Day to Day Market Talk

[XL-entLady]

How about a thread that is specifically dedicated to updates regarding the current market situation?

Lady

[XL-entLady]

This article has a great chart on the ETF market activity during the past week! :)



ETF Rewind - Week 6 (02/06/09) (http://www.greenfaucet.com/node/5873)
By Jeff Peitsch | February 07, 2009

"Last week saw a powerful "stimulus induced" upswing that actually left the NASDAQ 100 positive on the year (QQQQ +7.9%). This was particularly impressive set against the backdrop of the highest unemployment levels reported since 1974 (US News - Labor Report (http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/careers/2009/02/06/january-unemployment-rate-hits-76-percent-what-you-need-to-know.html)).



http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SY3-kdwrnUI/AAAAAAAABtc/QheS7yiNwkc/s400/Week_6_Table.png
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SY3-kdwrnUI/AAAAAAAABtc/QheS7yiNwkc/s1600-h/Week_6_Table.png)



(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SY3-kdwrnUI/AAAAAAAABtc/QheS7yiNwkc/s1600-h/Week_6_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))
In fact, every single one of the tracked sectors and styles ended higher on the week and near breakout levels. By the same token, as we head into the middle of the month with so many indices now well into overbought territory, much will clearly hinge on the market's reaction to Monday's Treasury Announcements (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEpLfFYvyKPU&refer=home) and Stimulus Plan Vote (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1RKDNnACm2Y&refer=home) (Bloomberg Links). Will February finally provide traders with a breakout of the multi-month range? With the economy still accelerating to the downside, bets will certainly be placed both ways.

Week Seven of 2009 features the following reporting calendars:

Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200907.html)
Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20090209.html)
Enjoy your weekend!"

http://www.greenfaucet.com/earnings/etf-rewind-week-6-02-06-09/47101

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Here's this week's market chart from Market Rewind.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SZc1ns51K_I/AAAAAAAABuk/0LSJOya7IlE/s400/Week_7_Table.png (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SZc1ns51K_I/AAAAAAAABuk/0LSJOya7IlE/s1600-h/Week_7_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))


http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Enjoy! :bigsmile:

Lady

[etftalk]

Re: The above chart: Precious metals +340% risk/reward. I'm not sure what that means exactly, but it looks good. :)

[XL-entLady]

This week's chart from Market Rewind:


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SaDhJB16aTI/AAAAAAAABwE/kVnf47s_m7I/s400/Week_8_Table.png (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SaDhJB16aTI/AAAAAAAABwE/kVnf47s_m7I/s1600-h/Week_8_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))

"Only Precious Metals (DBP) and the Dollar (UUP) managed to post gains of +4.9% and +0.1%, respectively, on a global safety trade. The only other metric showing gains was the VIX (Implied Options Volatility), closing the week back near 50 and stretched +9.2% above its 15-day moving average.
In normal times, this would be a bullish indication, as would the majority of tracked securities showing near- and intermediate-term oversold price index readings (SPY RSI[2] = 1!). However, we are so overstretched to the downside -- this market is clearly broken. Some modicum of positive news flow will be required to turn this train wreck around going into the end of the month. Perhaps clarity on the banking situation will provide that; we'll just have to wait and see."


http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Enjoy!

Lady

[etftalk]

I'm looking for a move above 778 on the S&P before the close, for confirmation of this rebound. It doesn't even have to close above 778. Just get over it intraday.

[etftalk]

Just saw a 779+ print. Cool!

[etftalk]

Yesterday's low was 752.89. Flirting with it today. A break would be bad news.

[Gumby]

Yesterday's low was 752.89. Flirting with it today. A break would be bad news.

755.08 now. It doesn't look good.:unsure:

[JTH]

We must hold these lows, or else I'll be making a quick exit out of SSO :eek:

[etftalk]

The Dow is down 50 and FAZ (3 X financials bear) is down 5% on the day. Financials should drop like a rock tomorrow.

[Show-me]

Looks like the market is not liking the new plans for Citi.

[Show-me]

The Dow is down 50 and FAZ (3 X financials bear) is down 5% on the day. Financials should drop like a rock tomorrow.


Very prophetic of you!

[XL-entLady]

So the S&P closed at 735, an important Fibonacci level. (Next Fib level is 665, by the way.) So I think there are going to be some buyers come Monday morning who will expect a bounce off that 735 Fib level.

