Scribbler

"To the victor belong the spoils." - Senator William Marcy

How stupid some small banker aspiring to be a bigger banker must be feeling right now. He lended with prudence, and avoided the call of short term profits. He was unable to accrue large bonuses do to the inflated performance. But now, the worm has turned -- and he is the victor, and to him belong the spoils.

But now we are changing the rules, allowing the losers to claim rights previously unimaginable. The small...

I know that usually what I write is rather bearish and sort of pessimistic. There is a natural tendency to become married to a view of the market, and changing from that view tends to be difficult. In fact, usually at the point someone is most bearish and most convinced that the market is going down is the place where it reverses.

Knowing this, it is important not to become married to either a bullish or bearish perspective. To me, the key to the switch is incoming data. Let the data...

This morning there is more news that major corporations are going to lay more people off -- Caterpillar at 20K, Sprint at 8K, and Home Depot at 7K. The calendar flips to another Monday and 15,000 will soon find themselves out of a job.

For all the hubbub about the stimulus package and the great effect it will have on jump starting the economy (because the economy is like a car, right?), it is noteworthy that 2 of the firms, CAT and HD were likely to be benefactors of a construction...

I have mentioned before that I believe that we are entering into a deflationary environment.

As credit continues to tighten at lending institutions, eventually a more damaging economic consequence will occur -- a decline in the desirability for consumers to take on debt. This severely curtails the ability to manage (i.e. expand) money supply.

It is the only potential flaw in the logic of monetary policy. The foundation of our monetary policy is idea that there is an...

Despite what some believe, and undoubtedly what most believe, the market price of something is only what someone else is willing to buy it for. It is completely insignificant what the original price paid for the asset was, what someone thinks it should be, or what the math with discounted cash flows says it should be worth going forward.

As people keep focusing on the bottom in housing, and the bottom in equity markets, this key point should be remembered. The price that was originally...