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etftalk
02-25-2009, 03:27 AM
Good luck alevin!

XL-entLady
02-25-2009, 12:32 PM
I probably should have moved my comment in the "Shorting for Dummies" thread over to your new home. And brought a plate of cookies! :toung:

Welcome to the neighborhood!

Lady

alevin
02-27-2009, 03:09 PM
Well, combining yesterday and Wednesday, bought and sold 3 ETFs paper trading, managed to lose 8% of my cash, but also managed NOT to lose 18% of my cash which would have happened in I'd stayed in SCO yesterday after buying on Wed. Wed. SCO dropped 8% after I bought, but I believe in cutting losses quickly, so once I realized the USO:SCO hedging wasn't working, (USO up, SCO way down), I put in an order yesterday before the market opened, to sell SCO at market. Still took 45 minutes after the open to get the order filled. If I hadn't gotten out right then, I'd have lost another 10% on the trade yesterday on top of the 8% I'd already lost. I'll post real numbers this evening when life slows down a little. I tried to post trade numbers last night but got timed out and kicked out before posting, didn't have mental energy and patience to log back on and try again.

alevin
02-28-2009, 06:34 AM
It's a good thing I did screen prints of my paper trades the last couple days so I could study them offline. Logged in tonight and discovered the paper trades were wiped clean, all 6 of them that I did Wed and yesterday. Good to know, eh?

so ok, here's what I did on Wed.

FAS-sold short at market-good til close (that would mean the broker was able to borrow the shares from somewhere for me to sell, right?). Price $5.53. the bid-asks promptly dropped down into 5.14-5.15 range.

FAS-decided to snag a small profit (practice, remember?)-put in a "buy to close" order good til close, at market. Covered at $5.01. Gain= $22.00 and change-enough to cover commission for 1 leg and tax on the gain. Hah!

USO-bought limit order-$24.40. got scared. Sold same day, within the hour.
USO sold $25.51. Gain=enough to cover these trades plus second leg of the FAS trade.

SCO-bought Wednesday am (good til close)-looked like it was going up, bought at $49.25.
SCO-tanked that day-EOD 8%. Sold Thurs at market open-market order, good til close. can't find record of sale price but Whew! Only lost 9% of total cash on that one, SCO tanked another 10% EOD after I sold at open.

XL-entLady
02-28-2009, 01:55 PM
Hi Allie, thanks for posting your moves in such detail! As we're all learning together it helps me to understand the trades. :)

I need to do that too. I incurred an 8% tuition payment to ETF University that I should share with others so that nobody else does what I did. :nuts: I'll try to put the details together and share it over at my house.

Thanks again!

Lady

alevin
02-28-2009, 03:23 PM
I probably should have moved my comment in the "Shorting for Dummies" thread over to your new home. And brought a plate of cookies! :toung:

Welcome to the neighborhood!

Lady

I'm sorry so frazzled lately I haven't even said thanks for the visit yet. As you can see, I'm still unpacking, boxes everywhere, no pictures on the walls, but making progress. The cookies were a great pickmeupper when I took a break. Thanks! There's a few left to share if anyone else comes by, but they're going fast. :bigsmile:

alevin
03-06-2009, 03:43 AM
Well, OK. today was the day I jumped in and got wet-finally. I was hoping GLD would drop more before I bought my first position, but in the first hour it looked as tho I shouldn't wait any longer, so I went and bought at market.

bought GLD @ $91.17.

I still have 2/3 powder dry. Emotions took over this morning when I read KD Market-Ticker :eek:, so was not as calm and judicious as I normally try to be. I suspect I'll be hanging onto this position for awhile, but I have a trailing stop on it, so we'll see.

Filling out my spreadsheet tonight for seed I want to buy for first serious garden (read KD today-you'll want a garden too). Will send order in the morning. The tree service guy is coming in the am also-hope that when he gets done, there'll be a lot more sunlight in the backyard for garden space. I need it-too much shade in all the wrong places.

Stopped by local glass shop after work tonight to ask about junk windows and doors in their salvage yard-I was inquiring due to thinking about trying my hand at cold frame gardening-first time ever. They said I could have all the salvage windows and doors I want-for FREE! That definitely makes the cold frame idea more incentivized. I was anticipating paying a minor fee for what I might want. Recycling at its best, I love it! :bigsmile:

etftalk
03-06-2009, 03:51 AM
Congrats on the 1st trade and good luck alevin!

XL-entLady
03-06-2009, 11:30 AM
Well, OK. today was the day I jumped in and got wet...bought GLD @ $91.17.

....Filling out my spreadsheet tonight for seed I want to buy for first serious garden (read KD today-you'll want a garden too). Will send order in the morning. ....junk windows and doors in their salvage yard-I was inquiring due to thinking about trying my hand at cold frame gardening-first time ever. ...Recycling at its best, I love it! :bigsmile:

GDX and GTU were my very first purchases. I think you and I are both going to be happy with our picks! :) And congratulations on the garden! We had a small one last year, but we're pulling up half the sod in our back yard for a big garden this year and I think it's a good idea. Love your recycling into a cold frame garden idea! Let us know how it works out, okay? :bigsmile:

Lady

alevin
03-07-2009, 01:44 AM
Thanks Lady, I'm happy with my pick so far, I think. Not stopped out yet. Am a bit confused tho about my trading program process. With the market buy order I set a trailing stop up of .5 pts (program wouldn't let me set trailing stop down).

The spread when I sent in the buy order was between 0 and 90.67 (ask and bid). It created the order after it filled it. How does that work? the record says the order was created at 11.59:15am, but the order was filled slightly earlier at 11.58:47. Do you get that? How do you create an order after its already filled?

My other puzzlement was that the screen said the trailing stop was up by .5 pts from 90.67 (which appeared to be market value when I sent in the order), and it filled the order at exactly .5 pts higher than 90.67 . It's like it moved the stop up before I bought and I bought at the new stop! And the record doesn't show an untriggered trailing stop still active at this point so I really think am not sure I still have a trailing stop on the darn thing. Does any of what I said make sense to you? to anybody?

JTH
03-09-2009, 03:39 AM
Hi Alevin

Somehow you slipped under my radar. WELCOME to the Board :)

alevin
03-09-2009, 05:07 AM
JTH-thanks! :) Gotta make up some lost ground somehow for the crashing and burning in the antique mutual fund Roth and regular IRAs I'm still stuck in and the miniscule growth in the TSP. I've written them off long ago. Retirement is still a number of years away yet tho, so this is my risk proportion of the stash right now, small, very small, but more fun, if I don't gamble it away in trade fees.

Never bought a single stock or ETF til now. I like learning index market behavior-TA and fundamentals and starting to feel somewhat competant there, but brain starting to hit saturation point for new stuff after the past 2 years concentrated crash course fiscal edification.

Many things still mysterious re single stock/ETF trading-see most recent post before this one. :confused:

JTH
03-09-2009, 03:27 PM
I like learning index market behavior-TA and fundamentals

I'm not a big fundlementals guy, but when I do look at them, I like AOL's format and the amount of information they provide. It's my one-stop-fundlementals-shop :)

http://finance.aol.com/quotes/advanced-micro-devices-inc/amd/nys

alevin
03-13-2009, 04:12 PM
Hi all, thought I'd check in. Still figuring out my OptX account mechanics. My virtual trade setup says at trade permission level 0, I can short stocks. I tried to do that with AXO couple days ago in real account, it wouldn't let me. So last night I requested upgrade in real account to trade level 1-which definitely should let me short stocks, but they haven't upgraded me yet. I'm still at level 0-which corresponds to strictly cash account-I think. that's what I wanted initially and still, but I should be able to sell short, according to virtual trade account, so I'll be making phone calls next week to get this sorted out. I have enough in the real account to go on margin if I so choose, I'm just not ready to go out on that limb yet.

I'm also finalizing setting up Roth account, sending in paperwork today. Should be ready by next week. Once I get all these "minor" details figured out and resolved, I may become a little more active here. Still holding the GLD I bought recently. Prices back up to close where I bought in.

Oh yeah, when I make my phone call next week, I'm going to ask why the trailing stop setup only allowed me to set stop above the existing price, which pushed me into buying higher than the bid/ask was that morning (which I only figured out had happened after the fact). Lots still to get straight.

My virtual account, when I set it to trade level 0 still allows me to short, and also grants me margin-so inconsistent permissions relative to trade level 0 in real account, doesn't let me practice with conditions similar to what I have in real account-which is also aggravating-maybe they don't realize their system doesn't match between virtual and real accounts at that trade level. Will see. Next week. Later all, good trading!

alevin
03-17-2009, 06:01 AM
Bawk bawk bawk bawk bawk! :nuts: that's my chicken imitation for those wondering. I just don't have the nerve to go after 3x'ers. Too much adrenaline rush, you FAS/FAZers should go read the FAS Addict stream of conciousness thread over on ticker-forum-it's a genuine in-the-moment classic true tale of 1 day's worth of gambling addiction. Well worth the read for you 3xers. I felt the addiction process jetting through his body even as I read it.

So for me, the sedate? DDG (that's 1x short oil and gas). bought limit order today at 74.00. Stop set at 71.5. May move it up in the morning. I hear there are bots that roam at night hunting stops so they know where to drive the price to the next day. will see what happens. I just didn't want to get caught too short by not having any stop at all while I'm at work and can't do anything. Peace of mind sort of thing, ya know?

My other "sedate" buy this morning was IBB, limit ordered at 64.5. It went down pretty big today tho-was "supposed" to go up :rolleyes:-I bought about halfway through the current spread. Maybe I'll set a stop in the am, depending on the early action.

So far, between my 3 adventurous buys, I'm only down about 1% (not counting commissions) as of today. Huh! Guess I don't call that awful, don't call it good tho either.

alevin
03-18-2009, 03:37 PM
Well shucks. I guess I learn better by making real mistakes instead of virtual mistakes. I decided to bail DDG this morning after doing extensive analysis on other long/short oil related ETFs, decided USO is moving better than just about anything else at this point in contango cycle, which I'm still studying and starting to grasp, all too slowly, unfortunately.

Anyway, bought DDG @74 couple days ago, sold with stop order today @ 73.72 after watching streaming quotes this morning. Seemed like that was the best I'd be able to do today or week. Order filled quickly. I checked back a few minutes later and streaming quotes bid AND ask were both 74.4+!!! OK, don't have to hit me in the head twice. :(

Next time I do a stop-limit order or a stop with limit (may have to get help from OptX staff with that one, since the software doesn't give me sufficient direction how to do 1 vs.the other, looks like the same buttons get pushed, same price boxes used, not sure how to tell program to do 1 vs. the other.

Note to self: don't rely on sell-confirm signal on oil index or any other buy or sell (confirmed index signal) at Amer. Bulls alone, need to do charting due diligence with long and short ETFs both before jumping next time.:embarrest:

alevin
03-19-2009, 12:20 AM
Wheeooo! Sure glad I didn't dump my GLD this morning when I dumped the DDG. I'd have been one sorry puppy tonight if I had. Fed/Treasury shenanigans may turn our world upside down in short order unintentionally, but upside down just the same and not a good scenario if it comes. My IBB shows a very firm doji/spinning top at the moment, will have to watch AH action and early am to make up my mind what to do about that. I'm considering my trading costs to be tuition fees at the moment. I hadn't planned on doing this much trading this soon, given the size of the pot I have to work with at present.

alevin
03-22-2009, 04:04 AM
Lady found this wonderful site the other day, I've been taking full advantage. http://etfscreen.com

Based on what I'm seeing here, and also what I'm seeing in USO and USL and UGA charts and my shared belief with others here about general commodity direction going forward, I do believe I'll be putting $ into USO, DBC and/or DBE in the coming week and keeping there awhile.

http://etfscreen.com/graphcache/sl_6_i_GLD+GDX+DBS+DBA+DBC+RYE+USL+DBE+GSG+USO+UNG +GAZ.png


Here's a cool correlation chart for these funds, from the same ETF site.
DBA (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=DBA)DBC (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=DBC)DBE (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=DBE)DBS (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=DBS)GDX (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=GDX)GLD (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=GLD)GSG (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=GSG)UNG (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=UNG)USL (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=USL)USO (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=USO)DBA (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=DBA)1.00 DBC (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=DBC)0.801.00 DBE (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=DBE)0.650.911.00 DBS (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=DBS)0.500.480.371.00 GDX (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=GDX)0.430.520.410.711.00 GLD (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=GLD)0.240.320.220.730.761.00 GSG (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=GSG)0.690.910.920.390.480.231.00 UNG (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=UNG)0.360.420.460.170.23-0.000.471.00 USL (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=USL)0.500.740.760.340.370.170.740.3 51.00 USO (http://etfscreen.com/etfchart.php?s=USO)0.590.870.920.340.430.220.930.3 80.751.00These 126 day (6 month) correlations can be considered short term, focusing on recent price movements.
Correlations are only calculated for actively traded funds. As of: 2009-03-20.

alevin
03-24-2009, 04:59 AM
Well, my IBB went up nicely today, almost back to even in my account, including trade costs. I don't like where the economy is gonna go, but hey trade the tape you're given, right? so I'm going long into DBC in the morning, put my limit order in tonight, below where the price range was today, ready for a pullback. If it doesn't come cuz I set the limit tooooo low, well, I'm still learning.

Tried to put a limit order in on DBE as well, but for some reason OptX thinks that's so special I need a PIN (in addition to my normal login password-what? I don't have a "PIN" in addition to my password-yet. don't even know what this is all about, the site says contact a rep, so maybe I'll do that in the am.

don't know why 1 ETF would require a PIN to place a buy order, another one doesn't, both are long commodity ETFs, guess I'll find out what the story is, but not tonight so I'm irked. I didn't want to have to muck around in the morning. high intensity work obligations are currently fully occupying my attention in the ams at the moment. easier to focus on this stuff in evening right now. oh well, least I got the DBC order in and the IBB went up today.

alevin
04-14-2009, 05:43 PM
Bought IBB a few weeks ago at 64.5, sold today at 65.89. It was a gain, but not enough to cover the commissions so I'm down a little. thought about selling a piece of GLD today, decided against. Still got a good chunk of cash on the sidelines, even w/o the sale proceeds, so I'm prepared for tankage.

Learned something else about account management this am, wasn't able to do what I thought I'd be able to do...which was link my taxable to my Roth so I could transfer funds into my Roth a little more quickly, like we do with TSP between funds. Doesn't work that way, unfortunately. what the brokerage means by linkage isn't what I wanted it to mean. Bummer. They only mean that I can manage within each account from the other account, but I can't move funds back and forth between accounts. Rats! That means my 08 Roth account will be funded far less than I'd intended (I'd intended to move funds into Roth account from taxable account, which got started first), so I'll just have to save up harder to fully fund the 2009 Roth during the coming year.

I'm looking at turning off the TV and contributing those funds, since I rarely watch TV these days anyway. I'm also serious about making that change due to fact I haven't changed my cable service in 10 years, yet price has gone up 100% during that time-10%/year. Bad as the housing bubble. and yet the company is going bankrupt-(Charter). How does that work? Anyway, I figure I'll pull the plug-literally, within the next couple months if not sooner.

wv-girl
04-14-2009, 07:14 PM
Learned something else about account management this am, wasn't able to do what I thought I'd be able to do...which was link my taxable to my Roth so I could transfer funds into my Roth a little more quickly, like we do with TSP between funds. Doesn't work that way, unfortunately. what the brokerage means by linkage isn't what I wanted it to mean. Bummer. They only mean that I can manage within each account from the other account, but I can't move funds back and forth between accounts.

What firm holds your funds. When I opened my Scottrade acct, I was able to use their money direct feature to transfer funds. Was done in one day. Real easy.

alevin
04-14-2009, 08:36 PM
I'm using Options Xpress for the time being. they require all account setup paperwork to happen by snailmail, including setting up for electronic connection to bank account for funds transfers. Different sets of paperwork, different addresses to send paperwork.

I'm fully set up for e-transfers in the taxable account, it got set up first, I wanted to do some learning there so I wouldn't waste $ in Roth account in my learning curve about ETFs and stocks. Easier to replenish funds in taxable account than Roth, the way I was looking at it. Thing is, once I got some of the trading lumps and bumps evened out on the learning curve, I was going to split the funds in the taxable account and move half of them into the Roth account for 08.

I had to open the Roth account snailmail with a check to get it going, which just got done last week, so my move this week was to move the rest of the intended funds over from the taxable account. Oh well.

I am getting ready to send in the snailmail paperwork to have electronic funds transfer from bank account to Roth, but I don't have spare cash available at the moment to send from the bank account-all I had really to work with right now was the $ in the taxable account that's already there. I'll have more bank account funds later on for Roth 09, but I've lost the window for getting $ into Roth08. Live and learn. My bad for moving too slowly and only now figuring out more of the process lumps and bumps when it's too late for last tax year. :(

wv-girl
04-15-2009, 02:20 AM
I'm using Options Xpress for the time being. they require all account setup paperwork to happen by snailmail, including setting up for electronic connection to bank account for funds transfers. Different sets of paperwork, different addresses to send paperwork.

I'm fully set up for e-transfers in the taxable account, it got set up first, I wanted to do some learning there so I wouldn't waste $ in Roth account in my learning curve about ETFs and stocks. Easier to replenish funds in taxable account than Roth, the way I was looking at it. Thing is, once I got some of the trading lumps and bumps evened out on the learning curve, I was going to split the funds in the taxable account and move half of them into the Roth account for 08.

I had to open the Roth account snailmail with a check to get it going, which just got done last week, so my move this week was to move the rest of the intended funds over from the taxable account. Oh well.

I am getting ready to send in the snailmail paperwork to have electronic funds transfer from bank account to Roth, but I don't have spare cash available at the moment to send from the bank account-all I had really to work with right now was the $ in the taxable account that's already there. I'll have more bank account funds later on for Roth 09, but I've lost the window for getting $ into Roth08. Live and learn. My bad for moving too slowly and only now figuring out more of the process lumps and bumps when it's too late for last tax year. :(

Maybe you could contact them (options x)and ask if they could do the transfer between your accounts with them. Do they have good customer service? Seems to me they should have that capacity. Hate to see you lose an opportunity for 2008 -- not trying to stick my 2 cents in your business. Never hurts to ask the question.
Debbie

alevin
04-15-2009, 04:17 AM
Maybe you could contact them (options x)and ask if they could do the transfer between your accounts with them. Do they have good customer service? Seems to me they should have that capacity. -- not trying to stick my 2 cents in your business. Never hurts to ask the question. Debbie

Thanks for the suggestion, Debbie, I appreciate it, a lot. You're right, it doesn't hurt to at least try. I get frustrated at hitting roadblocks and give up all too easy sometimes. One of the biggest reasons I went with OptX was for their customer service, but they do seem to be sticklers for rules-which is also a really good thing, given all the fraud in the system these days everywhere we look. If they tell me it's not possible to do what I was hoping to do, I'll accept that and go down quietly and reset my attitude for better going with 09 funds. But I'll at least ask the question. thanks again for the suggestion, I wouldn't have gotten there on my own. Not today anyway. :wacko:

alevin
04-15-2009, 03:47 PM
Well, I called this morning and asked the question. turns out it can be done-with an email request. Yay! the email has been sent. And the tree trimmers are back this morning and finishing the job. Another YAY! :D
A good day so far, I won't let market action spoil it. :bigsmile:

wv-girl
04-15-2009, 05:40 PM
Well, I called this morning and asked the question. turns out it can be done-with an email request. Yay! the email has been sent. And the tree trimmers are back this morning and finishing the job. Another YAY! :D
A good day so far, I won't let market action spoil it. :bigsmile:

YAY! Glad to see that your planning is going your way. Now if this market would just start to make some sense.... Right now it just looks to me like the big boys are robbing more of the little peoples money with false hopes and manipulations. Still watching.

XL-entLady
04-15-2009, 05:43 PM
YAY! Glad to see that your planning is going your way. Now if this market would just start to make some sense.... Right now it just looks to me like the big boys are robbing more of the little peoples money with false hopes and manipulations. Still watching.
Allie, I'll add my congratulations to WV's. It's great that you were able to make it work after all. And I agree with the 'big boys' observation. This looks like options expiration week manipulation with a vengeance.

Lady

alevin
04-15-2009, 07:15 PM
thanks for the moral support, you two. It helped. And I agree, the boyz have been hard at work. Feel like GLD and DBC are going down-watching commodity developments various web commentaries, now that I've cleaned the cash out of the taxable account, I'll have to raise new cash by selling something, not sure what tho, so watching and waiting to decide. all cash in the Roth account at the moment. that's where I'll be stashing dividend stocks and foreign flavors-for tax reasons. Trying to stay with cap gains stocks/ETFs in taxable account-now if I can just keep that game plan straight in my head over time...

Next move in the Roth account will be to move mutual fund Roth $ out of mfunds into brokerage account and start managing those funds myself, couldn't do worse than that particular mutual fund family has over the past several years-not just talkin since 07 either-try 02. :sick:

alevin
04-16-2009, 01:11 AM
One last note on the funds transfer. It's a good thing I came home at noon today to pick up a couple items I needed after work that I'd forgotten to bring in the morning. I checked email re the transfer and saw where they said they couldn't do it due to unsettled funds from me selling IBB yesterday. I still had a partial wad of cash sitting on sidelines other than the unsettled funds-but I'd tried to include the new cash in the transfer as well, which gummed up the whole works. :wacko:

I thought you just couldn't buy new stocks with that cash during the settlement period, didn't realize couldn't even transfer it to another account same brokerage, same account holder!

I sent them back another email saying I had cash in the taxable account that weren't part of the unsettled situation, and to please transfer that amount anyway. Came home this pm to a message saying it did get done, so my 08 Roth account did get pumped up today, just not as much as I'd hoped it would. I could have sent a check postmarked today for the full desired amount, they told me, but as I said earlier, don't have it in the bank account right now, needed it to get drawn from the taxable account to extent they let me. Like I said, they come across as playing by the rules, which I appreciate totally even if the rules are sometimes aggravatin'. :rolleyes:

XL-entLady
04-17-2009, 01:58 PM
Hi Allie, just a quick visit to your home to mention that I really love your signature on our sister site. "Seek the truth...Ignorance is the cause of fear." With ETFs as with life, you've truly gone right to the core with that one! :)

Lady

alevin
04-20-2009, 12:51 AM
:) Nice to hear, Lady. It's a value I live by-or try to.

Just an update re my account(s). No action yet in the Roth, but I now have tradeable funds to work with.

Tradeable account action-Last Wed, I sold my IBB for a gain (see earlier post), Friday I did decide to try to unload slightly less than half my GLD (coulda, woulda, shoulda dumped the entire amount for sake of trading cost if nothing else). Bought it at 90, sold partial at 85.55.

The way the action was going Friday am before I left for work, I didn't think I'd get the sell limit I'd set, since price action had already steadily slipped below that level by the time I put my order in and committed to it. It was a day order only, good thing I didn't say sell at close, since it closed lower than the come-back level I unloaded at later in the am after I left for work. So far ( mostly due to trading fees), I'm down about 6% between the two accounts total-losses incurred in the taxable account. The more I trade the more account fees eat into the capital base, even when I don't sell for a loss.

Gotta watch that way more closely and do even better job of picking things I'm willing to hold for longer periods, or things with high volatility where I can get in on the right side of the trade and have enough time available to react to price changes. Not sure what that will be yet, workin' on it tho.

XL-entLady
04-20-2009, 12:40 PM
... Friday I did decide to try to unload slightly less than half my GLD (coulda, woulda, shoulda dumped the entire amount for sake of trading cost if nothing else). Bought it at 90, sold partial at 85.55.

.... So far ( mostly due to trading fees), I'm down about 6% between the two accounts total-losses incurred in the taxable account. The more I trade the more account fees eat into the capital base, even when I don't sell for a loss.

Gotta watch that way more closely and do even better job of picking things I'm willing to hold for longer periods, or things with high volatility where I can get in on the right side of the trade and have enough time available to react to price changes. Not sure what that will be yet, workin' on it tho.
I have also decided the hard way that in the last couple of months the only person I was making money for was my broker. I'm down way more in my account than 6% - like about 20% - because of the dumb moves I made with FAZ. That was an expensive lesson but I learned it well. Levered funds that rebalance daily might work for some folks but not for me!

Re the stock picking, I'm taking a book with me on my medical trip (leaving this morning) that may have part of that answer. It's called "The Ivy Portfolio" by Mebane Faber. I'll report back to the group on what, if anything :rolleyes:, I learned when I return.

Until then, good trading my friend!

Lady

alevin
04-29-2009, 02:58 PM
OK, today I decided to go mod-high risk in the roth account. bought ATN (U.S. based exploration and production outfit) @ $15.76, already gone up enough to cover the transaction cost-yay! It's been tracking the broader market tho, hit bottom early March, been on sloooow climb back since then, which makes me think it won't hurt as hard when the market takes another dive at some point (if I don't get out soon enough). P/E is excellent at the moment as is Price/book value, but yield is quite high, so there is trouble there internally I suspect, will be keeping sharp eye on things. Bought in Roth account so wouldn't have to pay taxes on interest income. Fingers are crossed, my first single-stock buy.

My second move of the morning isn't going quite as well-bought BP in taxable account-would have preferred to get in Roth account but not enough cash there at the moment, so into the taxable it went. Already went down a few bucks since the buy at $43.35 too. :suspicious: Ah well, they are in major cost-cutting mode, so P/E may get even better. it has an excellent P/E and dividend yield at the moment, not as high a yield as ATN so paying tax on dividends wouldn't in taxable account won't hurt quite as much. Wouldn't Birchie be proud? :toung:

alevin
04-30-2009, 03:05 AM
wow! I got in on ATN at a good time this morning, if had been earlier, could have scooped 11+% gain on the day with my morning buy. as it is, probably more like a 66 gain on the day (haven't run the calculations, rough estimate at this point). Enough to cover several of my less successful trades earlier on. But its my first single-stock buy, it pays a pretty high dividend and is cheap, so will plan on hanging onto it until P/E is 22 or more (read that as a sell rule of thumb for dividend stocks somewhere tonight). don't need to worry about dealing with short term capital gains on a sale sooner since its in the Roth account.

Wont talk about the BP buy yet-it was a slug today but not horrible. It's in the taxable account so intent is to hang on for longterm cap gains and dividends. My real plan is to put U.S. growth stocks, ETFs into the taxable account, put international and income/dividend stocks and ETFs into the Roth account. Forgot that part of the plan this am when I bought BP (foreign/dividend) for taxable. Probably cuz I haven't id'd any U.S. growth stock I want that bad for the taxable account yet.

XL-entLady
04-30-2009, 03:28 AM
wow! I got in on ATN at a good time this morning, if had been earlier, could have scooped 11+% gain on the day with my morning buy. as it is, probably more like a 66 gain on the day (haven't run the calculations, rough estimate at this point). Enough to cover several of my less successful trades earlier on. But its my first single-stock buy, it pays a pretty high dividend and is cheap, so will plan on hanging onto it until P/E is 22 or more (read that as a sell rule of thumb for dividend stocks somewhere tonight). don't need to worry about dealing with short term capital gains on a sale sooner since its in the Roth account.


Good job, congratulations!:)

Lady

alevin
04-30-2009, 03:41 AM
Eeeew! Just realize there's a serious typo in my last post. :embarrest: Supposed to read 6%, NOT 66! Eeek. If I was that good at stockpicking, I wouldn't still be working a day job, I dont think.

XL-entLady
04-30-2009, 03:53 AM
Eeeew! Just realize there's a serious typo in my last post. :embarrest: Supposed to read 6%, NOT 66! Eeek. If I was that good at stockpicking, I wouldn't still be working a day job, I dont think.
No problem, my friend. We read it like you thought it, not like you typed it. :)

Lady

justbizness45
04-30-2009, 04:14 AM
Congrats!!, excellent job!!

alevin
04-30-2009, 03:13 PM
You know the old axiom about letting your winners run? I'm so tempted to haul in on the reins, HARD! ATN up 5+% this morning on top of the 8% I managed yesterday. It's approaching the 200 MA on the weekly chart too-danger danger, will robinson!, but OTH, it's due for one of those big dividend distributions in the next week or so. What to do, what to do? Hang on tight and hold my hat, I guess.

XL-entLady
04-30-2009, 03:16 PM
Awesome, Allie! I just finished reading a trend trading book that kept pounding at the "let winners run" theme. But then, what do I know, I'm holding DNDN! :toung:

Lady

alevin
05-01-2009, 02:37 PM
Watched that 200 MA line this morning re ATN. Bumping up close but hasn't made it there yet. 17% in 2-3 days ain't bad 'tall, but its been wavering this morning like it doesn't want to cross that 200MA...soooo I decided to let the winner run a bit longer, but Still hauled back on the reins some. Something about pigs makes me nervous right now....don't want to eat any, or something like that.:rolleyes: Bird in hand?

Sold 2/3 of my position this morning, left 1/3 to run and I hope also capture some of the dividend payout due this month. Once the sale settles, I can load up on one of the other items I've got my eye on-maybe even capitalize on a general market drop this month? maybe. will see.

alevin
05-05-2009, 05:55 AM
I'm supposed to have some tradeable cash back in my account by Wednesday am, if not tomorrow am, so was looking at some more of my single stocks tonight (to see if they still look pretty good) that are on my list of possibles based on value criteria (and sector criteria too-Lady confirmed sector strength with one of her posts today-materials and industrials, as well as select energy stocks). I found something that surprised me, a pattern I saw over and over in the weekly charts-I sold most of my ATN last week, but hung onto some for the coming dividend this month. I may finish selling my ATN and BP this week and call it good for a bit-sit in cash again.

Look at the slo-sto and % short interest. Nearly every stock I looked at had the short interest shoot up at the same angle, either at beginning of April or about the 3d week of April, while slosto has shot up and is cruising along about 80-100 on nearly every chart I looked at tonight that are recent value stocks, not all are dividend stocks however. I don't thinkthe % short interest is related to dividends coming up, either, since they are quarterly and pattern didn't show up in Feb, which was the last declared dividend for the ones I looked at. Market ramp? market poof?:suspicious:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=atn&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=3&maval=15&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=1073741824&lf3=1024&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=2548976&style=320&time=7&freq=2&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=8967&mocktick=1

alevin
05-12-2009, 02:41 PM
trying to decide whether its time to unload the remaining ATN. Trendline is turning down from high (been tracking the broader market trendwise). Fundamentals are that dividends were withheld this month, pending merger with related company that will essentially become a growth stock rather than a dividend stock. Will issue slightly more shares of new company relative to existing shares of ATN. I just missed opportunity to become part of shareholder lawsuit by 2 days. If I'd bought 2 days earlier, I could sue for breach of fiduciary re existing shareholders who were expecting the dividend. As is, if they win and I'm still holding, should make stock price go down, but dividends will still get paid? OTH, if shareholders lose, the stock price still goes down due to lawsuit defense expenses? Is that likely, or would the suing shareholders eat the full legal costs?

OTH, the new company is parent to other aspects of oil and gas industry via pipelines and etc., so I'd get a more diversified exposure to oil and gas as commodity, just by owning the one new company. I only hold 50 shares, so the risk is relatively small total $wise, but %wise risk/rewardwise for $invested, somewhat bigger. Anybody see anything else to consider?

alevin
05-14-2009, 04:18 AM
Well, I'm still on the fence whether to sell the remainng ATN or not. I looked at the Ichimoku for DDG (1x inverse oil and gas) and decided to try to take it for a hedge today, rather than give up the ATN, but I put my limit order in about 6c too low and never budged when ticker started going back up again. Didn't want to chase it. day order only, so maybe I get to try again tomorrow.

BP is showing a slight decline as is the DBC today, but I'm not ready to give them up yet either. I've got my eye on another energy play that's really cheap already and came down a bunch today-its a biodiesel play and domestic China at that. think I'll use that as a diversifier and an average-downer play, rather than give up the ATN growth stock that it's becoming. The China stock has a small dividend, nothing like ATN, but...it really moved in that last rally and Motley Fool CAPS people have it in their radar scope too.

Ticker symbol is GU for anyone interested. It's definitely a "value" play and moving back into even better value territory as of today-of course it laso became a penny stock during the last downturn, so small investment level warranted totally-could become a big fat zero, but price:book value looks like I'd get my money out in liquidation if it came to that.

XL-entLady
05-14-2009, 12:48 PM
Wow, Allie, listen to you! I'm impressed! You always learn so much so quickly. :) Awesome.

Lady

alevin
05-22-2009, 04:38 AM
Just realized tonight I actually filled my limit order of DDG the other day (14th). I moved my limit price up from where I first tried to fill the day before, but was still below the bid-ask when I put in the day order the day it filled. boohoo, it came to me, but I came up to it first. If I'd only had more faith, I coulda filled a limit order well below where I did get it filled. :(:wacko:

At least I can say am showing a tiny profit on my tiny ddg oil hedge buy today. :rolleyes: ATN and BP were down a little today but still solid gains since I bought each. GLD was a better stock hedge today, glad I've held onto some of it til could show a profit finally.

I probably need to sell something, or buy a short ETF something, or both, just dithering at the moment, don't want to give any holding up quite yet. Will probably buy AND sell, I still have good cash on the sideline too. I almost boght some GU earlier this week, it was well down, but I wanted it to go down just a little more, instead it went up-substantially. Hm. I might still buy some. It's still moderately "cheap" in USD.

alevin
06-02-2009, 03:07 AM
Well, wish I'd held onto my original full purchase of ATN instead of getting spooked when it finally started showing a profit. Still got some tho, along with my original BP buy and DBC buy. Boy, I need to learn this hedging business better. Second time I've boughten DDG and regretted it both times. Good thing I own a lot less DDG than I do ATN and BP. I'm inclined to dump the DDG, but just don't believe this ramp job can continue much longer, we're back where we were last May/June with regard to weekly EMA cross I use for SPX. Guess I'll wait it out, thank goodness its only a 1x'r.

The GLD is doin alright these days too-finally, but rarified air comin up quick. Watching it close. BTW, I'm pulling down my first dividends ever! Got notified the other day its coming. Not a lot, but something. BP. The ATN has suspended divvy pending merger, and is enroute to becoming growth stock, no more divvys, but it's doing a good growth story for the moment which in part why I'm sticking with it til it gives me a reason not to (other than bagging out on divvys).

alevin
06-15-2009, 04:54 AM
Hooah! Never thought I'd see the day I'd be truly happy to redo my taxes after sending in my returns, but today's a lifetime event-so far. I'm HAAAPY! Got not 1 but 2 notices from state taxes dept. in the past 3 bizdays the gist was that I forgot to attach copies of my fed returns with my state returns and they want copies, and hurry up about it. I began digging out copies of tax records and when I started reviewing the fed return, I suddenly spotted a glaring error. In my favor! I'd never had to write the fed a check ever til this year and it was a biiig one, totally unexpected. Blamed it on not having the mortgage interest anymore due to paying off the house April a year ago and grumped as I wrote the check in a state of stunned bemusement-

Reviewing all day today and rechecking all numbers, I discovered the abnormal tax $ figure due was actually due to my time-stressed abnormally bad adding and subtracting-human error back at tax time. They owe me! And not just a refund of the check I sent either. A couple hundred more to boot. The Treasury took my check and said thank you-I'm sure they were smirking all the way, haven't bothered to tell me I overpaid-wonder why?:rolleyes:

If .gov isn't too broke to refund my money, think I'll stick it in my "be prepared" cash cushion I'm rebuilding. wonder how long they'll make me wait? (guess I have to do an amended return now, rats! and Oh JOY!!!):wacko:

etftalk
06-15-2009, 05:20 AM
Rats and joy - exactly. Just dealing with it is a pain, even when you get money back.

Don't spend it all in one place! :)

alevin
06-24-2009, 04:21 AM
Forgot to mention I sold my GLD several days ago @ $92.60, had bought at 91.5, watched it go down then up, then down again. Decided to bail while still showing a profit, coulda woulda shoulda bailed when I saw the trend turning over. Oh well, still learning. Still got the ATN and BP. Logged the dividend on BP recently-yay, my first. ATN is taking a nosedive after rollercoastering up the past several weeks, hanging tough at the 50MA tho and I still have a profit. The ATN is in the Roth account, at the time I thought I'd made a mistake, now I'm thinking its ok. I can sell w/o fear of shortterm cap gains whenever I choose, or maybe wait and average down-ooh bad idea. How about sell high, buy low? Meanwhile BP and DBC in the taxable account, hedging a little with DDG (1x short), but not fully hedged. Both BP and DBC turned over too and hanging tough at 50MA. I should get rid of both while I still have some profit, even if end up paying shortterm cap gains. decisions decisions.

alevin
07-09-2009, 02:51 PM
Garsh, I'm feeling the urge to buy, been sitting on about 40% cash in Roth and taxable for a few months now. Emotional urge? yeah, must mean its time to sell. Still got profits to harvest, but stalling on the sell based on tax considerations, longterm vs. shortterm (I have a lot to learn yet about tradeoffs-I'll probably learn via mistakes and post-mortem analyses :rolleyes:). Keep thinking too about waiting and using the cash to add on the BIG drop I believe is yet to come this year, so if I can just hold off on the URGE, think I'll make some better decisions, at least on the BUY side. Sell side remains to be seen. Glad I sold my remaining GLD tho a couple weeks ago at small profit.:) No regrets there.

JTH
07-09-2009, 03:22 PM
Sitting with cash sounds good to me.

My silver (SLW) and oil/tech (IO) plays have fallen below my baseline price, and previous support levels. It could get ugly real quick, so maybe better buying opportunities are just around the corner?

alevin
07-15-2009, 04:00 AM
Still sitting, but thinking of bailing DDG tomorrow. As a side note, I got an estimate from local electrical contractor this week for upgrading wiring situation in my house. the estimate is only good for a week, the explanatory note on the bid said bid only good for a week due to fluctuations in copper prices.-makes me think he thinks copper going higher short-term. Anybody here got a different take?

wv-girl
07-21-2009, 01:10 AM
Hi Alevin,
Caught your post on sister site. Thanx for the reading info. Sounds good. Been having a really busy summer myself. I have family coming next week, I've been trying to get ready for that, plus doing double duty at work since the boss is on vacation, it seems there is never enuff time anymore to get much accomplished or even enjoy what is accomplished..Boss comes back next week and I go on vacation. Barely enuff time to catch him up on stuff. Hope I am not too exhausted to sport my family around to whatever spots they wish to see. Then I will need a vacation from my vacation. whew. Anyway, I am still around, just not as often.

Hope your getting some good trades from the rally.. See ya next time and thanks again for the reading suggestion.
wv-girl

alevin
08-12-2009, 04:28 AM
Wow! we sure aren't very talky around here lately. Decided to make a little chatter just to freshen things up. :bigsmile:

I'm thinking I'll unload my DBC in the morning, it's just been skunking around way too long. "skunking around" is a term used in the wildland fire mgt. world, lol.

If I sell, it'll still be a small profit, right now indicators are that it'll go down shortly, even tho a big part of it is oil and my oil stocks are still hanging in there at much bigger % increase than DBC, from where I bought them. I'm hoping I can hold the 2 stocks for a year to do the longterm cap gains thing w/o doing myself damage, but DBC seems to be a lot more shakey to hold onto much longer.

think I'll feel better about the other 2 if I unload the DBC now. I still have dry powder besides, so once the DBC is off my mind I may have a lot clearer head to make some new buy decisions re UUP or an inverse or something when the Smoke on the Water clears off a little more. :suspicious:

alevin
08-17-2009, 04:14 PM
sold the ATN this morning from Roth account for ~80% profit @$24.80. It's headed to zero on Rate of Change (short-term sell signal indicator). BP (trading account) has already crossed below zero and DBC (big chunk is oil) is sitting on zero line. Am holding a small bit of DDG to offset any losses in DBC (still have a small profit in DBC to offset small losses in DDG).

Show-me
08-20-2009, 10:52 AM
Holy Crap Batman! You did good!

alevin
08-21-2009, 02:16 PM
Yeah, did good! made up for earlier errors a bit. Picked ATN as one of my first 2 stocks ever,the being BP. I bought based on fundamentals mostly, as well as charts, as well as it was supposed to have a great dividend, but right after I bought in, they suspended the next dividend that was due. Some would say that was a good enough reason to sell right there, changing their rules that were one of my buy criteria. I was pretty unhappy at the time, but held off selling since they were going up. Wish I'd waited til the ROC sell signal completed, they decided last couple days to not close the sell signal, reversed course and hit $27! Birch would laugh and tell me should coulda, told you so, but DeMark Indicators I'm learning are saying it's close to another sell signal again about now anyway. We'll see how that plays out. Maybe I'll be able to get back in lower later again.

alevin
09-16-2009, 04:03 PM
Bought GAS this morning for Roth acct. Canadian NG -price performance completely inverse to UNG. Finally sold DDG (1x short oil) in Roth for approx. 15% loss (small position fortunately), hung onto it WAY too long. Every short ETF I've bought this year has hurt me. I'm going to lay low now and wait for the good longs, quit playing the shorts until I really really know which way things are going. I don't need to hedge in roth acct (my thinking was screwed up there, unscrewed now). Put in a day order on new Nordic ETF GXF but hasn't filled yet.

alevin
09-21-2009, 03:33 AM
Did manage to buy GXF on Friday for Roth, along w/3 pipeline MLPs to replace the ATN MLP I sold recently. the pipeline MLPs are BWP, MGG and WMB (1 totally NatGas, 1 mixed-oil, gas, 1 strictly oil.)

One thing should have checked before buying tho-earnings>dividends. 2 of 3 meet that criterion, one does not. eating its children/assets to keep partners happy-not a good idee, think I'll sell it quick, bad investment to have made in first place-didn't look close enough. I still have dry powder so can still buy something else in its place this week while the sale settles.

Some say shouldn't buy MLPs in tax-deferred accounts due to tax complexity with portion of distributions counting as unrelated (taxable) business income-that only makes a difference if have >$1000 in distributions from all MLPs in a given year-that won't happen for me, my accounts too small yet.

alevin
09-24-2009, 03:58 PM
Sold 10 shares MGG this am for tiny profit, didn't offset trade fees but am glad to be out anyway, they're paying divvy's>earnings, which I didn't notice before I bought. Put in small day order for SH, didn't fill yet.

alevin
12-15-2009, 03:15 PM
Here I go again. Time will tell if this was a smooth move or not. GDXJ-small/mdm gold producer stox ETF. I've been thinking about individual buys, but haven't gotten up the nerve. maybe this will satisfy the urge.

alevin
12-18-2009, 02:34 PM
Hmmm. I still have ammunition stockpiled in the Roth. I see that Ebb is recommending EOD buy on SPY and DIA on Monday. I may just do that, haven't traded any of his signals since summer 07. Don't know if I'll be brave enough to go for the QLD signal tho. Need to stick some more $ in the Roth soon for this tax year.

alevin
05-01-2010, 12:28 AM
Haven't been here in awhile. Finally got fresh stash to work with in the Roth account earlier this month, should be burning a hole in my pocket but its not. Haven't had time to do enough research to pick new positions I want to take-if any. shorts-I've gotten burned on them, don't enjoy that, would rather be long if anything. Altho....may have to dump the BP here pretty quick and figure out how to do some puts there. Prognosis isn't pretty. GDXJ is doing pretty fine right now at least.

etftalk
05-01-2010, 01:15 AM
Good to see you back here again! It's been quiet. I haven't been doing much lately either, although I did do a little buying toward the close today. I'll have a quick trigger finger if the market doesn't rebound by Tuesday.

alevin
06-16-2010, 01:29 AM
So I should have sold the BP when I first talked about it 6 weeks ago. I'm such a slow decision-maker. Intuition told me to sell then , but then I talked myself out of it-and slipped down the slope of hope, slow and steady debating with myself all the way. Kind of the inverse of my inner-selftalk all the way up from March 09 when intuition saw that first 90% up candle and said BUY! and then I didn't trust myself to do it-the whole way up. OK.

I finally sold the 20 shares of BP today, for approx 30% loss ($31 and change) from when I bought them at $43 and change last year. If I'd sold at the end of April like I said I was thinking of doing, I'd still have had something like an 80% profit on those shares. dam I am hardheaded and indecisive. Maybe I'm not cut out to be a trader.

Either that or I've just finished taking my learning lumps on both the buy side and sell side for the big trend stuff. I need to trust my intuition on these big trend reversal move indicators, whether it be based on mega-fundamentals like the spill or something I see in the chart that my gut tells me is BIG (which it did last year when I saw that first biiig green candle in early March).

still hanging tight on my other holdings, no buying or selling the past several months, haven't been in the right frame of mind.

alevin
08-11-2010, 01:33 AM
today I sold a small holding of GAS (20 shares) for a 16%+ net gain on the trade in the Roth account. Wish I'd taken a bigger position. would have helped to offset the loss on BP in the taxable account. Hey, all I need is one more trade of that size and that kind of gain and I might end up flat for the year between the 2 accounts.

but I can write off the loss on BP against gain on something else if I sell in the taxable account for a gain that size-nothing looking good yet tho for that objective.

At least OptionsXpress has dropped their commissions by 30% recently. signal of deflation, but it may encourage me to find some other good moves to trade into before end of the year. I'm building a list. Right now still deciding on UUP vs. UDN. UUP is looking good, may acquire some tomorrow.

alevin
09-22-2010, 03:44 PM
I have GDXJ in the taxable account. doing fantastic at the moment, but I haven't held it quite a year yet, a few months to go. question is sell now while the gains are good, and risk paying the shortterm cap gains, but let it offset the loss in BP....or do I wait the full year for sake of longterm cap gains and hope the gains are enough to offset the loss in BP. what to do, what to do. first time ever trying to play the offset gains vs. loss game, combined with shortterm vs. longterm cap gains tax. such a newb I am. not enough involved to drag in a tax advisor unfortunately.

alevin
01-19-2011, 02:07 AM
Hey, I'm back! made it a whole year+ with the GDXJ for longterm cap gains. bought at $26.05, sold at $36.13, could have sold higher sooner but waited til the turn was definite. BarCharts put on mixed buy/sell/hold on long, intermediate and short time frames by now, which I discovered last night-decided not to pull another BP like I did last year.

Problem is, my gain was good but I only had a half position. the commission has dropped by 30% since last year, but aggregate commission bit on the gain was 10%, so net gain was 34%. less taxes, I guess I had a real net gain of about 25% if I calculated correctly. Hmm, I need to go for bigger positions now that I'm getting more comfortable with my own judgement.

sitting on some other small/partial positions at the moment that have been wandering around for past year but finally taking off. WMB, GXF, DBC.

the newest addition to the stable is COUGF-just added to the Canadian TSX index-conventional oil field explorer/producer-just started producing-got a lot of good land to work with. they've taken off since I bought, but come back in a bit. I have a price target in mind, going to sit on it til it gets much closer. I think some of the original owners sold off a bit of holdings when it hit the most recent top-below my target price. Its consolidating now.

etftalk
01-19-2011, 02:23 AM
Nice job, alevin!!

XL-entLady
01-19-2011, 04:37 PM
Your patience paid off, super! I need to learn to be more patient with my positions sometimes. Having a Roth, so not having to think of tax consequences is not a good thing for me. :toung:

Good to see your post!

Lady

BruceinGa
01-19-2011, 08:10 PM
Good pick!

alevin
01-20-2011, 01:41 PM
I have Roth and taxable-both relatively tiny so have to be careful don't burn up the seed corn with trading commissions-another reason I try to pick something for longer holds and/or fabulous gains-or both. If I was totally convinced of my stockpicking skills, I'd take bigger positions in the first place. I'm still sitting 1/2 cash or better in both accounts (too much, I know)-only have 2-3 ETFs/stocks in each account. that way I have something to use if I see a terrific buy out there somewhere, don't have to wait on 3-day settlement to buy. still need to finish funding Roth account for 2010 in next couple weeks and tuck some more into the taxable while I'm at it. Once I get account(s) level(s) up to 5 figures, I will start feeling braver about putting 75% into stocks/ETFs at any one time-as long as mr. market gives general trend information.

still waiting to see how much more I need to juggle home budget to try and add to these for 2011-after I take a look at pp 1 earnings statement (takehome) with all the changes-SS, TSP, FSA, taxes, increasing gas and food costs, etc. earnings statement won't be available to review until tomorrow.

