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etftalk
03-09-2009, 02:55 AM
Good luck Corepuncher!

XL-entLady
03-09-2009, 03:07 AM
Welcome, CP! This neighborhood just keeps getting better and better! :bigsmile:

Lady

JTH
03-09-2009, 03:32 AM
Good to see you've arrived, now kick some azz... :)

Gumby
03-09-2009, 04:53 PM
Welcome CP
Bring on the good trades :)

Corepuncher
03-13-2009, 09:04 PM
Hey all! I just got my thinkorswim account opened. Am only starting with the minimal amount, but, will have some TSP funds diverted into a ROTH soon as well.

I made my first ever trade today, bought GLD at 91.20. I did a OCO Bracket. I have a sell stop order at 97.99 and a stop out sell order at 87.47. I call it the "animal trap." I'm going to rip loose pretty soon and analyze a bunch of charts, then, set a bunch more "traps" and hopefully I'll catch something.

I randomly started with GLD. We are basically in an uptrend...I saw we bounced off lows today, and decided to buy. If we can break above 93, I think we'll get that 98-100 or 1000 dollar gold. Gold has two things going for it...fear trade and inflation. If we break that 87.47 low from 3/10, I'm out, and the trade will likely break down.

350Z
03-13-2009, 09:09 PM
Hey CP!

Don't forget to recruit steveg and the rest of your gang too.:bigsmile:

etftalk
03-13-2009, 10:24 PM
I randomly started with GLD. We are basically in an uptrend...I saw we bounced off lows today, and decided to buy. If we can break above 93, I think we'll get that 98-100 or 1000 dollar gold. Gold has two things going for it...fear trade and inflation. If we break that 87.47 low from 3/10, I'm out, and the trade will likely break down.
I totally agree on the gold trade. A few of us here have been doing the silver thing as well.

Corepuncher
03-16-2009, 03:14 PM
Wondering when to buy FAZ. Currently 36.59. All time low 32.57.

JTH
03-16-2009, 03:32 PM
Wondering when to buy FAZ. Currently 36.59. All time low 32.57.

It's sort of tough to track an ETF without a substancial history to base the lows on. :suspicious:

Corepuncher
03-16-2009, 03:40 PM
I think I might buy FAZ once the S&P reached 780-800. In fact, probably buy some SDS there as well. I don't like how the NASDAQ is down...all of a sudden, the "leader" is not.

XL-entLady
03-16-2009, 04:17 PM
I think I might buy FAZ ....
I've got some I'll sell you. Buy high, sell low, that's my motto! :rolleyes: :toung:

Lady

Corepuncher
03-18-2009, 04:39 PM
My FAZ is getting decimated. FAZ just made a new all time low. I am wanting to hold it and recover. I now wish I had not thrown 50% of my money in FAZ! Ouch. I will try to hold it and hope for a recovery...I don't see why financials are leading us right now...surely it will turn back around? I need 41.30 just to get back to even.

JTH
03-18-2009, 05:13 PM
AIG is up again over 35% :wacko:

For some reason, the market is drunk on stupidity. Sooner or later it will sober up. try not to feel too bad, there's always some poor schmuck like me who is worse off than you.

JTH is 100% FAZ :)

Bullitt
03-18-2009, 06:50 PM
I will try to hold it and hope for a recovery...I don't see why financials are leading us right now...surely it will turn back around? I need 41.30 just to get back to even.

I hate to see people lose money, but FAZ is not the kind of ETF I'd want to buy and hold. Double bottom breakdown today with no support below. I don't know if it's bullish or bearish, but stops in the leveraged bear funds are getting blown out left and right today.

Beware the gold trade, it's not for the faint of heart.

JTH
03-18-2009, 07:45 PM
I hate to see people lose money, but FAZ is not the kind of ETF I'd want to buy and hold.

I'd rather use it to catch a quick trend during a day trade. Too bad I didn't follow my own advice. :rolleyes:

Corepuncher
03-18-2009, 08:05 PM
I don't know whether to hold on to faz,sds, and dug or to wait and hope they go back up. Geesh...ouch....I have taken a huge hit in 2 days.....my frist 2 days of trading.

My account is down 21%. Ouch. Any advice? I feel we'll go down eventually...not sure if I should double down on anything or not.

JTH
03-18-2009, 08:12 PM
I don't know whether to hold on to faz,sds, and dug or to wait and hope they go back up. Geesh...ouch....I have taken a huge hit in 2 days.....my frist 2 days of trading.

My account is down 21%. Ouch. Any advice? I feel we'll go down eventually...not sure if I should double down on anything or not.

If one of your friends came up to you and asked you to look at this holding, what would you tell them?

XL-entLady
03-18-2009, 08:14 PM
I don't know whether to hold on to faz,sds, and dug or to wait and hope they go back up. Geesh...ouch....I have taken a huge hit in 2 days.....my frist 2 days of trading.

My account is down 21%. Ouch. Any advice? I feel we'll go down eventually...not sure if I should double down on anything or not.
Do you have the capability of doing a conditional buy order? If x happens then buy 10 shares of y? I'm starting to wonder if we should be using the $BKX and conditional orders.

Has anyone tried this one?

Lady

Bullitt
03-18-2009, 08:41 PM
CP, you're a pretty sharp guy with the technical analysis and I think you should stick to trading the major ETF's like you trade the TSP Funds.

I agree with you that the banks should be down to zero and FAZ should be flying off the charts, but the boys don't care what we think. I'm not a fan of stops, but when trading those 3x ETF's, you really have to use them because once they get going sometimes, it's curtains.

I have mixed emotions on the 3x and 2x funds, they can be a boon, but at the same time, always a double edged sword. (I'm not telling you what to do, but just trying to help you out here.)

Example: If you go 3x short with FAZ, then you should be hedging that with something like SPY. I know it's fun when the whole entire market crumbles and SDS benefits along with FAZ, but let's say the market rallies without financials, then you're really making out. Or if the trade goes against you, you'll always have some kind of cushion.

As for DUG: I would be very, very careful shorting any commodity right now. IBD's leaders the past few weeks have been commodities right now, they are the only sector showing relative strength over time.

Rod
03-18-2009, 08:56 PM
Do you have the capability of doing a conditional buy order? If x happens then buy 10 shares of y? I'm starting to wonder if we should be using the $BKX and conditional orders.

Has anyone tried this one?

Lady

I've seen that w/ ST, but haven't tried it yet.

Corepuncher
03-21-2009, 01:50 AM
Well well, last two days have made me feel better :-)

My DUG is almost up to even, SDS is profitable, and FAZ is on the brink of breaking upward again. Still, I would like to get out of FAZ, at least scale out as it approaches my buy price of 41.30. Luckily, DUG is inverse to the S&P basically, since it isn't exactly "oil".

Agree, commodities will be a place to be. Going to enjoy the weekend. May use the 2X etf's instead of this CRAZY FAZ! Who knows, maybe FAZ will double from here!

Corepuncher
03-23-2009, 07:32 PM
I may be dumb, but I just triple-downed my FAZ at 23.77. I will hold it until there is another financial mess that arises.

Gumby
03-23-2009, 07:41 PM
I may be dumb, but I just triple-downed my FAZ at 23.77. I will hold it until there is another financial mess that arises.

I am beginning to think there is no end to the amount of money the treasury can print and give to the banks. The USA is screwed:sick:
Our dollars are going to be worth next to nothing.:eek:

Looks like we have a massive short squeeze going on.

Gumby
03-23-2009, 07:56 PM
Call me nuts....FAZ @$20.00

350Z
03-23-2009, 08:02 PM
I may be dumb, but I just triple-downed my FAZ at 23.77. I will hold it until there is another financial mess that arises.

Same here. Gonna hold it for a while. Picked up some more at 19.28.

JTH
03-23-2009, 08:22 PM
FAS with a 41.29% Gain for the day. Yea that's right, one day. That's the power of 3X baby. Maybe next time I'll be on the right side of that trade.

But here's the kicker, FAS still didn't reach last week's highs.

And if you wanna get kicked some more, out of 194 financial stocks, not one closed in the red, no not one. :rolleyes: Well heck, I guess all our problems have been solved... :toung:

Corepuncher
03-25-2009, 03:10 PM
I got out my FAZ at a huge loss...40% of my entire account balance.

Luckily, I only had 4K in there to begin with...but still it SUCKS!

I went long FAS...I think it has an excellent potential for doubling, at least, next few weeks. We have mark to market rules likely being relaxed...April 2nd I think? Anyway, I'll see where FAS brings me over the next couple weeks.

JTH
03-25-2009, 03:22 PM
but still it SUCKS!

I'm sorry to hear about the lose. This whole FAZ fiasco has taught me some valuable (costly) lessons. Probably the most important one, is for me to forget about being wrong or right, and to reconize a trend reversal quicker by going with the charts and not with what I want the charts to say.

Still down 61% :eek: on FAZ

Gumby
03-25-2009, 03:29 PM
I'm sorry to hear about the lose. This whole FAZ fiasco has taught me some valuable (costly) lessons. Probably the most important one, is for me to forget about being wrong or right, and to reconize a trend reversal quicker by going with the charts and not with what I want the charts to say.

Still down 61% :eek: on FAZ


Ouch! I am down about that much also.

XL-entLady
03-25-2009, 05:30 PM
My condolences and commiserations with you all regarding our FAZ. A good lesson to all of us that the flavor of the day might give us a stomach ache. :sick:

Ms. Down $1k+
aka Lady

Gumby
03-25-2009, 06:43 PM
My condolences and commiserations with you all regarding our FAZ. A good lesson to all of us that the flavor of the day might give us a stomach ache. :sick:

Ms. Down $1k+
aka Lady

If I was down only $1K...that would make my day:bigsmile:.....so FAS take a break and pass the ball to FAZ.
BHO's stimulus has stimulated me in the wrong way.

Lady, you did well getting out when you did. 20/20 hindsight, I should have set a stop and stuck to it. Oh well.

Corepuncher
03-30-2009, 04:59 PM
Think we might drift down all day...will look at doubling down on FAS near 5.00 or lower if we continue down today.

Corepuncher
03-31-2009, 04:15 AM
Think we might drift down all day...will look at doubling down on FAS near 5.00 or lower if we continue down today.

Bought more FAS on margin at 5.08. Will buy more if we can get a dip tomorrow, think 4.60 is floor. Upside near term 7-8. Max upside 10-12 if they suspend mark to market.

One of my friends just moved 35% of his 401K to BAC stock, and bought 1000 shares of FAS as well. He works for MER/BAC, so maybe biased....but KEN LEWIS will be on TV thursday as well....always good for a pop!

alevin
03-31-2009, 04:34 AM
Guess I'll take a look at FAS in the am, got cash left on the table. I'm looking short/Intermediate term at strengthening $ hurting gold and PM ETFs, going to lighten up on my holdings, but not bail entirely. It's my heaviest position at this point. Aroon and Aroon oscillator both indicate gold trend will continue down for a bit.

Corepuncher
04-01-2009, 03:30 AM
Just learning this option stuff, it is pretty darn cool!

I bought a few FAS April 6 calls for 0.80. Looking to sell at 7.00 for a 100% profit in just a few days...may keep some looking for 8, which would be about a 200% profit!

Whats even more nuts, is I'm doing it all on margin! Talk about leverage! Triple long financial ETF Calls bought on margin, lol! And...the margin is against my FAS share equity, 100% of my portfolio! LOL!

Here is my take...I'm looking for some short covering Wed into early Thur...you would be nuts NOT to cover your shorts. Surely anyone in FAZ right now is shaking a bit...it's been up 15-30 % over the last few days...and now there is a potential game changing vote on Thur that could drive FAZ below that 18 support.

Anyway, short covering should get us back into the 6's, and maybe a quick parabolic move to 7 again, at which time I'll take profits. Will also sell my calls at that level, and most of my fas shares. Will keep 30% of my FAS shares in tact for a unlikely mark to market suspension and subsequent HUGE FAS move of 100% or more...and a target of 10-11ish.

Corepuncher
04-02-2009, 08:28 PM
Covered all FAS positions today. Made 20% just today...and 60% over the last 4 days. I in turn loaded up on FAZ and SDS late today (when will I EVER learn!).

I have almost made up for riding FAZ down from 41 to 20. Whew!

JTH
04-02-2009, 08:53 PM
Covered all FAS positions today. Made 20% just today...and 60% over the last 4 days. I in turn loaded up on FAZ and SDS late today (when will I EVER learn!).

I have almost made up for riding FAZ down from 41 to 20. Whew!\

CP I'm glad to hear you're making a recovery from your FAZ. This baby has tested my testicular fortitude :rolleyes:

Corepuncher
04-03-2009, 09:11 PM
Went all in FAZ today. Bought 3 times as it went down last buy 15.59. It would SEEM like a low price anyway...

I figure at the very least, the broader market will top out soon...and retrace. If we just went back to 800, that would be a 5% move down, and FAZ would likely rise > 15% back to near 18, which was that consolidation range previously.

And...all takes is one bad piece of news to get the shorts back into financials. I'll try to hold FAZ until I get a good profit. May become difficult if we rally too much more, as I could risk a margin call since I am margined. Come on FAZ!!!!

Uptrend
04-04-2009, 06:53 AM
Good going corepuncher! I also bought FAZ today near the open and got hit fairly hard, but holding on. However, I expect a rebound soon. Take a peek at my reasons over in technical analysis.

Corepuncher
04-04-2009, 11:35 PM
My average FAZ buy price is 16.83.

I was looking at May and July 17.5 and 20 calls. WOW! I can write a May 17.5 call for about 4 bucks! And a JULY 17.5 for almost 6 bucks! Crazy! And that is from a starting price of 15.60 (friday close).

Look, I can literally write calls against my FAZ for a JULY strike of 17.5. I will make 600 bucks per call, AND, gain on my shares from 16.83 up to 17.5 ! Amazingly, if I do this, it will totally recharge my account to a level higher than I started with. That is CRAZY given that I was down 56% a few days ago. If I do this, I wil literally be UP like 20% !!!!!!!!!!!!

I do believe FAZ will start going back up. My target levels are:

16.6, 18ish, 22.48, 24, 25, 35, 45.

I believe we will almost CERTAINLY see 18 again. If we hit 18 next week, I think those July 17.50 calls could sell for 7.50!

Now, JPM and C report just 2 days before April options expiration. BAC Monday after. take that into consideration if you are doing April.

Corepuncher
04-09-2009, 03:39 AM
well, I went on vacation and came back to see my calls sold with their limit orders.

I had 1 order to sell a May 20 FAZ call if it hit 4.10, and another order to sell 2 May 30 FAZ calls if FAZ hit 18.00....it hit 18 and it went through. Made an instant 830 bucks! whoohoo.

Looking to buy more FAZ on any weakness.

Corepuncher
04-10-2009, 12:13 PM
well, I went on vacation and came back to see my calls sold with their limit orders.

I had 1 order to sell a May 20 FAZ call if it hit 4.10, and another order to sell 2 May 30 FAZ calls if FAZ hit 18.00....it hit 18 and it went through. Made an instant 830 bucks! whoohoo.

Looking to buy more FAZ on any weakness.

Well, I'm out of money and actually had to find 500 bucks to add to my account because it went under the min balance! Ouch.

That 830 dollars I made by selling 3 FAZ calls sure was timely...it helped bring my average buy price from 16.83 down to 14.04. Still, that is like 35+% up from here just to break even! I guess I'll just wait now. I may buy my calls back for 235 bucks (last print) and turn around and sell July or October calls for a higher premium.

My last prediction of FAZ getting back up to 18's came true. Now, I'm looking to 15 as the next big resistance level. Of course, all it takes is one bad apple in financials to rock the boat.

I feel like Thur was a capitulation day for FAZ. Look at the volume RELATIVE to the previous volume bars:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?faz

HUGE spike in VOLUME, 55% higher than any previous bar!

NOW, look at XLF and FAS:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xlf
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fas

Notice how, while decent volume, it was nowhere close to making a new high, let alone exceeding it by 55%! It is for that reason that I hope (and pray!) that FAZ has bottomed. I wouldn't mind seeing a slight dip in FAZ in the pre hours or open on Monday, followed by a reversal. Perhaps we will stabilize here in the 11-14 range before something comes along to break us out. I am not giving up hope yet!

Corepuncher
04-14-2009, 04:04 AM
Taking an epic beating on FAZ. Had to deposit more money in my account just to keep it above the minimum required. :wacko:

I don't want to sell FAZ right now. Today's volume was even greater than on Thursday...although the stock moved much less down. If you took that to the extreme, and you had huge volume and the stock ends flat, that is a pretty good indication of a balance and possibly a floor. I think we are close to a floor in FAZ, but what do i know...I"m broke.

Going to add the required funds to my account and hope FAZ can hold here. I WOULD sell some longer out calls, but it locks up my shares and I won't get the money for a long time.

Corepuncher
04-15-2009, 10:12 AM
Sold some FAZ at 11.31 and planning on buying it back on a dip.

Remember...the absolute numbers don't mean anything. Look at the past FAZ chart. Look at it in terms of multiples off the bottom.

For example, FAZ opened at 60 and hit 201 during the Nov. panic. That is a 235% increase.

FAZ went from 32.5 to 88.67 in January...a 172% increase.

Then, the March panic...FAZ went from 37.8 to 115....a 204% increase.

Now, we hit a bottom around 9. Lets just say we have a 235% increase to match the November panic.. That would be a move from 9 to 30.

So, ASSUMING 9 or so is the low this time around, even in a big panic selloff, the most you might expect is 30 out of FAZ. Say we go down to 7 before we go up hard again...the target is now lowered to 23.45.

Depressing if you bought high and held. Triple leveraged ETF's will always lose value over time, so be careful. Learned the hard way, now I know.

Corepuncher
05-01-2009, 02:03 AM
Bought FAZ this morning at 8.09 and sold at close for 8.30. Wow, I actually did a good trade!

Also sold a few May 7.5 puts for 1.00 this morning when FAZ was near it's low. Hoping the market is near a top, and thus they will expire.

Here is FAZ vs. the XLF. Note the ranges they are in. A conservative downside target of 10.40 on XLF gives a value of 9.44 on FAZ for a selling point, although it may be more like 9.25-9.50. I think 10-11 could occur again as well if the market retraces to lower 800s and XLF in mid 9's.

http://www.corepuncher.com/misc/fas.jpg