is it wrong to short early?

[teknobucks]

answer: NO JUST EXPENSIVE AS HELL...lol


appears i sold my SSO and UYM rather untimely friday....FAZ & SRS doing their thing 2 me physiological terror prior to a nice payday....well that's my plan and i'm sticking with it.

think i MAY buy tna (or a similar 3X up) early monday morning in case they manage a rip snorting bmr from this

think gld is over bot st but still holding
really just plain scared to sell it....someday soon it will rip north in a big way and i want on that run

[Bullitt]

No it's not wrong to do anything early Tekno. In fact, you're better early than late. The only thing is, it costs you. I bought TNA at an average cost of 27 a few weeks ago and watched the boys take it down to 22-23 levels. Yeah, if I would have waited I could have gotten a much better price, but I had to sit there and let it be dead money for a while. (Well, it still is dead money for now.)

I don't use stops. I think they are an evil mechanism developed by wall street, but that's just me. The boys know exactly how to blow out the stops just like they have in the past few weeks in both directions.

Psychology is what gets the best of people. How long can one hold onto a some stocks/ETF's if they don't go your way? I know I got smoked like Bill Miller in a few bank stocks in 2008. Eww, I cringe just thinking about it.

[XL-entLady]

I don't use stops. I think they are an evil mechanism developed by wall street, but that's just me. The boys know exactly how to blow out the stops just like they have in the past few weeks in both directions.

The last month or so, I've watched prices turn at exactly the point it would take to blow out most stops. Scary stuff. So if you don't use stops what DO you do for protection? Now keep it clean ... :toung:

Do you only buy stuff that you can hedge in the opposite direction?

TIA,
Lady

[teknobucks]

like counter positions better my self......until something starts a run like SRS di last nov...then a trailing stop works better of course

use mainly SSO and UYM to balance with SRS and FAZ....makes 4 a comfortable groove working these either with a up or down bias

[teknobucks]

yeah TNA...lol


sold some at 23 something last week..."friggen mental stop" tripped in my head...they are the worst u know...lol

[Show-me]

I got some FAZ at 60 and will buy some more in the 30's.

[Bullitt]

I'm thinking with TNA, that if the uptrend from November is breached, I'm out. It's going to take an actual breach, not just one day for me. The way the VIX has been lately, it's no surprise to see wild swings in both directions.

If I would have waited I could have gotten in at a better price but at the time I really felt we were going to head higher and crack the pivot price. For now, 850 is not only a technical level of support, but a psychological level as well.

There's nothing wrong with averaging down. Obviously anyone who's averaged down since Jan 1, 2008 probably would have been better off not doing that (hmmm who did that? :embarrest:), but if you feel right about something and it's in line with the trend, you're going to have to average into your position. Buy an ETF and plan on it going down after you buy it and you'll be alright. Buy it and plan on it going up and the drops will hurt that much more.

That's why the IFT limits have crushed that opportunity in TSP. Averaging in is pretty much shot. Of course, that's why we have this site now, which pertains mainly to our Roth IRA's and operates without restrictions. That horse still continues to be beaten on the other MB and I don't mean to bring it up again, but this site should be better for those of use who are more apt to trade whatever trends we follow.

[XL-entLady]

That's why the IFT limits have crushed that opportunity in TSP. Averaging in is pretty much shot. Of course, that's why we have this site now, which pertains mainly to our Roth IRA's and operates without restrictions. That horse still continues to be beaten on the other MB and I don't mean to bring it up again, but this site should be better for those of use who are more apt to trade whatever trends we follow.
Amen. I'm going to be able to fully fund my and spouse's IRAs this year. I'm hoping this site will guide me while I'm learning what to do after that!

Lady

[XL-entLady]

An article that touches on Bullitt's preference not to use stops. It also mentions that the Baltic Dry is on the upswing. That's an indicator that a few folks I respect (like Coolhand) are watching.

For every article I read saying that we're headed to S&P 400 there is another one that says the bottom has been in for two months. Pick your position anywhere along that continuum and you can find something to support it. :rolleyes:

3X Bear ETF Swings, Tight Trailing Stops And Pastamakers

By Mario Cavolo on February 6, 2009

Melancholy today for getting stopped out of yesterday’s nice swing trade which I had spent hours waiting for; a classic tale of setting your trailing stops % too close before going to bed because I couldn’t stay awake. (I’m in China, it was 4am). Bought 3x financial bear ETF (FAZ (http://www.dailymarkets.com/symbol/FAZ/): 40.94 -9.907 -19.48%) at 48, near the top of the mid-afternoon rally expecting a 6-8 point gain on an S&P reversal at the top of it’s range; set the 5% trailing stop when it moved up to 50 and went to bed confident but got knicked oh so slightly for three minutes while dreaming of millions, stopping me out at 49.40. Heading back up as expected closing at 50.88 leaving me with visuals of homemade pasta coming out of one of those pastamaker machines. The FAZ Financial 3x bear trading range is a wider swing play than the similar BGZ (BGZ (http://www.dailymarkets.com/symbol/BGZ/): 59.41 -5.58 -8.59%) Largecap 3x ETF.

Meanwhile, despite the plethora of doomsday realities lurking, lots of folks seem to be noticing the Baltic Dry Shipping Index recovering substantially off its plummet. paving the way for recovery optimism. With the market six months ahead of the economy, more and more of us are saying this really could be a bottom area around 800 to 850. This week I saw nothing in the action pointing to the plummet that “should” be happening. Like watching the mesmerizing pastamaker churning out spinach fettucini, it’s entertaining every time the market hits its upper or lower trading range, some expert is predicting THIS is the time its going to break out to the upside or downside declaring the new bull market or the final crash to oblivion and themselves the new guru.

Meanwhile, traders just keep playing the swings and Cramer entertains us. Yes, gold gapped up sweetly and spent the day like a tube of silicon filling the gap; could be new support.

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2009/02/05/3x-bear-etf-swings-tight-trailing-stops-and-pastamakers/

Lady

[teknobucks]

had some serious drawdown in SRS in the past twice where i was stuck for a bit
hopefully this will not be the case this time around. ideally in and out of any of these products is much much better than a hold

now this FAZ product is newer 2 me ... seems to have an even more impressive drop rate than the 2x's. can feel the burn on this position

[etftalk]

After some serious drawdowns for those short, we're ready to hear the success stories today. :)

[Gumby]

Thursday, Friday and Monday were tough on me.
I am still holding SDS, SKF, TBT, SRS. I also have some calls on SDS Feb 84 strike. These were up nicely today.
SDS, SKF, and SRS had a banner day. SKF was up over $23 share at one time today when I checked. It still hasn't got back where it was at Thursday. TBT went down a couple of bucks due to interest rates dropping. It should be a good day for the F fund in TSP.
I didn't buy into FAZ this morning and I am regretting that.


Overall, it was a good day to be short in the market.:)

[teknobucks]

holding SRS and FAZ both


bot some uym and sso end of last week.....just in case
this crap http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pts0bNgmEz6BkGZy2kqBkHg&hl=en
bumps it

[teknobucks]

bunch o pork garbage.....not a focused stimuli

[etftalk]

holding SRS and FAZ both

bot some uym and sso end of last week.....just in case
this crap http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pts0bNgmEz6BkGZy2kqBkHg&hl=en
bumps it
Interesting. Why SSO and not just lighten up on FAZ? Just curious.

[teknobucks]

as far as FAZ...
everyone expects stimulus to rise share prices for banks...when in fact every company that has been bailed so far has lost about 80% share price wise



SSO
just a fav long position for any upside
ya know it's no longer the financial juggernaut it once was....went down from almost 25% to less than 10% fins in this correction so far

gl2ya

[teknobucks]

crowd
http://www.incomeyield.com/news.htm

[teknobucks]

crowd
http://www.incomeyield.com/news.htm

need to parse down the SRS....but prolly won't

c this???
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090216/ap_on_re_eu/eu_britain_sub_collision
lotsa weird stuff going on....lol

[etftalk]

crowd
http://www.incomeyield.com/news.htm
What's your thought on this... Too many short increasing the possibility of short covering rally - or the "smart money" is still shorting the REITs? Other?

Thanks