Market Talk May 2009

[etftalk]

It's interesting that bonds, gold, silver, AND stocks are up.

[XL-entLady]

Yes, very schizophrenic market. Hope it's not psychotic too! :toung:

Lady

[JTH]

Being a realist has not made me any money since March 666. Watching this market, sometimes I believe I'm the only one who thinks we are trading short-term success for long term disaster.

We are living in three different Americas. On the left is the "yes we can" crowd supported by the ever-buying Feds who are pumping this market with false hope.

In the middle is Joe Public who doesn't realize he'll lose his job when his employer gets taxed into oblivion.

On the right is the "Ron Paul" crowd. That would be me and I happen to believe Metals are telling the real story here.

[etftalk]

On the right is the "Ron Paul" crowd. That would be me and I happen to believe Metals are telling the real story here.
Which action in the metals do you mean: The strong rally off the 2005 lows, the inability to break 1000 and pullback to 700, etc.?

I am assuming you mean buy metals to protect yourself against the inevitable inflation and possibly worse, but why the heck has gold stalled at 1000 for the last year? I guess it could be basing and getting ready for the next leg up. That seems likely.

[XL-entLady]

And has anyone been paying attention to the move that CUT (trees) has started to make?!

Lady

[JTH]

I am assuming you mean buy metals to protect yourself against the inevitable inflation and possibly worse, but why the heck has gold stalled at 1000 for the last year? I guess it could be basing and getting ready for the next leg up. That seems likely.

Tom, when it comes to these markets you've probably forgotten more than I'll ever learn. I can't speak to Gold @ 1,000 except to say that owning a dime sized piece of gold for over 100 bucks does not seem like much of a value to me.

Looking at March 666, I think precious metals have held up rather well when you look at how far the S&P 500 has climbed. For all I know, this may be the last time we see prices this low. :(

As for industrial metals I have to ask myself who is ramping up production? What will happen when/if China decides they have enough inventory of copper?

Like that guy on CNBC says. You want to own things that hurt when you drop them on your foot... :toung:

Here are some Price performance charts with the S&P 500, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, & Platinum. I'm trying to build a base in metals for the long haul. :rolleyes:

March 666 chart
137

Year-To-Date chart
138

10-Year Chart (from this time frame, collecting aluminum cans yielded better results than buying stocks . :toung:
139

[JTH]

Here are some Price performance charts with the S&P 500, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, & Platinum.

Just to be fair, because different time frames yield different results, here is a 20 year chart that puts the S&P 500 in the number 2 spot.

140

[JTH]

March 23rd 2009 http://www.etftalk.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2013&postcount=49

I yield to the greatness of the "Guy" who called 900... and here is the video http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1063907914&play=1

[alevin]

And has anyone been paying attention to the move that CUT (trees) has started to make?!

Lady
Wow! Another commod opp I've been overlooking! And I'm in the biZness of paying attention to that one too! From the sidelines anyway. Hmm. cellulosic biofuels anyone? Maybe it's to do with remodeling. Hmm. will have to do some research.

As for PM's, other sites I'm reading have been amazed that PMs have held their ground as well as they have in the face of the equity advance, indicating what JTH is inclined to believe, me too-I think oil/PM market is forecasting not 6 months from now but next 12-months to boot. GLD is holding up above Ichimoku cloud so far also, since I bought, how much longer that will go on, I don't know, just trying to get back to where I started before I sell and wait for a better buy-in later in the year.

Commod strength-why I am hanging onto my DBC even tho it's just been meandering in a narrow trading range since I bought-I think its basing-for a move down or a move up again, guess will find out. Since its' at the low end of last year's ramp and drop already, I'm guessing next major direction is up again, just not yet. Noticed that POT and MOS went up today on strength. Hmm.

[Bullitt]

It's interesting that bonds, gold, silver, AND stocks are up.

Little something for everyone.

