The Dollar

[etftalk]

Does the downtrend continue, or do we see a break?

http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/090109.gif

[Bullitt]

I can see a temporary break of the downtrend to the upside depending on how the market reacts and follows thru to the ECB tomorrow. Otherwise, the trend remains down.

I'm sure Frixx is doing his homework right now and tweaking his systems for it.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading_reports/trading_news_reports/EUR_USD__Trading_the_European_Central_125190905735 7.html

[Bullitt]

Maybe Frixx can shed some light here.

When do we look to short FXE (EURO)? Is this breakout for real?

[Bullitt]

I've been waiting for a dollar rally for at least a month now, but those dollar bull ETF's and Currency ETF's aren't worth the taxes or risk/reward IMO. If I were to buy the UUP today, I'd have to do it with leverage to make it worth my effort and with only 15-20% max upside that I see.

Hey anyone else see that volume spike this week in UUP?

Jim Rogers is sounding like it may be time for him to dabble into those US Dollar bull funds or the March'10 DXY.


“The dollar is overdue for a rally. Everybody in the world is pessimistic on it, including me,” Rogers told Bloomberg. http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/jim_rogers_dollar_rally/2009/10/28/278477.html

[alevin]

I've been waiting for a dollar rally for at least a month now, but those dollar bull ETF's and Currency ETF's aren't worth the taxes or risk/reward IMO. If I were to buy the UUP today, I'd have to do it with leverage to make it worth my effort and with only 15-20% max upside that I see.

Bullitt, I've been watching both UDN and UUP, but haven't dabbled. Could you explain the tax consequences with currency ETFs a little more? I started a new tax implications thread for commodity/PM ETFs this morning in the Trading section.

[frixxxx]

Haven't been allowed to discuss My moves, but $ staying weak.:suspicious:

[etftalk]

Not allowed?

[Bullitt]

One thing I don't like about UUP is the risk/reward. UUP could go up 7-10% if a short squeeze were to hit, and I figure that to be a max. That would also mean having to use leverage to make the trade worth it. Who besides the insiders and brokers really know the ins and outs of some of these nutty ETF's?

For example, I've been hammered in UNG and had I known this contango thing would have made such a difference, I wouldn't have bothered with it.

Anyways, I posted in the tax thread you started regarding currency ETF's. No LT Cap gains and ST gains get hit pretty hard.

If anything, I'd invest in these kind of funds only in a Roth IRA. Hope this helps.