Now the reason I care is that I'm in TZA (the small cap levered bear) at the moment. I am expecting the rise in the S&P to pull the small caps market up with it. And it's probably going to hit my TZA stop and knock me out of that ETF just before the bounce ends. :sick:

I'm trying to decide whether to move my stop and hope that Scottrade gets to it before my current stop triggers at market open, or whether to buy some TNA (the small cap levered bull) to hedge my way through the expected bounce.

I know how to pick markets, but entry/exits and stops are keeping my tuition payments to ETF Unniversity humming right along! :toung: Thoughts, anyone??

Lady

[etftalk]

Lowering the stop, or selling at the open, may save you a little commission rather than buying the short ETF.

Based on volume, I do believe that we will see some sort of relief rally Monday or Tuesday, but am not expecting it to last (which could mean the bottom is in :D). If you don't mind a little pain, you might just hang on. This market requires wide stops, assuming you believe in your position.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/022709b.gif

If I were to pick a stop for TZA unfortunately I would have to say 66 or lower, which may be a little too much risk for you, and can easily be hit with a good rally this week.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/022809.gif

[XL-entLady]

Thanks for the quick reply and thoughtful opinion. :)

My current stop is set at about $71 and I'll bet it gets hit Monday morning because it's leveraged 3 to 1 with the small caps. And that's about as much pain as I'm willing to take on this ETF. Maybe I'll think about selling TZA, taking my small profit, and buying back in at the lower level. Because I still think that is a great ETF to be in for the intermediate term.

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Mike Burk's 2/28 email weekend edition concludes with this statement:

"The market is extremely oversold and followed the average seasonal pattern for February during the 1st year of the Presidential cycle very closely. Seasonally, next week has been, on average, strong. A bounce over the next week or so would fit the seasonal pattern and relieve the oversold condition. After that the seasonal pattern and the high level of new lows make new index lows likely. I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday March 6 than they were on Friday February 27."


FWIW,
Lady

[Gumby]

The Dow is down 50 and FAZ (3 X financials bear) is down 5% on the day. Financials should drop like a rock tomorrow.


Like Show-me said, that was a great call!:)
Now tell me what the S&P and FAZ is going to do all week.:nuts:

[etftalk]

I am actually expecting a wild week, with an explosive rally in there somewhere. I'd like to be out of FAZ when it happens but I'm still selling rallies.

I'll probably take profits on at least half, maybe all, of the FAZ position if we gap down Monday.

[Gumby]

I am actually expecting a wild week, with an explosive rally in there somewhere. I'd like to be out of FAZ when it happens but I'm still selling rallies.

I'll probably take profits on at least half, maybe all, of the FAZ position if we gap down Monday.

Sounds like a good plan to me. I am going to pickup some SDS and FAZ if we have a market rally. What would be a good ETF to short the dollar?
I'll be kicking myself if we gap down on Monday.:(

[etftalk]

What would be a good ETF to short the dollar?
UDN - but it's kind of thinly traded, but not terribly so. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=udn. I don't see any ultras.

[XL-entLady]

ETF Rewind - Week 9 (02/27/09) (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/02/etf-rewind-week-8-022009.html)


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SarZ43lKyiI/AAAAAAAABxc/eBiOYDJnQac/s400/Week_9_Table.jpg (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SarZ43lKyiI/AAAAAAAABxc/eBiOYDJnQac/s1600-h/Week_9_Table.jpg)(Click image to enlarge)

http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady

[etftalk]

Looks like a big 'ol gap up this morning, although it is not a gap on the chart. I'll be watching yesterday's S&P high of 711.67 for clues.

I believe we've been down something like 11 of the last 12 days, or something, and there is a gap open at 734.50. Perhaps that is a target?

I actually hope not. I am short BGU (3 X bull) this morning and if we do see a higher high over yesterday, I will start looking for the exit. I am using a "mental stop" just so the MM's don't go hunting.

[JTH]

I can't help to wonder, is there too much news? I know many are talking about and expecting a big wooosh, but if everyone already expects it, will it happen?

So many folks throw up comparisons to previous bear markets but one thing is different. During this bear market, we have an unprecedented level of world-wide news.

I have 2 TV channels dedicated solely to the markets. And if that isn't enough, I can download pod cast and watch them on my phone. Or perhaps I'm too busy to watch anything, so I download some MP3s and listen to those instead.

Don't even get me started on the Internet! We literally have thousands of news sources, forums, bloggers, fundamentalist's, and technicians to choose from.

