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etftalk
03-02-2009, 02:53 PM
Natural gas (UNG) actually looks like it wants to go higher. Deep downtrend, but outside day last week on big volume with close to the upside,and today some follow through but now bumping against the 20-DMA. This sucker has been hammered.

etftalk
03-16-2009, 08:31 PM
Natural Gas Rigs Shutting Means Prices May Double (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a3PoNVnytrgo&refer=home)

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas drillers from Devon Energy Corp. to XTO Energy Inc. are idling rigs at the fastest pace since 2002, setting the stage for this year’s worst commodity to almost double as supplies drop faster than demand. More (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a3PoNVnytrgo&refer=home)

alevin
03-17-2009, 06:05 AM
I was reading that today too, may take a harder look in the morning. Maybe still a bit early from other things I've been reading? The outside day signal tho is a weighty consideration in favor of jumping in tho. thanks for pointing that one out, Tom.

Bullitt
03-17-2009, 12:01 PM
Natural Gas historically tends to bottom towards the end of winter and I'm guessing it's a sell the news type event. Accumulate it steadily as the weather gets nicer.

How about this as a play guys: PXJ Powershares Dynamic Oil and Gas Services.

etftalk
03-17-2009, 03:29 PM
I'm guessing it's a sell the news type event.
I was thinking the same thing. When's the last time you read a headline, invested based on it, and made money?

XL-entLady
03-17-2009, 03:46 PM
Natural Gas historically tends to bottom towards the end of winter and I'm guessing it's a sell the news type event. Accumulate it steadily as the weather gets nicer.

How about this as a play guys: PXJ Powershares Dynamic Oil and Gas Services.
I am actually looking hard at PXJ, which should be scary to you because my buys are usually a contrarian indicator. :suspicious: :toung:

Lady

Bullitt
05-04-2009, 12:55 AM
Look at that, PXJ up some 30% since mid March. Just my luck, I didn't act on it and it's off to the races. It does look to be sitting on good support at 13.

Any thoughts on UNG? I'm thinking that ETF will continue to get pounded as long as contango is an issue.

XL-entLady
05-04-2009, 01:25 AM
I didn't end up buying it either. :( I lived in oil country for a lot of years. And the more I thought about it the more I decided the industry is too weird for me. Now I keep hearing that OIH is the next big thing. But I'm going to leave that one alone too. Contango is just one of many things that can go wrong in the oil industry.

Lady

alevin
05-04-2009, 04:18 AM
Any thoughts on UNG? I'm thinking that ETF will continue to get pounded as long as contango is an issue.
Bullitt, IMO NatGas has a lot of variables at this point, huge world supply-LNG very nearly cheaper than domestic shale production at this point, despite tech developments here and huge new discoveries stateside-LNG coming in from overseas-to every port that will let the tankers come in.

Believe me, we're dealing with the LNG tanker port issue here in the NW and it is probably coming, despite resistance. I think it's way more than contango looking out into the future. I keep looking at that UNG slide and the LNG competition is holding me back from jumping in the deep end, darn it.

My ATN that I sold 2/3 of this past week is domestic oil and gas both but the volume this past week looked like serious manipulation, not to mention price topped out at the 200MA Friday and stopped. Glad I took some profits before the manipulators jerked the rug.

Bullitt
05-04-2009, 08:18 PM
Thanks for your thoughts, you two. I'm just trying to make some sense of UNG getting pummeled day after day. I mean, the story is there for gains, but we all know how 'story stocks' go.

Lady, maybe you're not so contrarian as you think.

Bullitt
05-05-2009, 09:14 PM
Alright, I jumped in during the AH session and purchased UNG at 14.45 last night. If only I would have waited I could have gotten 'em cheaper. It's all good though. This is planned purchase 1 of 3. I will make at least 2 more to make up my target, but may add even more depending on how things go. Example- If this thing begins to base, I'll probably add more aggressively to it.

I have limit orders set for purchase but no stops, so if you're following along, be prepared for a wild ride!

Bullitt
05-08-2009, 08:43 PM
UNG very overbought right now but hoping it finds support at the 15-16 region on the next pullback. I'm still looking to commit my other 2/3 to this ETF on weakness.

Bullitt
05-21-2009, 07:45 PM
$natgas still over it's 50DMA, but UNG broke through pretty hard to the downside. Today might be a volume record for UNG and I wonder if that means anything seeing that volume overall has been quite light this week.

I still have GTC orders lower and I'm thinking there's a good chance they can get hit tomorrow or next week.

Bullitt
05-22-2009, 03:36 PM
Bought more UNG at 13.66 with an equal amount to last purchase. I have had this limit order in for a few weeks now and it finally hit today. I have others set even lower.

Haha, this thing is a volatile ride for sure!

etftalk
05-22-2009, 04:16 PM
Good luck Bullitt! Have you thought about a nat gas futures contract?

Bullitt
05-22-2009, 04:58 PM
I have, but honestly I don't think I know enough about that kind of thing. One negative is that these commod ETF's don't track the futures contracts so well because of the need to roll over contracts. So, for now, this is the best I can do.

I tried Forex and it was alright. I'd like to try a few practice futures accounts, but either I haven't been looking hard enough or they aren't as prevalent as Forex.

Bullitt
05-22-2009, 11:43 PM
If history is an accurate guide, and the March 9 low proves to be the final low, then natural gas stocks could continue to rally through mid July, and then sell off until February. The first leg of this analysis is on track.http://tinyurl.com/omhsdg

Bullitt
06-03-2009, 08:12 PM
Bought more UNG at $14.87 with a prior set GTC order shortly after the open. Could have gotten 'em cheaper, but that's the breaks. I probably won't add any more unless we go below the low 13's.

XL-entLady
06-04-2009, 01:35 PM
Good luck, Bullitt! In a May 27 Bloomberg interview, Marc Faber says natural gas is the most undervalued commodity.

http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/


Lady

alevin
06-11-2009, 02:28 PM
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/6464946.html

A new article on gas/oil price relationship and price prognoses into 2010. I'm thinking its getting close to time to buy UNG, but the LNG import situation is still developing on the west coast, which keeps price pressure low. Now if it were just the domestic suppliers, I'd say we're about to go on a tear, and if the $ tanks to where we can't afford imports? It's possible, just don't know when or to what extent. My ATN is both oil and domestic gas, so I'm keeping an eye on both markets and competitor supply (LNG) trends

Bullitt
07-07-2009, 10:04 PM
Bought more UNG today at $12.22. The fact that the stock actually stopped trading for a while means this panic is overblown. This was a prior GTC order that hit today.

alevin
07-08-2009, 03:48 AM
Bought more UNG today at $12.22. The fact that the stock actually stopped trading for a while means this panic is overblown. This was a prior GTC order that hit today.

Um, Bullitt? Could you explain that a little more? I don't get how a halt on trading on falling price means panic overdone? :confused: I may not be wet behind the ears these days, but still got a lot to learn. any help in that direction much appreciated. :wacko: :)

Bullitt
07-08-2009, 11:05 PM
The reason for the sell off yesterday was because Big Brother is threatening to squash the 'Speculators' in the commodity markets. The beauty of an ETF is it can issue shares whenever it wants to, which is why following volume in an ETF isn't quite as telling as most chartists believe. UNG has been issuing shares monthly as part of the whole rolling contracts over thing it has going on. Allegedly this is pinning the the price of UNG. The move in May was due to the ETF being delayed by two weeks in issuing more shares. I don't believe in any way the markets are run by supply and demand, but if an ETF can no longer issue shares after it's been doing it since inception, we could get a demand shock.

What's my holding period? If it was a trade, I would have sold out at 17 with a gain, but I'm looking at this thing moving higher towards winter time. Maybe a hurricane or two will hit. I hear we're in for a 'mild' winter and 'mild' hurricane season, so all the reason more for this to go higher given any surprises.


If there are more buyers than sellers (and interest has been strong), shares are likely to trade at a premium even if the price of (http://www.minyanville.com/articles/USO-UNG-wti/index/a/23440/from/yahoo)natural gas (http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10536941/1/nat-gas-etf-filling-up-with-hot-air.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA#) declines -- something the fundamentals and technicals would imply. http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10536941/1/nat-gas-etf-filling-up-with-hot-air.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

If I knew it was going this low, I wouldn't have started to buy as early as the mid 14's, but what can you do? I'm thinking UNG is currently finishing it's capitulation phase.

wv-girl
07-09-2009, 01:15 AM
The reason for the sell off yesterday was because Big Brother is threatening to squash the 'Speculators' in the commodity markets. The beauty of an ETF is it can issue shares whenever it wants to, which is why following volume in an ETF isn't quite as telling as most chartists believe. UNG has been issuing shares monthly as part of the whole rolling contracts over thing it has going on. Allegedly this is pinning the the price of UNG. The move in May was due to the ETF being delayed by two weeks in issuing more shares. I don't believe in any way the markets are run by supply and demand, but if an ETF can no longer issue shares after it's been doing it since inception, we could get a demand shock.

What's my holding period? If it was a trade, I would have sold out at 17 with a gain, but I'm looking at this thing moving higher towards winter time. Maybe a hurricane or two will hit. I hear we're in for a 'mild' winter and 'mild' hurricane season, so all the reason more for this to go higher given any surprises.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10536941/1/nat-gas-etf-filling-up-with-hot-air.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

If I knew it was going this low, I wouldn't have started to buy as early as the mid 14's, but what can you do? I'm thinking UNG is currently finishing it's capitulation phase.

Thanks for all the info you been giving for UNG. I have been waiting to buy some for a while. I was thinking of buying yesterday, but heard of the halt, so I waited till today. Bought a minor position at 12.15. Am prepared to buy a little more if it goes down.
Also, I have been watching USO. Should have gotten in today, but was super busy and couldn't watch too much. I should put in an order so if it should go a little lower I will get in. But futures tonight indicate a little bounce so we will see.
Again thanks for the input. I have a service I follow and they are saying the same things as you.
wv-girl

Bullitt
07-09-2009, 09:31 PM
Good luck WV Girl. Just don't buy all that USO at once, it's going to be a wild ride like UNG. If you're playing with UNG then you've already started at a lower price than I have at $12.15. Let's hope it doesn't go too much lower and at least keeps basing.

Once we hear the chart watchers say, "UNG appears to be almost at a bullish crossroads", or some rhetorical statement like such, I'll consider selling some shares.

wv-girl
07-10-2009, 02:28 AM
Good luck WV Girl. Just don't buy all that USO at once, it's going to be a wild ride like UNG. If you're playing with UNG then you've already started at a lower price than I have at $12.15. Let's hope it doesn't go too much lower and at least keeps basing.

Once we hear the chart watchers say, "UNG appears to be almost at a bullish crossroads", or some rhetorical statement like such, I'll consider selling some shares.
I agree. It seems the more people that get 'bearish' or 'bullish' then the market goes the other way.

I'm thinking that USO may spike a little and then head back down. It would make sense that big brother would want more people traveling this summer-hense slightly lower prices. I know it sure helped earlier this year.
:)

wv-girl
07-10-2009, 03:48 PM
Well, USO isn't cooperating. No spike. Still watching. UNG seems to be holding its own fairly well. Looking to buy more if it drops.
wv-girl

wv-girl
07-14-2009, 01:52 PM
Well, USO isn't cooperating. No spike. Still watching. UNG seems to be holding its own fairly well. Looking to buy more if it drops.
wv-girl
Well, bought more UNG at 12.00 yesterday and totally out at opening this am @ 12.43.

USO had an intraday low yesterday, and isn't looking back(yet). Still watching to go back below 32. Probably wishful thinking as a girl can dream.
wv-girl

etftalk
07-14-2009, 02:20 PM
Nice trade on UNG wv!

wv-girl
07-15-2009, 12:50 AM
Nice trade on UNG wv!
Thanks Tom. In hind sight, left some $ on the table, seems I got out too soon but hey, I am not complaining. Any profit is good. I am still fairly new to trading, compared to most members, but I am more than willing to learn from others and also share what I learn. The way I view it is -- all of us can only get better.
wv-girl

p.s USO is looking good. oops--up after hours. Seems like it is stuck in a range.

Show-me
07-22-2009, 11:19 AM
Very nice!

alevin
07-23-2009, 01:59 PM
Best most useful article I've seen yet about interplay between big picture natural gas prices and production! Enjoy!

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2009/0722.html



U.S. natural gas available for production “has jumped 58% in the past four years, driven by improved drilling techniques and the discovery of huge shale fields in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Pennsylvania, according to a report issued Thursday by the nonprofit Potential Gas Committee (PGC).”

The numbers currently kicked around are that something around 2,000 trillion cubic feet of gas are technically recoverable in the United States. At current production rates, this supply would last about 90 years.
Even if the U.S. economy recovers in the next year, the amount of gas discovered to date in gas shales will severely dampen any increase in gas price for some time.

Another complementary fact is that over 50% of natural gas consumed in the United States today is from wells drilled less than three years ago, and 25-30% of the gas produced today comes from wells drilled last year (Figure 2).

Hence it follows that if there are 50% fewer wells drilled this year (from the drop in rig activity), new production will decline about 35-40% by the end of the year, so there will be gas shortages. Those will in turn lead to higher North American prices, which in turn should lead to additional drilling.

Many prospects become economic at around the $6 MMBtu range. Among them are the Haynesville and Marcellus shales – and it's no large leap from there to see their tremendous gas production potential acting as a buffer to gas prices going much higher in the near term. the overhang of ready supply places a fairly firm cap on the price.
Just because something is “cheap” doesn’t mean it can’t stay cheap, regardless of historical ratios -- if there has been a fundamental shift in the supply/demand equation. Which is very much the case with North American natural gas.

Europe [OTH] is forced to rely on the Russians. There are companies looking to break the Russian grip by applying the same unconventional gas technologies that have so successfully built gas supplies in the U.S. -- technologies that are only just now being applied in Europe. Early investors could reap huge profits.

In short, the real opportunities are not found by simply “investing in energy” but rather by taking the time to understand the structural differences within the energy complex and cherry picking the special situations.


My ATN is a play on the Marcellus shales, they are both exploration and production. They've tracked oil prices lately. They also have oil, which buffers the fluctuations in ng price (I think). ONly issue I have at this point is they stopped paying dividends, so I might add somebody else that still pays dividends, to balance.

Bullitt
07-26-2009, 06:05 PM
Still holding onto my UNG with an average cost of 14.15 and my opinion hasn't changed. The chart is still a mess but at least we may have bounced back over the 12.50 support/resistance line. Again, this more of a play on the disparity between oil and gas than anything else. For a while when the price took off, there seemed to be a swing towards the bullish side of UNG, but since it's been hammered once again, we're back on the bear side. What will happen if we get a colder winter or more hurricanes than expected? I don't know, but there isn't much overhead resistance if it can put together a rally. I just can't believe that the folks who bought anywhere over 30 are still holding on.

etftalk
07-28-2009, 03:47 PM
Amazing action, particularly with a falling dollar. What's the opposite of a bubble?

alevin
07-29-2009, 01:44 AM
I reading some trader chatter yesterday, one suggested waiting til Labor Day to buy in. UNG-I'd like to make a little green back from my utility bills this winter. Maybe I'll go buy some utilities too, same reason, but haven't researched any to date.

Bullitt
08-21-2009, 03:47 PM
OK, I know I have an agenda as I'm long UNG here, but I can't help but to notice that gas is at 7 year lows (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-futures-inch-higher-as-asian-stocks-rebound-2009-08-20?siteid=yhoof).

etftalk
08-21-2009, 05:04 PM
The only was nat gas goes higher is if I sell my UNG. I can be bribed. :D

etftalk
08-21-2009, 06:42 PM
By the way, UNG hit my mental stop and I am frozen like a deer in headlights hating to sell a possible low. With oil rallying and the dollar floundering, it seems like a poor decision to sell here.

Bullitt
08-24-2009, 10:28 PM
That's just it, when will people begin to capitulate out of Nat Gas? I haven't heard one positive thing about this fund in the past 2 months. I'm still in it, but I was also planning on holding this until mid winter when gas prices should hit their peak. My only qualm is that it's trading to around a 13% premium to NAV.

UNG does appear to have a bid under it lately.

alevin
08-25-2009, 02:46 PM
guys, UNG will not be issuing new shares for the foreseeable future, so it's begun to behave like a closed-end fund instead of an ETF. People don't want to buy at a premium. study up on how closed-ends work, it may help.

Bullitt
08-27-2009, 11:05 PM
Closed end funds can trade a premium or discount for very long periods of time. One CEF I bought at a 16% discount around February. It's discount now is 11% but I've made 25% off the purchase. At this point, I'll wait until October for the another 30% of that holding to become a LT Cap gain. So unless things get bad fast, I can hold on.

UNG is the 17th largest ETF holding amongst Hedge Funds? As of the latest Hedge Fund data, which would be 6/30/09, 34 have ownership in UNG with $121 Million Long and $98 Million short.

Also, the second biggest holding, SPY, was $4,004 Million Long vs. $21,666 million short (6/30/09). Sounds like a crowded trade seeing that the SPY is up 11% as of today's close since 7/1/09.

USO is up there too, but it's about a 1:4 long/short. I'm sure there's a play on short oil, long gas with these ETF's. Commodity ETF's aren't being bought only by people like us who are clueless.

As for UNG, I think I heard before that Nat Gas prices are going to stay low for a long time to come. I also heard we're in for a cold winter. I remember some of the calls for Oil to stay below $55 a barrel earlier in the year. Yep, kick 'em when they're down; the media is good at that. We've still got folks looking for an entry point in the general stock market because of the media.

Source: GS Hedge Fund Trend Monitor (http://www.scribd.com/doc/19139335/Goldman-Sachs-Hedge-Fund-Monitor)

alevin
09-10-2009, 01:41 PM
After reading the following article on nat. gas production dynamics longterm, this morning, I'm becoming re-interested in natural gas plays. Not ready to dive back in yet, but I'll be watching and doing some more research in that sector. Will probably go for single stocks again and leave UNG alone. With its 20% premium, I can wait.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2009/0909.html

In the meantime, glad I'm going for heat pump install in my home this fall, will offset any stiff price increases in nat gas for my living room fireplace in coming years.

Show-me
09-12-2009, 10:54 AM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/161011-rough-times-ahead-for-natural-gas

Bullitt
09-17-2009, 12:21 AM
UNG's premium continues to contract while the bears continue to be bearish. Gas continues to rise as traders factor in the fact that this fund will need to purchase gas contracts in order to bring the fund to NAV. Another disinformation headline.


In a filing Friday, managers of the United States Natural Gas ETF announced that the fund would resume the creation of new shares, a move that could send the fund tumbling more than 16%. The regulatory notice acknowledges that "the resumption of creation activity, even on a limited basis, could reduce or remove any premium" in the fund's price. As of Friday, UNG was trading at a 16.12% premium to its NAV. While creation will not resume until Sept. 28, this announcement will have an immediate impact on UNG's price on Monday, Sept. 14.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10597817/1/dion-investor-alert--ung-shares-to-slide.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI

etftalk
11-09-2009, 03:22 PM
Natural gas soaring, up 41% since early July. The Nat Gas ETF UNG is down 37% during that same period. :eek:

Anyone??

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/110909b.gif

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/110909a.gif

Bullitt
11-09-2009, 04:06 PM
I know. It's aggravating. Same goes for any fund that tracks a futures market- DBA, USO, UGA.... First the 2x Funds, then the 3x Funds, and now the Commodity Funds are going bust.

Bullitt
12-13-2009, 06:57 PM
Is UNG getting ready to actually start an upleg? What a disaster this fund has been.

161

XL-entLady
12-14-2009, 03:54 AM
That's not kidding. I was a sorry owner for a while last summer when I thought it couldn't go any lower. I thought wrong. :rolleyes:

Lady