S&P 851 or Bust

[etftalk]

Plus 851 or bust...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/020409c.gif

I wrote more about this the other day (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_2_3_09.html).

[Bullitt]

I'm looking at a break to the downside on that pennant as going to be a great fade. One of these days the boys are going to wake up and say, "Let's blow out some stops." VIX failed to make a higher high and confirmed it's downtrend today.

I'm going to be watching for the dip outside the pennant as close as I can in combination with the VIX for clues.

[etftalk]

I agree that a rally could be churning ... after a breakdown. I think we could see things get ugly in the short-term, but I would be a buyer of that looking for a scalp trade to the upside. I am watching the MACD right now which has a positive divergence, but I hate that the put call ratios are overly bullish.

That's why I like the idea of a panic sell-off (to raise bearishness) then a snap back rally. Is that too much to ask? :)

[teknobucks]

here i feel like we are clinging onto a governmental support level...ie the market needs another 40% or so to price in reality (not the bs pe's we get fed.)

perhaps we need to seek a portfolio that would flourish with war...how ironic if lmt happens to be the hal of this obama admin ...the most liberal ever ;)

feel we ( the world ) are about to be drawn into major conflict. spent some time last night looking at comodities overall...shooting war has gotta be close folks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOgC4ObYH-o&feature=related


got gold?

[teknobucks]

not to belittle the iraq and afgan ops.

but the war we will see soon will be much broader and fiercer

[Gumby]

I agree that a rally could be churning ... after a breakdown. I think we could see things get ugly in the short-term, but I would be a buyer of that looking for a scalp trade to the upside. I am watching the MACD right now which has a positive divergence, but I hate that the put call ratios are overly bullish.

That's why I like the idea of a panic sell-off (to raise bearishness) then a snap back rally. Is that too much to ask? :)

That sounds great to me. :bigsmile:

[Bullitt]

We have the potential to run a couple million stop loss orders on the short ETF types around SPX 855-860. The boys are going to put it on just as main street is reading the horrendous job figures.

I'm currently as bullish as I was in early March 2008 in regards to the general market. A Dow theory buy is a bit of a ways off, but I see less risk on the long side than short side at this point. For those who read the daily charts and 5 minute tickers in search of the holy grail or are just looking to make that 1-2% on an in/out trade, I think it's time to take a step back and observe the forest, not the leaves. I truly believe that a run to 1050-1100 SPX could happen by springtime. It's not going to be a straight shot and I expect chartists to get hammered along the way with whipsaws just as any chartist has been hammered in the gold sector since the November lows.

[etftalk]

Early breakout...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/temp/020609.gif

[teknobucks]

holding shorts selling longs into this

[Bullitt]

What do you guys think about 850 as a support level? Nice volume surge in the last few minutes there. Probably a little bit of 'Cover me at any price!!!' I think I saw 25 million shares traded in SPY on the uptick in the last minute of trading alone. That's more than some ETF's trade in a month!

[XL-entLady]

What do you guys think about 850 as a support level?
I think two things: (1) It's been an important support/resistance level since last October, and (2) the market's don't care what I think! :toung:

Lady