XL-entLady
01-20-2011, 02:36 PM
You are so responsible financially. Good model for the rest of us. :) Thanks for explaining your position.

Lady

alevin
03-01-2011, 02:26 PM
got my 2010 roth fully funded, cash sitting on sidelines. decided to put in lowball bids this morning on STO and EWD. Already have some STO in the GXF I'm still holding, but wanted to bump up the STO. The EWD increases exposure to swedish economy which is doing well right now-not a euro-nation. financial situation pretty good and strong on commodities too.

limit orders good til deleted-I usually end up paying more than low of the day, thought i'd try something new-bids at the 50 MA, gap close.

XL-entLady
03-02-2011, 02:46 PM
Interesting. Let us know how that works for you, okay?

alevin
03-03-2011, 01:29 AM
well, got the EWD this morning, for better or worse. right on the 50 ma. end of day a small spinning top body sitting on top of the ma, close a little above, on rising volume compared to yesterday which was a solid down day.

this is in the roth account so the cap gains/loss thing doesnt figure into my strategy at all, just trading costs which are 30% lower than they were when i opened the account in 08. but the less i trade the fewer the trading costs eating up my little pile, so i'm tring to buy things i'll hold onto awhile, tho not necessarily a year.

The STO is still hanging above several daily gaps, theres a weekly gap too, i think i set that limit order at the base of that weekly gap, would have to go back and look. letting it come to me-i like it. cant do that so easy with the tsp.

alevin
03-07-2011, 02:18 PM
gave up on STO coming back to me anytime soon, cancelled the order. placed an order for USL, will see if can get that one filled at my price, low of the day.

XL-entLady
03-07-2011, 03:14 PM
Good luck with it!

alevin
03-08-2011, 05:09 AM
So I got me some USL today. I put in limit order for base of the mornings candle, neglected to notice a small gap from yesterday- dang it, should have put order in at a price that would have closed the gap. instead, I bought in near the days lows, but still higher than if I'd gone for the gap-closer price.

Hey, I'm learning every day, getting better everyday at entry price. get it for the price I'm willing to pay or else don't buy, go buy something else.

etftalk
03-08-2011, 03:29 PM
Hey, I'm learning every day, getting better everyday at entry price. get it for the price I'm willing to pay or else don't buy, go buy something else.
I still haven't learned that. :unsure:

I've actually been using Scottrade's alert system rather than limit orders just so I don't have to tie up funds.

alevin
03-09-2011, 04:03 AM
tried another entry price strategy today. found an article that calculated fair price for SLW based on spot price of silver. SLW was cheap today relative to spot price of silver, by several$, so I paid a penny higher than bottom of this mornings bid-ask spread. got filled too.

The USL is still way below its 2008 peak. I dont expect it to go that high this time, just hope it doesnt drop me on my head, but also figured it evens out the contango-backwardation problems USO AND UNG have, being equal-weighted on futures or something like that.

alevin
03-14-2011, 02:50 PM
been looking at uranium stocks for awhile. today is huge gap down, buy low, sell high. bought URA-50 shares. potential longterm play. future reactors will be designed with even more conservative margins for safety and site location around the world. world needs energy, solar and wind wont get us there, not by themselves. We had a carrier badly exposed to radiation this morning. I feel horrible-could have been my brother. he was based out of san diego the last several years of his service time. dont know what carrier he was on, could have been this one. mixed emotions about purchase for sure.

Japans reactors were not built to withstand quake of this magnitude, I also read this morning, and safety inspection records not all that reliable, going back years. tighter regulation and inspections coming I hope.

XL-entLady
03-16-2011, 01:57 PM
Good luck with the uranium play. My ConEd was pulled down by the backlash against nuclear energy. If we have new reactors built in this country we've got to get newer technology. JMO.

alevin
03-24-2011, 01:35 AM
Thanks Lady. Agreed on the tech. The ones lined up for permitting right now are much newer designs than the ones impacted by the tsunami. But I'm actually most interested in thorium reactors right now-technology developed decades ago-follows the recycle-reuse concept, less waste to store, more energy available. but it comes as byproduct of coal-burning-net reduction in CO2 production since get more bang for the coal ton burned.

US didn't invest in the technology when we could have, because uranium reactors were able to provide plutonium byproducts for cold war weaponry. thorium can't be used that way. China, France and Scandinavian countries are working on thorium right now. cheaper infrastructure too. Britain was starting to go down that road but pulled back in favor of "green" wind and solar. their loss, ours too if we don't get some momentum going.

I was researching stocks this morning before work that could be decent direct thorium (non-commodity) engineering plays for the global longterm, got a few names, not ready to buy.

On another tech-energy note, I bought my second penny stock today-set price where I wanted it, didn't know if it would come to me or not, but it did. I didn't chase it, used previous consolidation level as price. It was above that and not moving at all this morning while I watched.

VNDB-inventors of a patented paper battery that may become a cheap fairly easily-recyclable substitute for metal batteries some day. Might be a longterm holding. got it for ultra-cheap so can afford to hang onto it for awhile, see where it can go. Of course the big boyz might buy out the company and bury it so deep it never sees light of day again-too big a threat to traditional metal battery-makers or even alt-energy supportive metal battery makers.

Interesting concept tho to someone associated professionally with wood-fiber industry (marginally, very marginally). One reason I bought. other is, it sounds real, and maybe a real game-changer if can get legs under it.

alevin
04-21-2011, 03:24 PM
well still underwater on the URA, but I thought it would be longterm hold when I bought it. trying to protect against ongoing $ devaluation now-China is developing bi-lateral currency exchanges with other countries now and divesting $. read they are now buying euros with $. I dont want to buy euro etf FXI so decided to buy some yuan etf instead-CYB. hope that wasnt a dumb move.

alevin
04-30-2011, 05:49 PM
I decided to try following DecisionMoose signals in my very small brokerage account. they do like SentimentSurvey 100%, signal has had them in IWM since last November-signal switched this Friday to GLD at EOD. Way it works, buy the following week when price drops below Friday EOD for GLD.

I'll be doing that for half my taxable account, the other half is still in DBC since 09. It's done well for me, not ready to give it up yet. I may sell the DBC if I see it turn against me on weekly basis (DeMark price flip), if I do then I'll buy more GLD when it settles.

The ETF Timing14 system I mentioned couple weeks ago-I sat and watched performance of its signals the past 2 weeks before wading in. Weekly signals-buy COB on Monday after End of Week signal the prior Friday. I think I'll follow the Moosignal system of buying below the Friday close, even if that means wait a day or 2. Definitely the EWO signal a couple weeks ago, that would have paid off bigtime that week.

Their signal went to TLT last week due to market instability issues. They ended green, marginally, back to EWO for the coming week. I'll take the signal for EWO this time round-in the Roth account.

alevin
05-03-2011, 12:12 AM
So I hedged my gold bet today in the taxable account-bought CEF @ the close, big spinning candle. bought equal amount of IAU at the close (low of the day, sitting right on the 50 MA). this is taxable account-an intermediate-term play on GLD-DecisionMoose called for switch to GLD as of COB last Friday-signal had been in IWM since last fall.

My bid for EWO is still sitting unfilled in Roth account. I may drop it lower tomorrow, see what happens. this play is only good for a week before new signal expected-different ETF trading system than DecisionMoose-I have more leeway for trading commissions in this account for more frequent trading for bigger rate of growth in the account. the other account is not big enough to tolerate frequent commissions.

alevin
05-03-2011, 02:51 PM
My GTC buy order for the EWO in Roth account got filled this morning-well below yesterdays price range, but above Fridays closing price. This play is only til next Monday, so hope it plays out as a decent gain-I put real $ into it so the gains would cover commissions and still have a gain.

Got real $ dry powder still for next weeks signal-use that to buy next weeks recommendation while selling the EWO. Letting other earlier purchases ride for time being. The URA and USL, GXF, EWD, COUGF and FNDB, WMB. Thinking of selling the WMB-really good gains since early last year and same with GXF-but then again....let winners ride.

I need to sell the URA and the other spec ones, can't make myself pull the trigger. still got a gain on the COUGF but it keeps drifting lower and lower towards my buyin price. still got enough gain to pay the commissions if I sell now. rolling eyes.

alevin
05-11-2011, 02:42 PM
Sold DBC this morning ~40% gain, held since around April 09, so longterm cap gains, not shortterm. Bailed out because finally learned value of Keltner channels-they signal trend change, monthly Keltner channel showed the trend change-hadn't signaled change in trend since 09.

Other holdings still sitting, some I wish I'd done more chart analysis before buying, others still in good position since I bought. still learning but feeling good about DBC sale at this time.

alevin
05-12-2011, 02:40 AM
finally noticed where OptX hides their trailing stop action. haven't tried it, too bad I didn't have it figured out sooner. almost too late now for some of the stuff I've indulged in the last few months. Now I either hold for who knows how long, or I wait til I get REEALLLY good buy signals much lower and buy more to average down-usually a baaad idea. IAU, CEF, SLW? maybe a bad idea, maybe not, I'll be watching the Williams %R for buy signal and Keltner channels for trend change on the monthly, not necessarily in that order. The GXF, EWO and EWD-plays on euro-not sure where they're headed yet. undecided.

I didn't buy the weekly trading signal for OIL at beginning of the week-figured if oil-related stuff went up this week over my buyin price in USL, I could maybe trade up and out and be done with it, start over fresh on that theme a little differently.

etftalk
05-13-2011, 02:24 PM
The GXF, EWO and EWD-plays on euro-not sure where they're headed yet. undecided.
Those are some light volume ETF's - at least compared to some of the more popular U.S. ETF's. EWO, for example traded 38,000 shares as of 10:22 AM this morning vs. 3 million share of SSO have been traded.

I'm not sure if it matters, but when liquidity is that low I always worry more about manipulation. They can be pushed around pretty easily, unless they are directly tied to an index, I guess.

alevin
05-20-2011, 03:56 PM
Sold 50 GXF this morning. Held since Sept 09. Profit @ approx 30% after commissions. multiple indicators suggested good time to sell. could have let it ride a bit longer, but decided to raise some cash for new buys. some better deals out there I think, or will be-got to make up for paper losses in IAU, CEF, SLW, URA, USL at this point.

alevin
05-21-2011, 02:24 AM
So along with selling the GXF this morning, I had a GTC sell order in for the 20 shares WMB I've been holding almost 2 years now-both were held in Roth account. sold the WMB for about 60% gain.

this was one of my first ever buys-pretty proud of it, but didn't risk much on it to begin with, didn't have much in the account to work with 2 years ago.

the more recent buys I guess I was less cautious, must have felt the wealth effect of fresh contributions to Roth-bot half and full positions. recent buys aren't doing so well at least shortterm. how longterm I'd have to hold the recent buys to recoup losses-could be awhile. a long while. debating selling the losers too-watching them go glub glub still a the moment. maybe I'll just average down now that I got some cash freed up. hmm.

In the Roth, I'm trying to start following that ETF14 weekly trading system I talked about, but the last 3 weeks they wanted me to trade in and out of EWO and OIL. the OIL didn't look good to me so I didn't buy that week, and the EWO tanked after I bought it the week it was supposed to do well, I'm still holding onto it hoping to trade at break even at some point. don't want trading costs to eat me alive.

etftalk
05-21-2011, 03:06 PM
Nice job on the 60% gain. Why is it that the small ones always work out the best? :) Probably because we take profits more on the larger holdings.

alevin
05-29-2011, 07:45 PM
well shoot, I just realized I screwed up worse than I thought I did buying IAU AND CEF when I did. I forgot my plan to only buy them for the Roth account, not in the taxable account. bought at a high, watched them drop, now they are rising again...I need to sell them both and get them out of the taxable account where any profits get nailed for 28% tax as collectibles. arg. hits head. Plan the work and work the PLAN!!! :eek: at least I realized before had any screaming gains. I can use any loss to offset the longterm gains on the dbc at least.

RealMoneyIssues
05-31-2011, 02:44 AM
I need to sell them both and get them out of the taxable account where any profits get nailed for 28% tax as collectibles. arg.

Too bad we have to be SO concerned with taxes. For me, I would take the profits, keep the taxable part in a money market account, and then use the remainder to make more money... unless I am missing something... :)

alevin
06-10-2011, 02:00 AM
I got tired of losing $ in CEF (thanks to the silver component). down about 9%. taxable account. I'll use the loss to offset gain from sales of dbc earlier this year. decided to keep the IAU in the taxable account a bit longer, try to at least break even.

In the roth account, I unloaded EWD for gain of about 6%. then unloaded SLW. bad buy, should have unloaded much much sooner when I saw the trade go against me almost immediately. that one hurt. but now I'm about 45% cash and able to hunt for something much more likely to pay off. not sure what that will be yet, but something will show up. I'm getting better at seeing technical buy signals all the time, just need to put it into practice. and learn how to pull the trigger to get out much more quickly when I've got a good gain in the Roth or see the trade go against me in a noticeable way. don't need to hang in for longterm capgains, not in this account, and not in this market.

alevin
07-22-2011, 03:14 AM
so today I put bids in on a couple ETFs-day trades-didn't get a bit on either one (XOIL and TSXV). put in day-trade bid on one stock-it bit. should have bid a little lower than I did on it, got a red outside candle on the day, it was up this morning before I went to work. but newletter I subscribe to said decent price right now, and the chart looked like a bull flag, so I went in small-all I wanted to afford of a $60+ stock-20 shares of RIG.

still holding IAU-finally showing a paper profit-barely. still holding others previously mentioned-not much to talk about there.

alevin
07-29-2011, 02:32 PM
sold EWO for a loss this morning. originally bought as a 1-week trade in an ETF strategy I wanted to start following. but it dropped the week I bought it so thought I could hang in and on, let it sneak higher then sell, meanwhile move on with next signals with other $. mistake. holding ewo on the side has inhibited my following strategy with rest of $. euro situation not going toget better longterm, time to give up, use the saved funds for something better.

alevin
08-19-2011, 12:59 AM
I've lost quite a bit on my longs thus far: URA, USL especially, plus a couple spec stocks. Have been waiting for the big reversal-saw it coming this morning before work-was expecting it, had just enough time to buy 100 of DOG-profit thus far. I'm not doing the 2-3 X leveraged ETFs-I'm not good enough or quick enough for those.

Trying to offset the losses so far in the others. Uggh. nothing like trying to recoup portfolio as a whole-Roth account.

alevin
10-18-2011, 03:02 AM
So I've been doing absolutely lousy with these accounts since early in the year. UGGGG. sold off one of the spec penny stocks, won't tell anyone but the accountant how much I lost on that one-good thing it was a penny stock, %wise it hurt hugely, cashwise, some but not near as much. same with the other I'm still holding onto. The ETFs are in sad shape but they are long energy ETFs and so I will hold until they come back up, however long that takes. with inflation will probably be way lower value even when they come back up in nominal terms. Ug.

So today I let the price come to me again like I was trying to do there awhile back, put in a good til cancelled bid on a stock that ended up running away from me the other day. wish I'd set the limit price below the gap that's in the chart earlier than the limit price I bid, it might get there (to the gap) much sooner than I thought it would. when it does, I might buy some more. Good dividend MLP for the retirement account. BWP. now I just need to ask the brokerage to pay me in stock and not in cash for the dividends.

etftalk
10-18-2011, 12:56 PM
It hasn't been easy for the investors for a long time. The S&P is sitting at 1200 and the first time it hit 1200...? 1998.

Some day buy and hold will work. Probably about the time the big financial companies start accepting my mantra that friends don't let friends buy and hold. :) Of course they don't want anyone trading, They want to play with our money while we wait at home for our statements.

I'm not sure why I went there. I digress. Good luck! I think Nov / Dec could be good months.