But yea I'm still waiting for the wooosh :wacko:

[XL-entLady]

Anyone found a good ETF for copper? The only thing I've found is JJC, a sparsely traded ETN. Or is a base metals ETF still our best bet if we want to look at copper?

Lady

[JTH]

Anyone found a good ETF for copper? The only thing I've found is JJC, a sparsely traded ETN. Or is a base metals ETF still our best bet if we want to look at copper?

Lady

I was thinking of the exact same thing this weekend. :rolleyes: I'm watching PCU, and if I go the copper route, I'll choose this one, unless we find something better. :suspicious:

[etftalk]

Anyone found a good ETF for copper? The only thing I've found is JJC, a sparsely traded ETN. Or is a base metals ETF still our best bet if we want to look at copper?
I haven't found one concentrated in copper.

[etftalk]

The gap on the S&P 500 near 734 has been filled (today's high is 734.91). If the market doesn't stall here, a move to 740-745 (741 is resistance) would be about all I would expect.

[JTH]

The gap on the S&P 500 near 734 has been filled (today's high is 734.91). If the market doesn't stall here, a move to 740-745 (741 is resistance) would be about all I would expect.

Apparently you're not taking advice from Larry kudrow and his minions. I couldn't believe my ears wwhen he was saying we are in the beginning of a summer bear rally. :wacko:

I swear that guy's real name is Birch...

[XL-entLady]

Has anyone else noticed that ICE had a P&F triple top breakout yesterday? Any thoughts?

Lady

[etftalk]

I don't usually post these charts in public, but this is from Fred's recent TSP report. The market strength chart has always been so intriguing to me but it is not as easy to use as it might look at times.

The strength chart (blue line) can lead the market (black line) by one to two weeks, but can be a lot less during a volatile market.

Fred showed this current rally on the chart a few weeks ago but asking him about it, he said that since it never made it above -0-, that it is not a measure of coming strength, just weakness subsiding. Well, that turned out to be an understatement and I did not take advantage of the rally.

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/031309a.gif

Now we see that, in the area of weakness (below -0-) the strength line is moving right back down. I would think that would start sometime next week, although the blue line did move higher for two weeks before peaking, and this rally is only one week long.

[XL-entLady]

Saturday, March 14, 2009

ETF Rewind - Week 11 (03/13/09) (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/03/etf-rewind-week-11-031309.html)


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SbvsmJoAGzI/AAAAAAAAB1A/qoL3DbXlrX0/s400/Week_11_Table.png (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SbvsmJoAGzI/AAAAAAAAB1A/qoL3DbXlrX0/s1600-h/Week_11_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))
Last week's bear-market rally leaving the S&P500 (SPY) higher by +10.4% makes the index's four-week loss of -9.0% all the more poignant. Highlighting the rotation into equities was the slight weakness in Bonds and Commodities (TLT -1.5%; DBC -0.4%).



Week Twelve of 2009 features several key Manufacturing, Housing, and Inflation reports, not to mention a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, as follows:

Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200912.html)
Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20090316.html)
As much as we were long overdue this bounce, the ferocity of the minor recovery has nearly every major index, sector and style flashing overbought on the short-term Price Index, as highlighted in both the table above and in the charts below. A small pullback going into expiration (http://www.theocc.com/publications/xcal/xcal.jsp) next week -- finding support well above the prior lows -- before starting a second leg higher would be a healthy and desirable "pause that refreshes."
Hope springs eternal, except perhaps in China where "worry" over our economy has apparently been expressed (AP - Premier Worries (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090313/ap_on_bi_ge/as_china_us_treasuries); Bloomberg - Obama Expresses Confidence (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a85UhPNGBFrg)). Enjoy your weekend!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Sbvss_vqPxI/AAAAAAAAB1I/Ae5R6Wutbis/s400/Week_11_RSI.png (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Sbvss_vqPxI/AAAAAAAAB1I/Ae5R6Wutbis/s1600-h/Week_11_RSI.png)



http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady

[Bullitt]

I can't help to wonder, is there too much news? I know many are talking about and expecting a big wooosh, but if everyone already expects it, will it happen?

I have 2 TV channels dedicated solely to the markets. And if that isn't enough, I can download pod cast and watch them on my phone.

The woosh is going to happen, but for now everyone is fixated on short term trading because it's what worked the past 2 years. Just as soon as the herd piles onto something, it's bound to turn. Case in point, bear ETF's. It's just a matter of time.

I think I was having the same problem as you a while ago, information overload. Just remember 90% of the information you hear is from guys with agendas. In other words, they have a position and are trying to justify their position to you. At the end of the day, they don't have any more of a clue than we do. I've made drastic cutbacks, to include no more CNBC, and feel more in tune than ever. You've just gotta take a look at what you have that's duplicate or useless and cut it out.

[XL-entLady]

...I've made drastic cutbacks, to include no more CNBC, and feel more in tune than ever. ...
I know what you mean about CNBC. I've quit watching it too, because it was starting to feel like "financial Jerry Springer." :rolleyes: :toung:

Lady

[alevin]

Yikes! I've cut down my time reading Bloomberg every am, and am not quite as daily with ticker-forums as I was. Never did watch cnbc, not watching much TV these days, and don't get that channel anyway. Overload. Brainswamp. :wacko:

[JTH]

Thank goodness for DVRs. :)

I can get through 3 CNBC shows and PBS's Night business report in about 2 hours. But mostly I just leave it on while I'm reading various blogs.

I sleep with FOX Bulls & Bears on the TV Timer, and wake up to Blomberg/CNBC.

I seriously think the wife might set up an intervention.

I need to start collecting some quality books...

[etftalk]

I'm guilty. I have cnbc on from the time I get up until Larry Kudlow is over about 11 hours later. I'm not listening to every word. As a matter of fact, I am usually wearing headphones listening to talk radio at the same time, unless I see someone worth listening to (ie Art Cashen) or some breaking news.

I liken it to watching a college baseball game between someone like Northern Iowa and Acron. I could care less who wins, as long as it's baseball, having it on in the background is comforting. :)

[JTH]

Is it just me or is today a weird day for the markets?

Markets down
Bonds up
Metals down
Financials up

It feels strange to me, but my expierence is limited so somebody will have to tell me if it's wierd or not.

[XL-entLady]

Is it just me or is today a weird day for the markets?

Markets down
Bonds up
Metals down
Financials up

It feels strange to me, but my expierence is limited so somebody will have to tell me if it's wierd or not.
Not just strange. Surreal. My TNA that I was worried about is doing fine and my FAZ has triggered a stop that I thought was ridiculously low when I set it. "The markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent." :wacko:

Lady

[Gumby]

Not just strange. Surreal. My TNA that I was worried about is doing fine and my FAZ has triggered a stop that I thought was ridiculously low when I set it. "The markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent." :wacko:

Lady

Markets are crazy....something big is about to happen......just don't know what it is.
I can't believe the FED has something amazing to announce.:confused:

[Ryan]

Is it just me or is today a weird day for the markets?

Markets down
Bonds up
Metals down
Financials up

It feels strange to me, but my expierence is limited so somebody will have to tell me if it's wierd or not.

What is moving these financials? I'm very hesitant getting in. Do we buy this rally or sell it?

[XL-entLady]

Do we buy this rally or sell it?
I think that is a question that can only be answered in hindsight. JMO. I've got a trailing stop on my TNA, but I'm not selling it.

Lady

[JTH]

Here are the levels I'll be watching for confirmation of a pause, pullback, or reversal. Although I'm still deeply indebted to FAZ, even if I did have cash, I doubt I'd be ready to short with SDS just yet. But that's just me, so take the chart for what it's worth...

779 Support within the ascending channel, at the 20 SMA, and support from the previous February 26 swing high (pink line) preceding the cliff dive.

757-763 Possible support (purple circle) with the 50 & 200 SMA crossover.

751 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and February 26th daily high

Any further then that and the doom & gloom will take care of itself...

49

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p93145187539&a=163530215

[XL-entLady]

Today's blog entry from John Lee (written last night)

"We are flagging and, at this stage, it is a bull flag indicating additional upside sometime soon (I did not say tomorrow, I said soon, for those who are illiterate). I remain in all cash until we gap up/burst out to the upside or break the flag and sell-off. The market had a terrific run and it needs some time to properly consolidate those gains. As the consolidation develops, it will show appropriate entry signals.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_NOVV_qpBVl4/ScNMaXl9TAI/AAAAAAAADys/wMX0jtbXy8s/s400/spx40d.png (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_NOVV_qpBVl4/ScNMaXl9TAI/AAAAAAAADys/wMX0jtbXy8s/s1600-h/spx40d.png)
Tomorrow, we will likely continue the flagging action. The SPX finds immediate support at 780 and 775 and very strong immediate resistance at 800. If you are going to day trade, just remember that consolidation days get choppy. Also, do not forget about quadruple witching. You might as well go take the day off and ride some horses like I did last Friday.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_NOVV_qpBVl4/ScNNbHZ-CQI/AAAAAAAADy0/0KOwEzIYVjI/s400/spx5m.png (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_NOVV_qpBVl4/ScNNbHZ-CQI/AAAAAAAADy0/0KOwEzIYVjI/s1600-h/spx5m.png)
I suggest keeping an open mind if you are thinking in the intermediate-term. We could be forming the bullish broadening wedge pattern. This downward coil will produce a ForceTM spike if/when it breaks out above the 50-day MA. If that occurs, it will furious and immediate. Likewise, if we breakdown completely, the bottom of the wedge would be at around 600. Just FYI.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_NOVV_qpBVl4/ScNMaBU5-pI/AAAAAAAADyc/AMnBwXanslM/s400/10d.png (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_NOVV_qpBVl4/ScNMaBU5-pI/AAAAAAAADyc/AMnBwXanslM/s1600-h/10d.png)
You can see a various time corrections, an ascending triangle, and presently, another time correction. After a series of time corrections, you usually encounter a more deeper price correction, not to be confused with a sell-off. A possiblity is that one may occur between the 50- and 30-day MA's on the SPX. If we form a doji, it'll likely be a large time corrective flag. "

http://www.greenfaucet.com/blogs/the-exception

Lady

[JTH]

No matter what the markets do, they can't change the fact that it's Friday!!! :)

Woo wooo :toung:

52

[XL-entLady]

No matter what the markets do, they can't change the fact that it's Friday!!! :)

Woo wooo :toung:


LOL! When you're retired, every day is Saturday. :bigsmile:

It will be interesting to see if your support line holds. That could give a hint of what next week will bring.

Have a great weekend!
Lady

[XL-entLady]

ETF Rewind - Week 12 (03/20/09) (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/03/etf-rewind-week-12-032009.html)


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/ScVJSrmbgbI/AAAAAAAAB3A/W2kdS0SnXXU/s400/Week_12_Table.png (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/ScVJSrmbgbI/AAAAAAAAB3A/W2kdS0SnXXU/s1600-h/Week_12_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))
"Last week's Relative Strength Index (RSI) charts (below) show the extremes the markets moved to on the Federal Reserve's surprise 'reflation' announcement before pulling back on Expiration Friday (Bloomberg - Fed Aims to Ease (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aAWzQMDmmdhk&refer=home); Wachovia - Implications for $1.25T Purchase (http://www.actionforex.com/fundamental-analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/implications-of-the-fomc)).

Nevertheless, the S&P500 (SPY) finished higher by +1.5%, although the real stealth winner over the last four weeks has been Emerging Markets (EEM +11.1%), receiving an added boost from the US Dollar pullback (UUP -3.3%). Commodities have also seen a strong move higher during the last month (DBC +12.8%).

Week Thirteen of 2009 features Durable Goods, Housing, Gross Domestic Product and Personal Spending reports, among others, as follows:

Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200913.html)
Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20090323.html)
Traders will also be reading Monday's finalized Treasury Plan with a keen eye (Bloomberg - Geithner Finishing Touches (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5z1.VcMZHBM&refer=home)). Will the Treasury finally come through for the markets?"

http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady

[etftalk]

A rally back up to the resistance (~800). This is either a great selling opportunity or the bulls are about to change everything.

I feel like I am always wrong at these market junctures so I don't trust my call. Everything I view suggests that the market should head down from this level, but is this new $1 trillion infusion enough to break the charts?

[JTH]

I feel like I am always wrong at these market junctures so I don't trust my call. Everything I view suggests that the market should head down from this level, but is this new $1 trillion infusion enough to break the charts?

You are not wrong Tom, I'd pit you against theose over-hyped CNBC guys anytime. I still can't believe Guy was calling SPX 900 last week. If I've learned anything here, it's that how I react to the market is more important than what the market does.

As for the "yet again" Fed-induced rally, the real market will eventually correct itself. Sorry for all the chart post whoring...

68

[JTH]

SPX & SLV have surpassed it's previous weeks highs.

FAS, ERX, have not and their volume is declining.

FAZ has not tested it's lows and volume is declining.

GLD is acting like it never got out of bed this morning. :(

[XL-entLady]

SPX & SLV have surpassed it's previous weeks highs.

FAS, ERX, have not and their volume is declining.

FAZ has not tested it's lows and volume is declining.

GLD is acting like it never got out of bed this morning. :(
SPX and SLV are doing well because people think the stimulus is going to kick industrial metals into high gear.

FAS may have already run its course from the 'Geithner Goose.' FAZ will come back when people decide that today wasn't a magic fix. And they'll bring out the wooden stake and garlic necklace.

GLD won't have a good day when there is bull market euphoria. But when people start grasping the magnitude of the inflation around the corner you better be on that train or you'll be under it.

Just my two cents, :nuts:

Lady

[etftalk]

If the S&P closes in negative territory today, it will look a lot like an outside reversal day.

[JTH]

If the S&P closes in negative territory today, it will look a lot like an outside reversal day.

Does the daily candlestick look like an inverted hammer to you?

[etftalk]

I'm not very fluent in candlesticks, but it kinda looks like a spinning top to me.

[XL-entLady]

Read this for good analysis of today's moves!

http://www.greenfaucet.com/blogs/the-exception

No time to say more right now, sorry.

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Saturday, March 28, 2009

ETF Rewind - Week 13 (03/27/09) (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/03/etf-rewind-week-13-032709.html)


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Sc5t5iU7FzI/AAAAAAAAB4o/LVtG0oAKcqg/s400/Week_13_Table.png (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Sc5t5iU7FzI/AAAAAAAAB4o/LVtG0oAKcqg/s1600-h/Week_13_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))Several economic data points suggesting a slowing in the pace of our nation's economic decline, together with more details on the TALF Program (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/talf.htm), provided the fuel for another broad-based advance that left the markets up for the third week in a row and uniformly positive on the month (NASDAQ - Treasury Unveils Program (http://www.nasdaq.com/newscontent/20090323/Treasury-unveils-troubled-assets-program.aspx?storyid=19087046)).
The S&P 500 (SPY) finished the week higher by +6.4%, now up +11.2% over the last four weeks. In fact, the technology laden NASDAQ 100 closed higher on the year -- not a small feat given where the markets were at only a short while ago. Said data points (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200913.html) included Existing and New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and Gross Domestic Product.
While encouraging in many respects, not all the data points were rosy, including a worse than expected decline in Personal Income (even as Spending rose -- hmm...). With first quarter earnings nearly on deck, analysts will no doubt be pondering how these early indicators may translate to a trough earnings scenario, as well as to the prospective pace of growth ahead. I expect there will be heavy brooding over this point in the coming weeks by a market that has so quickly rebounded from its recent lows.

Week Fourteen of 2009 features another busy week of key economic reports, culminating in the closely watched Jobs Report, as follows:

Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200914.html)
Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20090330.html)

Changing topics, much has been written about the value of tracking price versus longer-term moving averages. Research has shown that semi-active portfolio management using more difficult to "game" secular trends -- is helpful in reducing draw-downs and volatility, while also enhancing returns and assisting in identifying the strongest performing indices for rotational purposes.
Mebane Faber, a fellow asset manager, author of World Beta (http://www.mebanefaber.com/), and proponent of long-term rotational timing methods, reports that his readers have very few resources to easily track this key statistic. (He has written an excellent introductory white-paper on the topic, which may be found here (http://www.mebanefaber.com/timing-model/). I will post additional research links next week.)
I am therefore pleased to announce the addition of this metric to the Weekly ETF Rewind (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/search/label/Weekly%20ETF%20Rewind). Note under the "Price Change" header the new "10-Month" column. This provides the percentage difference between the last closing price and the trailing simple moving average of the prior ten 20-day end periods (not the 200-day moving average, although both may be effective). The next column shows the "Rank" order of these results across all thirty or so tracking indices. Positive differences are indicated as green, while negative differences are shown as red. Are you surprised by the top ranked security (DBP +6.0%)? How about the fifth (QQQQ -11.3%)?
I hope that longer-term investors find this to be a helpful addition. Enjoy your weekend!

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Sc5uB5RS6mI/AAAAAAAAB4w/tW73y-lysEo/s400/Week_13_RSI.png (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Sc5uB5RS6mI/AAAAAAAAB4w/tW73y-lysEo/s1600-h/Week_13_RSI.png)

Never Investment Advice






http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Today's "Market Rewind" post contains some real nuggets. If you have the time, please dissect the post immediately below this one carefully. Especially note the addition of two columns to the chart, the 10 month column and the ranking column. And take time to follow the Faber link and read his white paper on SMA timing. Interesting stuff! :)

Enjoy your Sunday!

Lady

[alevin]

Thanks Lady, I just started looking at the Omega column today too, and researching what that's all about. makes me go Hmm, glad I don't have to do all the math on that one. Looking at that and the rankings. Makes me glad I went IBB and GLD. GLD stayed above the 50 week MA last week, along with right on the 50d MA. Is that a bull flag forming on the weekly chart? I'm not very good at those yet. I'm still a little over 1/3 cash at this point, waiting for clearer signals before I sell anything or buy anything else. Trading costs, need to recoup them, not add to deficit.

[Uptrend]

Hi All.l Trying a tightrope image. Feel that way sometimes. By the way I am holding all cash: TSP G and and my long market positions are closed out. Had a great March and looking for more. I think caution is advised this week. I will not trade until I see confirmation of the market direction, other than possibly a day trade.

[etftalk]

Glad to see you here Uptrend!

[JTH]

Anyone remember the last big gap down follwed by a big red candlestick?

What do you think?

82

[etftalk]

Looks familiar. The market doesn't usually rebound sharply from drops like this. It's the dead cat theory. If the cat drops from the 30th floor, it isn't going to giddy-up any time soon. It will be a good test for the folks who think this is a new bull market.

[JTH]

I never seriously pretend to know what the charts will do next. Having said that, i will be a doom and gloomer until I squeeze that last lemon drop out of FAZ...

90

[JTH]

20 & 50 SMA crossed under 200 SMA on the 15min chart.

91Worth mentioning?

[etftalk]

This dead cat had some legs I guess. It's an inside day so far, but the buying seems relentless.

[etftalk]

As soon as I wrote that above, the market started to lose steam. :rolleyes:

Up 100 now with 14 minutes to go. Place your bets!

[JTH]

As soon as I wrote that above, the market started to lose steam. :rolleyes:

Up 100 now with 14 minutes to go. Place your bets!

I was just about to say "wow did we hit the gap and drop like a rock?"

Edit to add "I was almost smart enough to take advantage of that"

[alevin]

Don't know when I started reading DecisionPoint regularly but sometime in the past year someone pointed me to it. Their latest market analysis of ETF performance was updated today. Very very very few buy signals short AND longer term both. Looks like I'm going to put some cash into gold miners along about now. Notice the SELL/SELL signals on silver? Signals based on Price Momentum indicators. If get a Buy/Sell pair on the same ETF, it means maybe a whipsaw or trend change. Full range of ETF flavors analyzed on the website. I just picked a meaningful few here for me. More where they came from. :)

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/Spider.html


___________short/long (trend signals)
Gold Warn! SELL/BUY
Gold Miners BUY/ BUY
Silver ETF SELL/SELL

[XL-entLady]

"...So -from a historical and statistical perspective- probabilities and odds regarding those setups listed at top of my post are indicating a probable short-term pullback early next week, but we may see another (or a continuation of the) run-up in the markets after the short-term pullback has run it’s course, especially with respect to the strong breadth we’ve experienced during the last couple of sessions (and which might not disappear without showing it’s strong hand again any time soon)."

http://tradingtheodds.wordpress.com/

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Capture the Residential Real Estate Market With New ETFs

April 29, 2009 at 2:00 pm by Tom Lydon

"The initial public offerings (IPOs) for the new MacroShares real estate exchange traded funds (ETFs) are finally taking place.

The highly anticipated auction of MacroShares Major Metro Housing Up (UMM (http://www.etftrends.com/etf/umm/)) and MacroShares Major Metro Housing Down (DMM (http://www.etftrends.com/etf/dmm/)) began on April 28 and will run through May 5 at 1 p.m. ET, according to Globe NewsWire (http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=163366). The initial offerings of both UMM and DMM will occur simultaneously.

Liam Denning for The Wall Street Journal reports that (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123897667301591301.html) U.S. residential real estate was still valued at $18.3 trillion at the end of 2008, according to the Federal Reserve. The brainchild of economist (http://www.etftrends.com/2009/04/macroshares-shifts-gears-with-real-estate-etfs.htm) Robert Shiller, they will offer investors a way of betting on rising house prices by buying “Up” shares, or expressing pessimism via “Down” shares, with no actual physical housing to back them.

The ETFs will be tied to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Home Price index. When the Up and Down shares float, proceeds will be invested in U.S. government bills to ensure liquidity. If the index moves up, the trust behind the Down shares will shift a corresponding portion of its assets to the Up shares trust, raising the net asset value underlying the Up shares. The prices should follow.

There are few alternatives for investors who want exposure to the residential housing market – real estate investment trusts (REITs) focus on commercial property, and homebuilders don’t give perfect exposure. Investors who want more direct access to housing prices could find these funds attractive."

http://www.etftrends.com/2009/04/capture-the-residential-real-estate-market-with-new-etfs.html

We've been able to invest in commercial real estate with REITs for quite some time. It's about time someone did residential stuff too. :)


Lady

[XL-entLady]

Decisionpoint is always a "go to" site for me. Their EFT Digest has no eye candy, but if you spend the time to dissect the numbers there is a huge amount of information there. I can't post an example because it is all in tables, and the formatting won't copy, so the tables are screwed up.

If you have some time this weekend, you might want to click on this and study it a bit.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/Spider.html

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Stock Returns by Sector and Market Cap

by: Alan Brochstein May 01, 2009

The table below (click to enlarge) breaks down the 3 S&P broad indices by their 10 economic sectors:
http://ab.typepad.com/.a/6a00e552375490883301157062c580970b-800wi (http://ab.typepad.com/.a/6a00e552375490883301157062c580970b-pi)
Despite the much higher returns among small stocks, the YTD differential is still negative.


Energy has been very strong over the past month with the exception of large-caps.
Materials have been strong across the board.
Industrials had a strong month, but they still lag on the year.
Consumer Discretionary has rebounded across all market caps, but it is actually the very strongest sector of all for the S&P 600.
Consumer Staples remain under pressure
Healthcare remains extremely disappointing (see my in-depth explanation (http://seekingalpha.com/article/133176-healthcare-stocks-have-a-serious-drug-problem))
Financials saw very different behavior across market caps, with the big boys rocking and the smaller ones getting slammed. This is opposite what was happening from last summer through March.
Tech was moderately better than the market as a whole last month and remains one of the healthiest sectors.
Telecom Services is performing poorly.
Utilities are most likely reflecting the rise in rates and the exodus of "safe-haven" money.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/134538-stock-returns-by-sector-and-market-cap

The chart in that article contains some interesting information. Have a good weekend, everyone! :)


Lady

[alevin]

This is great, Lady, I've been trying to work a sector rotation strategy, difficult w/limited funds, if ya make a mistake, it really limits ability to shift gears in the right direction. I've been watching materials and industrials, got my eye on a couple particular small-midcap stocks, but was unsure whether the sector strengths were really there or not, made me hesitate to throw cap(ital) into the ring. Now that I'll have some new investable funds next week (from partial sale of ATN), I can move forward on a couple other possibles. AND I think I'll sell the rest of my GLD and move that cash into something with better short-term prospects too, even if I do take a hit on the sale.

[XL-entLady]

I read a book regarding a kind of sector rotation strategy during my recent medical trip. It was called "The Ivy Portfolio" and I really enjoyed it. I keep thinking I need to write a book report on it for the MB but I haven't gotten around to it yet.

Maybe this weekend....

Lady

[XL-entLady]

ETF Rewind - Week 18 (05/01/09) (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/05/etf-rewind-week-18-050109.html)

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Sf3FWq811jI/AAAAAAAACDo/ynu3xlgrlKo/s400/Week_18_Table.png (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Sf3FWq811jI/AAAAAAAACDo/ynu3xlgrlKo/s1600-h/Week_18_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))

After battling Swine (H1N1) Flu pandemic fears out of the gate, all of the broad indices nevertheless finished the week higher, with the S&P500 (SPY) up +1.4%. As highlighted previously, a number of the more beta-oriented equity indices ultimately finished bullishly above their long-term moving averages, including the NASDAQ100 (QQQQ), Emerging Markets (EEM), Consumer Discretionaries (XLY), and Technology (XLK). All that said, interesting how Utilities led the week (XLU +4.6%)! Among the tracked equity indices, only Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (IYR) fell back ahead of the formal "stress-test" results scheduled for next week Thursday.

Week Nineteen of 2009 features the following earnings and economic calendar, including a Friday jobs report:


Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200919.html)
Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20090504.html)



http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady