold, then there is something very, very wrong with them, which ought to give them something to think about as they are idly scratching around in the dirt looking for bugs to eat, because this economic mess caused by a Congress constantly deficit-spending and a Federal Reserve constantly creating the money for them to do so is going to get Really, Really Nasty (RRN), and I am scared for me and for them.
But I am not as scared when I have gold, so at least I have that going for me! Whee!"

http://safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=13089&pv=1


Lady

Bullitt
04-24-2009, 01:38 AM
Missed my GTC GDX buy order at 30.96 which I set this weekend. Stupid me, if I would have just set it a little above the close last friday it would have hit. Still have a good cost average, but I'm looking to buy the dips here.

I think I'll move that order up to the low, low 31's.

Bullitt
04-24-2009, 01:41 AM
I just have to mention that Scribbler's mid-March report is impressive!

I agree. He did a good piece on Gold for those who are looking for some thoughts about the metal outside of the Armageddon realm we're used to.

alevin
04-24-2009, 03:18 AM
Yes, I'm still looking at GDX. Glad to finally have a price target for unloading my residual GLD, still have slightly more than half what I originally bought. If I unload at 95, I'll just about break even on the original trade, what a goal, eh? call it tuition.

etftalk
04-27-2009, 04:26 AM
Intermediate-term starting to look a little more bullish here. If the inverse H&S pattern continues, we could see 1000 in 6 weeks or so - then a breakout during the summer.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/042609.gif

alevin
04-28-2009, 02:43 PM
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2009/images/0427_clip_image004.gif


In our... chart, above, is plotted data at which we have looked before. This time it has been rearranged to give a forward-looking picture. The solid green line is the monthly average of U.S. $Gold price, and uses the right axis. Line of red circles is the inflationary component of U.S. money supply growth. For that we used an annualized six month rate of change. It is plotted versus the left axis. Additionally, it is advanced twelve months. The far right hand red dot is data for April 2009 but plotted as if it influences the $Gold price in April 2010.

Previously, we used the acceleration in U.S. monetary inflation to identify lows, or short-term bottoms, in the price of $Gold. In this chart we are attempting to use the peak rate of inflationary monetary growth to project out the price of $Gold. Each of the two previous highs in $Gold were associated with highs in inflationary U.S. monetary growth of twelve months before.
Were no other factors operating on $Gold, this chart suggests a low by September. It also suggests a new high that all of us would enjoy by this time next year. $Gold may be moving through the last great buying opportunity this Summer, assuming all other factors unchanged or the same.
However, not all factors are the same this year. ......
Chinese people have one of the highest saving rates in the world. That high savings rate exists for a variety of reasons. Will Chinese savers respond to the news of the PNB buying Gold? How will Chinese investors respond to a new high in Chinese ¥Gold? And keep in mind, more wealth will be created in the next decade in China than has ever been created in any single decade. Investors need to now watch two Gold charts, one denominated in their home currency and one in Chinese Yuan.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2009/0427.html

Where is FRIXXX when you need him?:eek::nuts: I haven't figured out yuan yet, much less "gold in yuan", guess I'd better start.

XL-entLady
04-28-2009, 02:59 PM
I just sold the last of my precious metals, so that is a definite signal for the rest of you that it will start going up!

Lady

justbizness45
04-30-2009, 01:36 AM
I just sold the last of my precious metals, so that is a definite signal for the rest of you that it will start going up!

Lady

I'll take it!! I still have a position in SLV @ 13.00. My physical silver was bought @ 10.00 and 12.50. Still waiting for it to go up, up, up!!:sick:

alevin
04-30-2009, 02:53 AM
To go along with the article I posted earlier today-here's a website to help keep track of gold in yuan and gold in $. Still have to do a y/oz vs. $/oz ratio calculation to see relative direction and magnitude of forex change in gold priced in yuan vs. dollar. It can be done-even w/o Frixx, just takes a little more work is all. :)

example tonight spot gold NY is $6125.65yuan/oz vs. spot gold NY $898.3/oz. exchange ratio is $.1466/yuan = $14.66/100 yuan. As the ratio goes up, yuan gets more valuable, price of gold goes down in yuan, goes up in $terms (if I'm wrong, somebody please tell me!).

If ratio goes down, yuan becomes less valuable, price of gold goes up in yuan, price goes down in $terms (If I'm wrong, somebody please please tell me!).

Now what that all means to the price of tea in China, I haven't even begun to figure out. :wacko:

justbizness45
05-01-2009, 01:56 AM
Mojo over on TSP Talk posted this. Interesting data.

It just recently came to my attention from two different confidential sources that JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have been buying large amounts of Calls in gold and silver. This made me put on my gumshoes and take a serious poke around the COMEX option open interest once again.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=OGR&t=LIST&m=26882541&l=0&pd=0&r=0 (http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=OGR&t=LIST&m=26882541&l=0&pd=0&r=0)

Bullitt
05-21-2009, 07:39 PM
Reverse H&S still intact for GLD. I suspect most buying this week was a result of Paulson and Co's recent quarterly disclosure of their GLD holding though.

I think we're going to see the Reverse H&S work out some time over the summer.

XL-entLady
05-21-2009, 09:39 PM
Has anyone invested in CEF as opposed to GLD and SLV? CEF holds gold and silver bullion both. And it's still cheap. Thoughts anyone?

Lady

etftalk
05-21-2009, 09:54 PM
I haven't, but it sounds like an interesting option.

Bullitt
05-21-2009, 10:58 PM
CEF currently trades at a 9% premium to NAV. Not that it's a bad thing, but I only buy those closed end funds when they trade at a discount. If gold sells off hard, this could possibly drop, but I wouldn't count on it.

Good thought though with Canada and their commodities. Also there's EWC which has some more volume and isn't trading to more than .34% of a premium. I read that the oil sands can produce oil at lower prices now than a year ago.

alevin
05-22-2009, 01:32 PM
After reading this, think I'll hang onto my GLD a little longer....
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/update-on-the-gold-market-may-21/#more-3962



...I’ve also drawn a Fibonacci grid off the October lows to the February highs to show the retracement grid gold is showing on its daily chart as well - gold nipped just beneath the 38.2% retracement zone but failed to pullback to the 50% zone, which is a sign of bullishness and strength in an uptrend.
Price just completed a consolidation phase which caused the 20 and 50 day EMAs to converge, giving bulls something to sweat about, but ultimately price has risen back above these levels and now the moving average orientation is in the ‘most bullish position’ possible, giving further confirmation to the uptrend in place.
Price is expected to test the prior resistance high just shy of $975 per ounce, and if buyers can push prices beyond this level (I believe odds favor that they can), then we’ll see an automatic test of the $1,000 level highs and I - along with Adam and others - feel that odds do favor a break above this level to new highs is in our immediate future.
I would be remiss not to give levels to ‘watch out’ for in the event that higher prices fail to materialize, so keep your eye on the $900 level which represents EMA confluence and “round number” support. ...
Since I bought at 91.5 awhile back, it'd be nice to score enough profit off this trade to at least pay the trading fees before bowing out, which is why I'm going to hang in and see how high this puppy can go.:)

Bullitt
05-22-2009, 03:43 PM
Yup, any day now the chartists and momentum followers should be piling in just because the GLD is moving up. The whole world is watching for the H&S breakout now.

Bullitt
05-30-2009, 08:46 PM
Ancient history now, but anyone positioned for this next move up might enjoy this article regarding Paulson & Co's latest holdings.

http://tinyurl.com/mwxtzf

Bullitt
06-27-2009, 06:08 PM
Bought more GDX this past week on the dip at 36.65, bringing my cost basis to 28.

Might be a good time for trend followers to buy some EWC (Canada ETF) after a test of the 50 DMA.

What is going to happen if the whales start jumping into the swimming pool?


...Chinese comments about the metal and expectations that a low interest-rate environment will eventually lead to inflation.

The late-Wednesday outcome of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting may have ended up supporting gold, as low U.S. rates are bearish for the dollar from a yield point of view, said a research report from MKS Finance. "However, the meeting's outcome came as no surprise to investors and had already been priced into the market."

Meanwhile, Kurzatkowski and MKS cited overnight comments out of China as supportive for gold. A Chinese economic official spoke of purchasing gold rather than U.S. Treasurys in case of a collapse in the greenback. www.wsj.com (http://www.wsj.com)

Bullitt
08-27-2009, 11:20 PM
I've had a GTC order on GDX to buy more at the mid 33's for a few months now. Almost hit in early July, but not quite.

Palladium and Copper look to be getting a bit stretched from their last base here and they tend to have some relative strength in the metals arena. Lots of eyes on Gold at the moment and I'm not sure what to think. I do have a vested interest if Gold breaks that 1004 barrier.

Bullitt
09-03-2009, 12:02 AM
Huge technical breakout today in GLD which confirmed it's uptrend on it's best volume since March.

My good til canceled in GDX at 33 and change expired. I will assess and may buy more at a pullback to 42, but I doubt it. I think this weekend I will scour the Juniors scene and look for the best looking charts amongst them for possible purchase.

Bullitt
09-08-2009, 01:03 PM
The moment the entire investing world has been waiting for. There's always a bull market somewhere.

Gold Breaks $1,000 (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h5JRwPgiiw1s1OQ2nMg0svKpPEZwD9AJ4TQG2)

etftalk
09-08-2009, 02:00 PM
Wow, the inverse H&S target would be 1200 to 1300.

Bullitt
09-08-2009, 07:24 PM
It's not going to be a straight shot to that level. That would be too easy.

Bullitt
09-08-2009, 07:36 PM
Looked over some juniors over the weekend, but I'm very much on the fence about getting involved in any stocks that have been bid up from pennies to 4 or 5 bucks. Some do have some promising base patterns but most have run away. My guess is, the ones that are still basing are probably more of a company on paper than real life. Juniors are basically lotto tickets, you can't just go all in on one. Still observing here because I expect a shakeout in gold any day now.

By the way, a Junior Miner ETF is in the works by Van Eck Global. No release date has been set yet.

alevin
09-09-2009, 04:45 AM
Looked over some juniors over the weekend, but I'm very much on the fence about getting involved in any stocks that have been bid up from pennies to 4 or 5 bucks. Some do have some promising base patterns but most have run away. My guess is, the ones that are still basing are probably more of a company on paper than real life. Juniors are basically lotto tickets, you can't just go all in on one. Still observing here because I expect a shakeout in gold any day now.

By the way, a Junior Miner ETF is in the works by Van Eck Global. No release date has been set yet.

I've been mulling toe in water on a couple jrs. myself, haven't settled on any particular ones but know which ones are being talked about. The ETF idea might be something I'd rather play with a little, actually. I am sitting on some decent cash from the runup in one of oil and gas plays I sold lately. Altho I got a weird vibe from a chatboard comment elsewhere yesterday talking about taxes owed on phantom profits in Limited Partnerships (LP's), which my sold stock would be one of those.

Wondering if I'm going to get hit with a taxes owed bill? Nah, it was in my Roth account (it was supposed to be a dividend producer but changed their rules after I bought it-no dividends). Bingo! I'd been beating myself up for not buying it in the taxable account where I wanted some cap. gains rather than interest earned tax issues, now I have a good reason to buy it again in the Roth account sometime or other again when the fundamentals look good again. Whew! :D

Show-me
09-09-2009, 10:40 AM
https://www.apmex.com/Default.aspx?gclid=CIeRtIGr5JwCFcZM5QodWVcPGw

alevin
09-09-2009, 02:27 PM
thanks Show! that's a good site. I've been thinking of buying some PM but the Australian mint wants a minimum of $10K to buy gold from them (storage included), which I don't have laying around. The Apmex site says can buy some of their silver coinage for IRA accounts, not just for personal "cash" on hand, and its in affordable quantities. Now THAT I like!

Bullitt
09-17-2009, 12:24 AM
Even within the gold headlines and bullishness, I'd be careful with this ETF guys. It's backed by actual gold, so I wonder how that's going to affect liquidity when they need to unload those gold bars on the next downturn.

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090916005594&newsLang=en

etftalk
10-12-2009, 08:47 PM
For anyone trading GDX:

The Ebbchart's return trading GDX in 2009 is +115.2%. At the same time the GDX is up 42%.

Bullitt
10-14-2009, 01:44 PM
Most of my GDX shares will convert to LT Cap Gains in the next few weeks.

etftalk
10-14-2009, 05:46 PM
Cool! Hopefully, gold won't tank in the interim. :eek:

Are you considering selling once you have the LT locked in? I'm a little worried about a rally in the dollar so I may sell soon.

Bullitt
10-14-2009, 06:14 PM
I do think the dollar will rally a little bit here just so that the drop isn't so obvious so there will probably be some Fed jawboning here soon.

The HUI is facing a little bit of resistance, but I'm thinking it's going to at least 500. As long as the Fed keeps rates low, it's hard to make a case against gold, which I'm very bullish and have been for a few months now. I know I've been gold bearish in the past, but we're in uncharted waters here- not only in real life, but on the charts. The only sellers of gold now are profit takers, not folks looking to break even.

Also, I won't be surprised when China or Russia comes out some time in the next month or two and says, "We've been diversifying further into hard assets as a dollar hedge."

I'll post when I ring the bell. Since this is in my taxable, I'd really like to make it 100% LT Cap Gains before bailing but sometimes, you just can't help it.

Bullitt
10-29-2009, 12:13 AM
HUI is under pressure but Gold remains above 1K. I may add to my gold related holdings once the dollar rally picks up steam.

Meanwhile, here's what the smart money is doing with Gold.


Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Russia is considering selling gold on world markets to cash in on high prices as the government faces its first budget deficit in a decade. Kudrin's remarks follow a report last week that the Gokhran precious metals depository was planning to sell up to 50 metric tons, or 1.6 million ounces, of gold in London by the end of the year. With gold prices reaching record highs of over $1,000 per ounce, the sale could bring Russia some $1.7 billion. The finance minister gave no details Wednesday in remarks to journalists carried by state news agencies.http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hixr2M_Qx1JQ-RsMvvAlU1RwLPiwD9BK83Q82

JTH
11-02-2009, 01:56 PM
HUI is under pressure but Gold remains above 1K. I may add to my gold related holdings once the dollar rally picks up steam.

Meanwhile, here's what the smart money is doing with Gold.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hixr2M_Qx1JQ-RsMvvAlU1RwLPiwD9BK83Q82

Bu the end of the year? I wonder if this flood the market and bring the price down.

Bullitt
11-03-2009, 09:17 PM
Got GLD?

I have had open GTC orders on GDX to buy at high 39's, but we might not see that day soon. Also had GTC buys on a few juniors, but they have pulled far away from those prices. India is a buyer, and they aren't waiting for gold to go below $1K. What's going to happen when China starts to diversify?

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091103-712481.html

Bullitt
11-09-2009, 04:09 PM
Looks like the world is slowly becoming more and more bullish towards gold. The Gold Bugs really can't complain because they've been waiting for this day their entire lives. Here's my question- Will they get caught up in the euphoria or will they cash in their profits?

I think they're going to get washed away in the bullishness.

No way, absolutely no way I'd be a buyer of gold at these levels, especially physical gold. And to those who own physical gold- I always thought I'd sell my baseball cards for a profit, but when you have something you can look at and hold, it makes it much more difficult to unload. Don't fall in love.

etftalk
11-09-2009, 04:12 PM
A lot of $1200 to $1300 calls for this leg up. Of course the "end of the world" folks still say $2000 - $5000.

I like to take profits, as you can tell, since I apparently sold way too early.

Bullitt
11-12-2009, 05:52 PM
I'm sure that GDXJ is trading at a premium today due to the Cramorons piling in at the open. It's top ten holdings have been hammered the past 2 days, but the ETF is down only a few percent from it's offer at 26. With the volatility of the juniors, I don't expect too many members of Cramerica to stick with this one.

Gold is going down to near 1,000 very soon to wipe out all the folks who jumped on board thinking it was a safe bet against the dollar. Also, many believe the bottom is 1045, the price that India was a buyer. There's no such thing as a safe investment, and gold is no exception.

I am in the belief that gold is in a secular bull market. Looks like the dollar may be moving up here which should partially unwind the short dollar, long commodity play in the near term. I'd consider any move in the dollar a bear market bounce.

Bullitt
12-04-2009, 02:37 PM
GDX and GLD filling the gaps today. This dollar strength should provide a good entry for anyone looking to add precious metals.

etftalk
12-07-2009, 05:14 PM
Perhaps we'll see a pullback to down near 1000, the breakout level. We saw a similar pullback in '08, and while it will take patience, it could be the ideal place to buy.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/120709.gif

Bullitt
12-08-2009, 08:57 PM
1000 sounds good. This might be the last chance to get on the Gold bandwagon at a reasonable price. GDX broke the 50 DMA today which is another indicator of gold about to drop. GDXJ got hammered too, but we knew that was going to happen as soon as Cramer endorsed it. It's all good, like I said, this is a buying opportunity.

etftalk
12-21-2009, 05:24 PM
Down to 1090. It's now hitting the rising trendline. May be time to dip a toe in the water, but I'd still rather see 1000.

Bullitt
12-21-2009, 08:59 PM
GDXJ may not be a bad way to play gold for the final run up. Cramer gave it the kiss of approval around 27, so I'm sure most of those players are getting washed out.

etftalk
12-21-2009, 09:32 PM
Thanks. I'll check out GDXJ, although I'm thinking about just going straight to the gold futures. That UNG action left a bad taste in my mouth for commodity ETF's. Of course if I put it in my IRA I will have to use the ETFs.

Bullitt
12-21-2009, 09:42 PM
GDXJ is a basket of juniors. I learned a good lesson with UNG as well. That fund wasn't designed for a contango environment.

I need a pair of lucky shoes like the ones PTJ wore.

Bullitt
01-12-2010, 04:42 PM
Sold out at the open today in GDX with a 70% gain at an average cost of $28; most of which qualifies for LT cap gains.

The bullish commodity story is front page news now. China imported record amounts of oil in December and now claims gold is too expensive. I believe the dollar is done going down only because the consensus now believes that the US will hit hyperinflation with gold doubling from today's prices. Not to mention that nice bearish candle in GDX last night, the party is over. The keg is nearly kicked. I lost my mojo in 2007-2008 and I've finally feeling it coming back.

I think there is some more upside to gold, maybe to 1180 or 1200 tops, but this rally is completely out of control. Absolutely, completely out of control. Don't ever fall in love with a stock or ETF, no matter what your gains may be. The gold story is a bunch of BS in my opinion. People become buy and holders when they get ruined or fall in love with a position and buy and hold doesn't work in the metals market since you don't collect a meaningful dividend.

Good luck to any longs out there.

etftalk
01-12-2010, 05:07 PM
Wow, very nice. 70% gain at the LT cap gain rate - sweet!

JEL_Futures
01-18-2010, 01:58 PM
Sold out at the open today in GDX with a 70% gain at an average cost of $28; most of which qualifies for LT cap gains.

The bullish commodity story is front page news now. China imported record amounts of oil in December and now claims gold is too expensive. I believe the dollar is done going down only because the consensus now believes that the US will hit hyperinflation with gold doubling from today's prices. Not to mention that nice bearish candle in GDX last night, the party is over. The keg is nearly kicked. I lost my mojo in 2007-2008 and I've finally feeling it coming back.

I think there is some more upside to gold, maybe to 1180 or 1200 tops, but this rally is completely out of control. Absolutely, completely out of control. Don't ever fall in love with a stock or ETF, no matter what your gains may be. The gold story is a bunch of BS in my opinion. People become buy and holders when they get ruined or fall in love with a position and buy and hold doesn't work in the metals market since you don't collect a meaningful dividend.

Good luck to any longs out there.

I just need it to get back above 1150.00 and stay there by mid Feb so I can take profits on my debit spread(I got lucky with a 3 to 1 Reward-Risk Ratio).:bigsmile: