Thinking of an intermiate-term position

[etftalk]

When I trade futures, it is usually for only a day or two at a time, however, I am considering taking a longer-term position in some of the commodities that seem to be improving.

You can make some big money on a couple of futures contracts if you catch a longer-term trend. I know someone who made a couple million catching a few commodities on the way down during the 2008 commodity "crash".

My concern is the dollar. If it is going to remain strong, this play may not be as effective. Gold seems to be rising despite the strength in the dollar. Can the other commodities do the same, or will the dollar need to stop moving higher before things like wheat, soybeans, cocoa, etc., even oil, make a bull move?

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Fetal.

[JEL_Futures]

When I trade futures, it is usually for only a day or two at a time, however, I am considering taking a longer-term position in some of the commodities that seem to be improving.

You can make some big money on a couple of futures contracts if you catch a longer-term trend. I know someone who made a couple million catching a few commodities on the way down during the 2008 commodity "crash".

My concern is the dollar. If it is going to remain strong, this play may not be as effective. Gold seems to be rising despite the strength in the dollar. Can the other commodities do the same, or will the dollar need to stop moving higher before things like wheat, soybeans, cocoa, etc., even oil, make a bull move?


Although I believe the dollar is still a key outside market for commodities like crude and gold, I think it's effect is diminishing off of the grains.

Especially after last Tuesday's USDA report that sent them south, especially corn whose market was locked out due to a 30 point drop, I think the price of grains will begin to strongly reflect their supply and demand fundamentals.

Previously, it seemed that traders completely abandoned these supply and demand fundamentals and focused on the key outside markets for grains: stock indexes, crude oil, and the dollar index.

[emanagedfutures]

Although I believe the dollar is still a key outside market for commodities like crude and gold, I think it's effect is diminishing off of the grains.

Especially after last Tuesday's USDA report that sent them south, especially corn whose market was locked out due to a 30 point drop, I think the price of grains will begin to strongly reflect their supply and demand fundamentals.

Previously, it seemed that traders completely abandoned these supply and demand fundamentals and focused on the key outside markets for grains: stock indexes, crude oil, and the dollar index.

Our CTA is really interested in corn as well. I think whatever you read in the USDA is worth looking into for sure.