[JTH]

Here are some Fib levels with a negative trend line thrown in. Anyone care to guess what happens next? :toung:

147

[JTH]

Anyone like sugar in their coffee?

Here is my EOTWAWKI play. Higher taxes and inflation means we have to work more to make the same amount. The more we work, the more tired we become. The more tired we are the more coffee we drink.

Now if I can only find some creamer...

148

149

[XL-entLady]

EOTWAWKI?? :confused: :embarrest:

[JTH]

EOTWAWKI?? :confused: :embarrest:

End of the world as we know it :eek:

[XL-entLady]

EOTWAWKI?? :confused:


End of the world as we know it :eek:
Oh! :bigsmile:

For me, a big raise in coffee prices would qualify. Love that gourmet dark roast! :nuts:

Lady

[JTH]

Can history repeat itself ???

150

[XL-entLady]

Can history repeat itself ???


You know that history rhymes. I think that precious metals will start to move more strongly and I think the next big bubble will be commodities. But as to timing ....? My crystal ball is still in the shop for repairs. :bigsmile:

We'll just have to do what you're so good at, J, and that is to watch the charts!:)

Lady

[alevin]

The alternate theory I've read over the weekend is that PMs hold their ground while the $ takes a dive. Seriously. Might have been Denninger that put that forward as more probable, I haven't spent much time browsing outside his sites this weekend. Nonetheless, commodities are where my head is at, there and producers thereof. Basic materials.

I found a really awesome site tonight, I gotta share. Heatmaps for both stocks and ETF using different criteria, stock screener (the best stock screener I've found yet for the criteria I've been using for fundamental analysis). It zeroed me in on one single stock to buy tonight using my value criteria. guess what? a commodity producer stock, and China at that!

the site is http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=etf. If it stops being free, I'll cry and dig in my pocket.

[XL-entLady]

I'm looking at your new site now, Allie. Looks like it will take a while to explore and be able to learn everything this site can tell me. GREAT information. Thanks for the tip! :)

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Here's this week's ETF Rewind chart. It was just posted this morning (Monday). Enjoy!

ETF Rewind - Week 19 (05/08/09) (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/05/etf-rewind-week-19-050809.html)

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SgemnVCrnSI/AAAAAAAACGY/oVxAw5MT34o/s400/Week_19_Table.png (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SgemnVCrnSI/AAAAAAAACGY/oVxAw5MT34o/s1600-h/Week_19_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))
Last week the S&P500 put in another whopping +5.8% gain. By the same token, treasury yields continued to rise, potentially narrowing the gap in near-term return expectations among the asset classes -- something to think about, anyhow. Nevertheless, just as we now see intermediate overbought indications within equities in the Rewind, other models suggest that this atypical upward run should continue to be treated with respect.
Week Twenty of 2009 (is that possible!) features the following earnings and economic calendar:


Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200920.html)
Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20090511.html)


http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/


Lady

[XL-entLady]

Dave Fry's charts and commentary from 5/13/09:

Thursday Outlook: The News Fails to Support the Rally

by: David Fry

May 13, 2009



Retail sales and foreclosure filings were, ahem, “worse than expected”. Markets have been looking toppy and moving around on light volume as indicated in previous postings. But dip buyers have been persistent even when the news was bad but spun as “better than expected”. Not so today.

Breadth was decidedly negative but volume remains modest.

click to enlarge
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/5/14/saupload_image004_thumb1.jpg (http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/5/14/saupload_image004.jpg)



http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/5/14/saupload_image006.jpg


http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/5/14/saupload_image018.jpg






http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/5/14/saupload_image020.jpg



[...MORE]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/111109-thursday-outlook-the-news-fails-to-support-the-rally

Lady

[XL-entLady]

ETF Rewind - Week 20 (05/15/09) (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/05/etf-rewind-week-20-051509.html)

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Sg8K52Vp47I/AAAAAAAACJA/Egn0eIJNlRk/s400/Week_20_Table.png (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Sg8K52Vp47I/AAAAAAAACJA/Egn0eIJNlRk/s1600-h/Week_20_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))

The S&P500 (SPY) finally made a more significant dent into its historic rebound, down -4.6% on the week. However, Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (IYR) were down more severely, about -11% each. Consumer Staples (XLP), Technology (XLK) and Healthcare (XLV) were relatively spared for having previously slowed their rate of incline, each down less than -2.0%.


Week Twenty-One of 2009 features a significantly lighter earnings and economic calendar, including Housing data and the April FOMC minutes release:


Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200921.html)
Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20090518.html)

Among the tracked ETFs, both Consumer Discretionarys (XLY) and Utilities (XLU) look short-term oversold, whereas Precious Metals (DBP) is now technically overbought by some measures. While the short-term trend has been interrupted and there is much fretting over the future of this rally, we thus far remain above critical support levels, and, while I'm net bearish on next week -- with all the money managers claiming to be on the lookout for re-entry points -- it seems early to be calling it officially down for the count. Enjoy Your Weekend!


http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/


Lady

[XL-entLady]

ETF Rewind - Week 21 (05/22/09) (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/05/etf-rewind-week-21-052209.html)

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Shg2rMBvOiI/AAAAAAAACKg/tQBLG1pNurc/s400/Week_21_Table.png (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/Shg2rMBvOiI/AAAAAAAACKg/tQBLG1pNurc/s1600-h/Week_21_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))

"Last week's diminutive S&P500 (SPY) returns, up +0.3%, belied the significant recovery attempt and failure of the majors, putting in lower May highs across the board. The real gainers were International (EFA +5.2%) and Emerging Market (EEM +5.6%) stocks, boosted by higher Commodities (DBC +5.0%) and a weakend US Dollar (UUP -3.6%). In contrast, long-term Treasuries (TLT) fell rather hard, down about -4.6%.
Week Twenty-Two of 2009 features the following busy earnings and economic calendar, including Preliminary GDP on Friday:


Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200922.html)
Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20090526.html)

For now, it's good to see sectors and asset classes begin to diverge in performance rather than all trading as one. While our economic woes are far from over and the outlook remains cloudy, at least investors are able to choose their battles."

http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady

[XL-entLady]

One last ETF Rewind for May:

ETF Rewind - Week 22 (05/29/09) (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/05/etf-rewind-week-22-052909.html)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SiF8_QLXl5I/AAAAAAAACMU/NGjC06ISrag/s400/Week_22_Table.png (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SiF8_QLXl5I/AAAAAAAACMU/NGjC06ISrag/s1600-h/Week_22_Table.png)(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2008/09/weekly-rewind-retool.html))

"It was another choppy but positive week for equities with the S&P500 (SPY) gaining an impressive +3.9% during the holiday-shortened week. This move put the index well above its simple 10-month moving average for the first time in nearly a year (although it remains just slightly below its 200-day).
In fact, gains were posted across all asset classes, with only the US Dollar showing mild weakness (UUP -0.8%). Note, however, how the reflation trade has nearly all commodities and correlated emerging market ETFs, such as DBC and EEM, looking very short-term overbought under the Price Index columns.
Week Twenty-Three of 2009 features another busy earnings and economic calendar, including the important Friday Jobs report:


Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200923.html)
Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20090601.html)

Volume was very light during most of May, and it is easy to imagine a scenario where institutional money now begins to reenter equities after price having consolidated through time alongside all of the major indices having moved above -- or nearly above -- that magic 200-day (http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/03/trading-200-day-linkfest.html) line in the sand.
However, that is merely the technician's perspective. Last week's sector leadership was less than inspiring, equities are slightly short-term overbought, the economy remains off-track, and bonds could start competing with equities at current (rising) rate levels. The light volume contributed without a doubt, but it is really no wonder we witnessed such repeated sharp, fast breaks last week given these vastly opposed perspectives!"

http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady