Silver

[XL-entLady]

Silver



http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/Silver_coin_hoard.jpg/800px-Silver_coin_hoard.jpg (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/Silver_coin_hoard.jpg)

[XL-entLady]

I don't have Spaf's magical way with charts, so this thread won't begin as informatively as his "Gold" thread did. But SLV has been behaving in a most intriguing manner since mid-December. So I wanted to start a thread for discussing the silver market.

How about it?

Lady

[Show-me]

I am addicted to physical silver so I am tainted in any advise.:bigsmile:

[XL-entLady]

Articles on silver are all over the daily news sites I read. From a contrarian point of view that could be a bad thing? If everyone is talking about it, is it over? It's on my watch list. Now that it's the Flavor of the Month :rolleyes: I'm trying to decide if I really should buy on the next pullback or if it's going to flash and be over.

This first article makes silver sound like a great longterm move though.

The Gold Bull Market Has a Silver Lining (http://www.greenfaucet.com/node/5853)

By Adam Hamilton, 2/6/2009


"...One new long-term elite silver-stock investment we made in Zeal Intelligence (http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm) in November in the heart of the panic was already up 81.9% as of this week. It pays big to be brave when everyone else is afraid. Indeed, since those depths silver has strengthened considerably. Over the past week it has averaged $12.46, 34.1% higher than its average $9.29 close in the week leading to its panic low.

This impressive run in silver has led some traders to wonder whether it is getting overbought and the short-term risk-reward equation is shifting out of its favor. With a good fraction of my own capital deployed in physical silver and various silver stocks, silver's near-term outlook intrigues me too. Of course I am very bullish on silver in a secular sense, but after my research this week I'm bullish on the coming months too...."

http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical-analysis/the-gold-bull-market-has-a-silver-lining/42312


Hey! Look At Silver (http://www.greenfaucet.com/node/5856)

By Brad Zigler, 2/6/2009

"Have you seen silver recently? The metal's taken out some significant overhead resistance. This is not just some technical prattle; silver's rally has developed some legs. ..."

http://www.greenfaucet.com/node/5856

Lady

[justbizness45]

Silver is great!! paper, bullion, coin, jewelry or clay. It don't matter to me. :nuts: I bought my coin silver at 10.00 an ounce. It was 13.15 today so I'm not complaining!!

[Bullitt]

Looking for thoughts here on SSRI, a silver miner.

Do you guys see a possible cup and handle here? Same with SLV, cup and small handle with a pivot price of $13.50. Both may be something to watch for a big volume move to the upside.

[etftalk]

I don't see the handles - just the cups.

[XL-entLady]

What Gold And Silver ETFs’ Relationship Means To You

By Tom Lydon (http://www.dailymarkets.com/author/tomlydon/) on February 20, 2009

"Precious metals and their related exchange traded funds (ETFs) are being bought up as worried investors fear the consequences of government spending sprees and looming inflation.



Silver has enjoyed a renaissance of its own, as the price has rallied for the past four weeks. This is the reality of the recession beginning to drive investors to precious metals and tangibles. Silver Investing News reports (http://www.silverinvestingnews.com/1014/goldsilver-price-ratio-narrowing.html) that silver is outshining gold in the performance category, as it rose four times faster than gold. The gold/silver price ratio is down 7 points in the past month.

The ratio tends to narrow in times of financial turmoil. In past recessions, it has hovered around 1:38. Today, it’s around 1:70, nearly twice what it was in the 1980s recession.
Silver’s rising price is outpacing gold’s price: silver has increased by 21%, while gold has risen 13%.
Motley Fool says that silver offers more potential for the upside than gold and is a good complement to gold exposure.
Some predictions have the gold/silver ratio dipping to 1:20 in the current recession.
The price ratio isn’t a driving force in the market, but it does impact silver more than it does gold.
As governments devalue currencies to pay for our current financial crisis, speculators have increased demand for precious metals, reports Pham-Duy Nguyen for Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=a0jbfnTWPnoo&refer=canada).
Gold made advances for the third consecutive day as giddy investors in Asia ran for the cover of the metal safe haven. The precious metal is at its highest price since July, as low interest rates and government spending has many on edge, reports Glenys Sim for Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=akhDpBzjlLDo).
Gold has reached $975 an ounce. The gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD (http://www.dailymarkets.com/symbol/GLD/): 95.77 0.00 0.00%), is up 3.3% in the last week and up 14.4% in the last month; up 31.4% over past three months.
http://etftrends.redinews.com/tools/C04?queryid=QJ33042&symbol=gld
UBS AG metals strategists forecast a sustainable price at $1,000 an ounce for gold and maybe even higher gains for this year.
Silver futures for March delivery reached $14.01 an ounce in New York. The silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust (SLV (http://www.dailymarkets.com/symbol/SLV/): 13.888 0.00 0.00%), is up 4.9% in the last week and up 27.7% in the last month; up 52.4% over past three months.
http://etftrends.redinews.com/tools/C04?queryid=QJ33042&symbol=slv
"

http://www.dailymarkets.com/contributor/2009/02/19/what-gold-and-silver-etfs%e2%80%99-relationship-means-to-you/

I started watching silver a year ago based on a comment from Show-me. I now own the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Proshares UltraSilver (AGQ), and silver miners (SLW and SSRI). I intend to hold them for quite a while.

Lady

[Bullitt]

Major breakdown of SSRI yesterday. (Sorry about the individual stocks, but no silver miner ETF yet.)

SLW seems to be holding up nicely, but I have a feeling it's one of those things where people want to get into silver stocks and are buying the lowest price one because they think it's 'the cheapest'. Of course, we all know that price is just an arbitrary number.

[XL-entLady]

Major breakdown of SSRI yesterday. (Sorry about the individual stocks, but no silver miner ETF yet.)

SLW seems to be holding up nicely, but I have a feeling it's one of those things where people want to get into silver stocks and are buying the lowest price one because they think it's 'the cheapest'. Of course, we all know that price is just an arbitrary number.
I looked at SSRI, SLW and PAAS when I was looking for my silver miner. Guess which one I picked? Yep, because it reached a pullback first, SSRI.:eek: It did well for a couple of months, but it's off the bottom of the bollinger bands now. Didn't have my stop set tight enough on that one. I'm a great believer in where silver is going, but I shouldn't have let sentiment cloud my judgement there.

One more tuition payment at ETF University! :toung:

Lady

[justbizness45]

Short vid on silver:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/10466919/35-silver-in-2-years.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1#14375381001

[justbizness45]

SLV's annual report:

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/090227/slv10-k.html

[JTH]

Any thoughts this week on SLV

I took a position on the current pullback @ 12.84 i could only hope that the market's buyers invest in a flight tot safety. :)

[etftalk]

It's had a decent pullback, but with the PMO crossover, it makes me a little nervous. I'd use somewhere just below the moving averages as a place to stop if you are long.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/030209c.gif

[JTH]

I see an inverted Head & Shoulders on the 10-day chart. SLV has pooped into the 13 dollar range for the first time in 6 days.

http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q261/Kendlefox/Slv2.jpg

http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q261/Kendlefox/SLV.jpg

[Show-me]

Wednesday night Jim Cramer, who I find only entertaining, was touting the importance of having 20% in precious metals and his favorite was SILVER. Because of the lag to gold. He recommended SLV and GLD.

The next morning some old guy was a guest on CNBC Squawk and he said no dollar denominated investments, no stock, I don't know when this will turn around, I may be dead before it happens and buy GOLD and SILVER but mainly SILVER because it is lagging GOLD historically.

Buy a gun and move in next to a Mormon too for food.

[JTH]

It seems there was an SLV 13.44 spike on the Yahoo charts, but it doesn't show up on USAA account.

[JTH]

I have to admit to myself that I'm a little disappointed with SLV's action today. I'm watching and wanting a close @ 13.25

http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q261/Kendlefox/slv3.jpg

[etftalk]

I have to admit to myself that I'm a little disappointed with SLV's action today. I'm watching and wanting a close @ 13.25

Not exactly keeping up with gold, huh? But it has a good chart and is up 7% from the Tuesday low. The reason I don't like SLV is that it's not an ultra. Too sluggish for me. :) I will watch AGQ, which is an ultra silver ETF.

[alevin]

Wednesday night Jim Cramer, who I find only entertaining, was touting the importance of having 20% in precious metals and his favorite was SILVER. Because of the lag to gold. He recommended SLV and GLD.

Buy a gun and move in next to a Mormon too for food.

LOL! I'm surrounded by LDS on 3 immediate sides, plus another 2 doors down on the 4th side. They are a tight-knit community, don't interact with us neighbors unless absolutely necessary, they talk to each other tho. They take care of their own, not the beyond-hope Gentiles like me. what I wonder is how many of the non-LDS people in the area know who they are, and whether those people will come hunting the LDS stashes if times get really desperate. Some of the LDS folks are hunters, some are not, plenty of normal hunting weaponry and personal-defense pistols in the neighborhood, LDS and non-LDS alike. They LDS, may choose to band with rest of us into a neighborhood watch program if it comes to that, but won't count on it. :rolleyes:

[JTH]

I'm loving me some silver, I'd like to see a few more things line up, but nevertheless, here is my current perspective.

http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q261/Kendlefox/8MARSLV.jpg

[alevin]

Nice chart, JTH. Is that the paid version of Stockcharts you're using?

[JTH]

Nice chart, JTH. Is that the paid version of Stockcharts you're using?

No, I'm too cheap, and it's not too often I get to watch the markets in real time anyways. I'll usually cut and past the chart in old school MS Paint and work on it in there. It's really simple yet somehow relaxing. :)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20550383138

[JTH]

A few hightlights http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aNa.15yVNltc&refer=canada (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aNa.15yVNltc&refer=canada)

Gold Falls, Halts 2-Day Rally as Demand Wanes; Silver Declines

Silver futures for May delivery fell 39.3 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $12.94 an ounce on Comex. The price gained 1.7 percent last week.

Most-active gold futures still are up 3.8 percent this year, while silver futures have risen 15 percent.

[etftalk]

I just listened to Ira. He thinks silver is still bullish, but is a non-trade at the moment.

http://iraepstein.linngroup.com/videos/midday-metals-report.html

[JTH]

but is a non-trade at the moment.

Thanks Tom, that is exactly how I "feel" :wacko: My trade @ 12.84 is stuck in limbo, it's not high enough to profit from and not low enough to run out of.

[etftalk]

I am now wishing I sold all of my AGQ (ultra silver). I sold half near the open because I was not sure what was happening with it (opened up 5% when silver was flat). It eventaully corrected.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/030909b.gif

I wonder if this is a possible day trade strategy - fade the move of ultra ETF's when they do not move with the main ETF. I'm not sure how often it happens, or if it ever happens to the larger ETFs like SSO or SDS, but apparently it does happen to some.

[JTH]

I am now wishing I sold all of my AGQ (ultra silver).

Wow, did you notice the 2x spike in volume most of which was before the 5% drop? Apparently you were'nt the only one who noticed it. :)

[Show-me]

I need a opinion.

One dollar index chart, does it look toppy and unable to break out?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693

Two, silver chart, bouncing off of 50 day moving average?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693

[etftalk]

It looks likes silver (SLV) is a play as long as it can stay above the March low (12.26). The dollar is baffling me and appears to be the cause of why silver, gold, oil, copper, etc., are not flying yet. I say the dollar looks toppy, but I have been saying that for a couple of month now.

[Show-me]

I have felt the same way about the dollar but until the BOE and ECB stop lowering their rates the dollar will appear stronger on the surface. Once they stop lowering rates I believe all hell will break loose by the way of inflation.

[JTH]

I need a opinion.

One dollar index chart, does it look toppy and unable to break out?



I'm looking at the ADX set @ 9

It seems that since Mid-December's upswing, the ADX trend strength has been decreasing. Currently, the ADX is on the weak side. The positive trend (+DI) is decending, while the negitive trend (-DI) is somewhat flat.

This is what I do know.

The previous two uptrends (Aug-Oct & Oct-Nov) were both met with an asending ADX, +DI, with a decending -DI.

This is what I don't know...

Why is the ADX & +DI tracking inversley with the uptrend?

Perhaps that is a sign of toppyness?

[JTH]

Silver's SLV is losing its luster and is not worth chasing at these levels. :(
Still, it's better than bonds :toung:

22

[etftalk]

Silver is perking up again, but needs another push to clear resistance and make a higher high.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/031309b.gif

[JTH]

Silver's SLV gaped down this morning .22 cents. :huh:

37

[JTH]

Silver's SLV gaped down this morning .22 cents. :huh:

Only to gap up today...

44

[etftalk]

I hate silver. :D Stopped out yesterday - straight up since.

[JTH]

I hate silver. :D Stopped out yesterday - straight up since.

Thing that urked me was how tempting it was to place a limit order, incase it bounced off 11.75 again. At those prices I was willing to be a buyer again. But I was sorta screwed anyways, since I didn't have enough buying power to justify the risk/reward ratio. :suspicious:

[JTH]

Our friend silver had an interesting week. If we get a market downturn next week I wonder what SLV will do?

Here are some different perspectives I'd like to share. These charts are looking at the price performance of Silver, Gold, Energy, Technology, and the Financials during different time frames.

Here are the last 14 trading days starting from the S&P 500's 676.53 March 9th close. While stocks were rocketing up, silver was left behind in the dust, but still turned in a respectable 2.98%
76

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is the same chart from the February 9th peak, to the March 6th low (intra-day low of 666.79). As you can see, Silver and Gold turned in over 2%, while the other sectors were dieing a horrible death.
77

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Finally, here is a Year-To-Date chart so we can look at a bigger time frame. Silver (SLV) has turned in an astounding 17.68%

78

[XL-entLady]

You've probably all seen this, but just in case. It fits nicely with JTH's chart post below.

Silver ETF: Good Option for Silver Investors

by: Manshu Verma March 28, 2009


"iShares Silver Trust (SLV (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/slv)) is the world’s larget silver ETF backed by physical stock of silver bullion. It trades on the NYSE Arca and is a good option for investors looking to invest in silver by means of an ETF. The sponsor of iShares Silver Trust (SLV (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/slv)) is Barclays Bank (BCS (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/bcs)).
Backed by Physical Silver Bullion
As on March 23rd the iShares Silver Trust (SLV (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/slv)) held 8,180.44 (http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssInvestmentTrusts/idUSLN01475120090323) tonnes of silver. This stock of silver is stored at SLV’s custodian — JP Morgan Chase (JPM (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/jpm)).
Some commodity funds not only hold the underlying commodity, but, on top of that, trade on the futures contracts of that commodity on exchanges like COMEX. SLV doesn’t do this. SLV takes delivery of physical silver, which complies with London Bullion Market Association (http://www.lbma.org.uk/) (LBMA) silver delivery rules.
There are other silver funds which take positions in silver by buying stock of silver mining companies. SLV doesn’t do that either.
Passive Investment Vehicle
This means that SLV is a passive investment vehicle and the price of the fund moves in tandem with silver prices. There are no fancy hedging or other active management techniques used by this silver ETF. The lack of active management means reduced expenses and fees.
SLV Price Movement
Here is a look at how the SLV ETF moved since September 2008. There was a 10:1 split on 21st September, so I am not including the chart which includes prices before that date (click to enlarge).

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/3/28/saupload_slv1_thumb1.jpg (http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/3/28/saupload_slv1.jpg)
Silver Mining vs Supply
In the past seven years — silver mining has increased from 591 million ounces in 2000 to 670.6 million ounces in 2007, which is a growth of 13% at a CAGR (http://www.onemint.com/2008/10/09/cagr-calculator/) of about 1.82%
At the same time the total demand has risen from 824 million ounces to 894.5 million ounces, which is an increase of 8.5% at a CAGR (http://www.onemint.com/2008/10/09/cagr-calculator/) of 1.18%



The gap between total demand and total supply is matched by:

Net Government Sales
Old Silver Scrap
Producer Hedging
Implied Net Investment / Disinvestment
Source: World Silver Survey 2008 (http://us.ishares.com/content/stream.jsp?url=/content/repository/material/prospectus/silver.pdf&mimeType=application/pdf)


Silver Demand Segments
While silver is generally thought of as a precious metal, its industrial use exceeds its use in jewelery and coins. Here is a break-up of 2007 silver usage segments (click to enlarge):
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/3/28/saupload_silver_usage1_thumb1.jpg (http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/3/28/saupload_silver_usage1.jpg)
This chart shows that the demand for physical silver is likely to be more stable than other precious metals like gold, which have a large component of discretionary spending built into their demand.
Source: World Silver Survey 2008 (http://us.ishares.com/content/stream.jsp?url=/content/repository/material/prospectus/silver.pdf&mimeType=application/pdf)
Silver Rally
Precious metals like gold and silver are getting increasingly popular because they are seen as effective hedges against stock market downturns. Like gold, silver is considered a good hedge against the stock market, as investors flock to safety in times of uncertainty.
The quantitative easing (http://www.onemint.com/2008/11/26/what-is-quantitative-easing/) that the Fed is currently employing is expected to result in massive inflation and fall in the value of dollar. This is another reason precious metals like silver are gaining in popularity and seeing a rally.
Conclusion
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/slv)) ETF is a good option for anyone who wants to invest in silver, but is not interested in holding huge quantities of physical silver. However, the prices of gold and silver have already gone up quite considerably and given the enormous interest in these metals lately — this may just be where the next bubble (http://www.onemint.com/2009/03/13/gold-is-the-next-bubble/) is forming."



http://seekingalpha.com/article/128278-silver-etf-good-option-for-silver-investors

Lady

[JTH]

Thanks Lady

That is a good backfill and very useful information. I'm somewhat surprised we are still using so much silver for photography. I imagine that will scale back over the next digital decade. As for a silver bubble, I don't think silver gets the respect it deserves. :rolleyes:

[justbizness45]

Thanks Lady

That is a good backfill and very useful information. I'm somewhat surprised we are still using so much silver for photography. I imagine that will scale back over the next digital decade. As for a silver bubble, I don't think silver gets the respect it deserves. :rolleyes:


Me either, but I may be biased because I own several pounds...:toung:

[JTH]

Both SLV & GLD gapped down at the open.

SLV filled its gap :)

Anyone know why GLD hasn't?

94

[etftalk]

Gold is an enigma. :)

[wwwtractor]

http://profit.ndtv.com/2009/04/03000252/G20-discussions-may-pull-down.html Maybe this explains it.

[etftalk]

Interesting... Thanks tractor!

[XL-entLady]

http://profit.ndtv.com/2009/04/03000252/G20-discussions-may-pull-down.html Maybe this explains it.
Very interesting. I keep reading people saying that we've got to go back to a gold standard to fix this. Apparently the world leaders are going in the opposite direction! :huh:

So now do I hold my GTU or not ..... hm-m-m-m.

Lady

[justbizness45]

I'm keeping my SLV.

[JTH]

I'll admit I haven't been keeping an eye on SLV lately, but I came across an article that concerned me, so I took a look at the charts and there seems to be a lot to look at.

111

[etftalk]

The chart doesn't look too good, but if the stocks rollover again, maybe it can salvage another move back toward the neckline (near 14 - 15) of what appeasr to be an inverse H&S pattern.

[etftalk]

Silver's running today. Up about 0.40.

[JTH]

Silver's running today. Up about 0.40.\

Nice gap! That is somewhat encouraging for the bears I suppose?

[XL-entLady]

I put a 4% stop on my remaining silver position. I may tighten it up even further. When it triggers I'm going to put the $ into something that is doing better in this market instead of doing a "buy and hope" again. :suspicious: :nuts:

Lady

[JTH]

SLV gapped down again, I'm watching that green trendline. :unsure:

123

[justbizness45]

Still holding my SLV and physical silver. It may take a few more months but I think this administration is going to spend us right into devaluing the dollar and gold/silver will take off.

[JTH]

Sometimes I like to point out the obvious :rolleyes:

Here are some 60 minute charts.

142

143

[JTH]

My SLW @ 7.69 is smoking rocket fueled crack. :toung: I don’t know which rising tide is rising which ship, but I like it. A little higher and I'll be setting a stop and then looking for a pullback.

OBTW, that's 3 gaps up I wonder what that means?



144

[JTH]

Warning

SLW has fallen below my baseline price of 7.69 :rolleyes:

159

[Bullitt]

SLW: Weekly chart sitting on 50 DMA. Hopefully the break out from the bear flag at the low 6's in the weekly chart holds.

[wwwtractor]

I think silver has recovered a little up to over $20 an ounce.

[etftalk]

Silver is running away from me. I was trying to buy the breakout of AGQ (2x silver) on any pullback near 131 (it was 132+ at the time) but my open order was never hit. That was 2 days ago. Today it is hitting 144. :rolleyes:

[etftalk]

Adding to some of my silver ETF, AGQ. This pullback hurts as I had some decent gains in this trade just a couple of days ago, but it looks like it is now or never for the silver trend.

My stop is below the trend...

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/agq1.gif

[Nate]

I've got my eye on SIVR. It wont perform like AGQ, but more in my price range for now. Still building that base. :wacko:

[etftalk]

Well, I just got stopped out of AGQ. Lots of volatility in silver. It may be a sign of the top. I may nibble on some ZSL (ultra short silver).

[etftalk]

I bought that ZSL (ultra short silver) @11.30 a few days ago and actually sold 1/4 of the position already after today's sell off in silver. It looks like silver needs to be sold on rallies.

[etftalk]

I just sold another 1/4 of my original position in ZSL.

This sucker could be ready to fly, but I had a pretty big position on, made a nice profit, and I'm now down to half a position.

Bought @ 11.30. Sold 1/4 position @ 12.16. Sold 1/4 @ 12.55. Still hold 1/2 position.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/zsl.gif

[XL-entLady]

Sweet! Good job.

[etftalk]

I just sold another 1/4 of my original position in ZSL.

This sucker could be ready to fly, but I had a pretty big position on, made a nice profit, and I'm now down to half a position.

Bought @ 11.30. Sold 1/4 position @ 12.16. Sold 1/4 @ 12.55. Still hold 1/2 position.

Adding here at 11.86.

[etftalk]

Wow! I just got back from lunch. Looks like silver took another dive. I'm glad I made the move.

We got to keep selling those rallies in silver (or buy ZSL - ultra short silver). :)

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/zsl2.gif

[XL-entLady]

Good luck!

[etftalk]

Yikes! Silver jumps! Hope its temporary.

ZSL got swatted, but still hanging on. Either a great buying opportunity, or I'll be stopped out soon.

[etftalk]

I'm glad I took those profits on that half position in ZSL a while back, but I have been back in a full position and was nearly stopped out (came within 0.05). I have a sell stop at 10.40 for 1/2 pos., and another at 9.90 for the other 1/2.

Not looking good but I believe silver is trying to top and we are just seeing the volatility that comes with a top.

[etftalk]

I have a sell stop at 10.40 for 1/2 pos., and another at 9.90 for the other 1/2.
Stopped out of half position. :mad:

[etftalk]

Stopped out of full position. I hate silver. :)

[wwwtractor]

I love that SLV. Up almost 50% since I purchased. I probably should sell before it falls again.

[etftalk]

Nice. Glad you hung on.

I made some money on that short, but gave it back on this latest move higher. It's seems to be "toppy" but it can very volatile during the topping process.

[burrocrat]

Aahhh, I can't hardly stand it anymore, I've been wanting to short silver hard for about 2 weeks now.

What is a good vehicle for that? Say about a 1-6 week time horizon for the trade?

[XL-entLady]

Aahhh, I can't hardly stand it anymore, I've been wanting to short silver hard for about 2 weeks now.

What is a good vehicle for that? Say about a 1-6 week time horizon for the trade?
Well, I've been watching ZSL, which is a -2x fund. I've been waiting for it to get below $15 and its almost there. I have a lot of silver so I'm thinking of picking this up as a hedge.

I don't know of a straight short fund right now but I'll keep my eyes open.

[etftalk]

I have a lot of silver so...
Nice!!

[etftalk]

Adding to some of my silver ETF, AGQ. This pullback hurts as I had some decent gains in this trade just a couple of days ago, but it looks like it is now or never for the silver trend.

Can you believe this? 4 months ago AGQ was near 140. Now 331.

Now I remember why I didn't get rich during the dot com bubble. I sell too early!

[etftalk]

Aahhh, I can't hardly stand it anymore, I've been wanting to short silver hard for about 2 weeks now.

What is a good vehicle for that? Say about a 1-6 week time horizon for the trade?
If you do short it, nibble in and only add if the chart weakens. It's a runaway train right now. Shorts can get run over.

[wwwtractor]

SLV is up 100% since I bought it. I am happy with that.

[etftalk]

SLV is up 100% since I bought it. I am happy with that.
Ya think? :nuts:

Sweet trade!

[XL-entLady]

SLV is up 100% since I bought it. I am happy with that.
Congratulations. I was slower than you to get on the train. My cost basis is around $38, so I've made about 20% so far. I'll take that. <giant happy face>

[burrocrat]

I just can't pull the trigger on this one, it scares me. Could an investment in ZSL go to zero if you hold it long enough and if the market keeps rising? How long can one sit in the fund without locking in losses before fees and churning costs of the underlying paper in the fund start to seriously erode the original investment?

[burrocrat]

Would the things that might strengthen the US dollar tend to drag on the price of silver and cause ZSL to make money?

Say like, an FED statement indicating strengthing the dollar instead of debasing it? Or a rise in interest rates that dampen economic recovery and less demand for metals? Or if legislators get serious about tightening up the federal budget? Or the hot trend crowd starts chasing real estate instead? Those things would be good for ZSL right?

How fast does it move? Should you check on it every week? Day? Hourly? I would have to set stops because I don't trade during the day job, and I'm sure I don't know enough about the technicals to set logical smart ones. I usually place day-only orders set at prices that look good to me in the general percent range I'm comfortable selling for profit or getting in at, like 29.99, or 26.25 or stuff like that.

[burrocrat]

OK, I just couldn't resist any longer, bought a block of ZSL at $15.09. The only way I learn is by doing. But I'd be glad for any analysis or play by play you might have.

I plan on getting out in two stages so the extra trading fees will take a bite, It's going to have to move big to be worthwhile.

[etftalk]

Good luck burro! I would think $50 will be a tough nut to crack. It may break it on the way up, but you'd suspect there will be profit takers at that level - at least temporarily. Who knows, though? These freight trains can be tough to stop.

[burrocrat]

Good luck burro! I would think $50 will be a tough nut to crack. It may break it on the way up, but you'd suspect there will be profit takers at that level - at least temporarily. Who knows, though? These freight trains can be tough to stop.

This will either be too good or too bad, not 5 minutes after making the trade my kid comes in and says 'hey dad, put long black train on the youtube, that's a good one'.

oh crap. I hope the wheels don't come off this one.

[alevin]

Good luck you silverados. I bought SLW (typically leveraged to silver) after saw a fair value analysis that said I was getting in at fair price. plus the CEO said he wasn't going to hedge til silver hit 50.

SLW has been in a slump since I bought while SLV continues screaming upward. great, just great. and once silver hits 50, CEO plans to initiate hedge position. hmm. time to do another fair value analysis-I kept the article to remind me how to do that. gotta find it now.

[burrocrat]

Wow, down $0.80 a share in about an hour, these short funds are kind of like speed dating, you find out real quick whether or not you're going to get screwed.

Ouch.

[burrocrat]

Well, if I ever get bored, now I know what to do.

Just buy a leveraged short ETF and watch it go.

I think there is probably a real big chance I am on the wrong side of the ZSL trade, and I typically hate being a don't bettor, but this could break powerfully I think, and if it goes my way it's going to be a good one.

[peterson82]

You're right... you could make out like a bandit. I am holding AGQ until I think it is time to jump ship (ZSL). Silver is a huge unknown right now-could do anything.

Which would mean I am basically gambling... Let's just say I have my chips on Black!

[burrocrat]

You're right... you could make out like a bandit. I am holding AGQ until I think it is time to jump ship (ZSL). Silver is a huge unknown right now-could do anything.

Which would mean I am basically gambling... Let's just say I have my chips on Black!

I guess I got red then. Man, these leveraged funds are like yo-yo's being played with by a crack addict. I didn't understand volatility until just now.

[peterson82]

Not only are you in a leveraged fund, but you are dealing with the hottest commodity in the market right now. Many people will have many different opinions about what will happen to it... I am just betting that the upside will continue until June.

In June I sell (AGQ), and try and time a ZSL buy.

[burrocrat]

I think I get it, silver isn't a commodity play right now, it's a currency thing. Man, I hope this bubble pops.

[alevin]

Yes, its a currency play right now, and I wish I'd bought back at 11 when Showme was talking about it lots. Pullback is likely to be a fakeout tho and start zooming up again.

something worth reading. don't know if things will go this way or not. but somethng to think about. C-fund and I fund implications. not sure about S.

[etftalk]

I'm looking for a pullback to 37-40 - enough of a scare for the big boys to get rid of us little guys. A 400% gain is parabolic and when these finally pull back, they can be scary. Whether it happens now or over the summer, look for a sharp pullback that should be able to be bought once the 50-day EMA is tested.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/slv1.gif

[alevin]

Yes, its a currency play right now, and I wish I'd bought back at 11 when Showme was talking about it lots. Pullback is likely to be a fakeout tho and start zooming up again.

something worth reading. don't know if things will go this way or not. but somethng to think about. C-fund and I fund implications. not sure about S.

Just realized I forgot to link the article I referenced up above-here it is.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jim-willie/currency-dead-end-paradoxes

[etftalk]

Silver's getting hammered in overnight trading.

[XL-entLady]

I sold two of my positions last week for a good profit. I had trailing stops in for my other two positions. I put in cancellations for those stops to occur at the opening bell because I didn't want to sell at a loss. But one of my stops hit before the cancellations went through. Sold at a profit of just a couple of cents. Still holding one position of SLV and will buy CEF at these fire sale prices.

[peterson82]

My plan to keep AGQ through the end of May is still on.

I don't think the fundementals have changed... Until US interest rates begin to rise it is hard to see the dollar moving to a longer-term strengthening trend.

[etftalk]

As I mentioned in my account talk thread (http://www.etftalk.com/forum/showthread.php?p=3692#post3692), I covered my short silver trade (ZSL) and now I am eyeballing a place to buy silver (probably SLV and not AGQ).

I think 37.50 may be a decent place to enter. I would doubt that it would test the 200-day EMA on the first pullback.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/slv2.gif

[etftalk]

Looks like SLV will gap open below 37. I'm taking off my open order to see how it plays out. The dollar is up this morning and silver won't like that. Perhaps waiting for the dollar to have it's bounce first would be wise.

[peterson82]

Anything's wiser than what I think.

EDIT: Fortunately, I didn't have much money in AGQ to begin with!!! And at least TNA might not be negative today.