Silver
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I don't have Spaf's magical way with charts, so this thread won't begin as informatively as his "Gold" thread did. But SLV has been behaving in a most intriguing manner since mid-December. So I wanted to start a thread for discussing the silver market.
How about it?
Lady
I am addicted to physical silver so I am tainted in any advise.:bigsmile:
Articles on silver are all over the daily news sites I read. From a contrarian point of view that could be a bad thing? If everyone is talking about it, is it over? It's on my watch list. Now that it's the Flavor of the Month :rolleyes: I'm trying to decide if I really should buy on the next pullback or if it's going to flash and be over.
This first article makes silver sound like a great longterm move though.
The Gold Bull Market Has a Silver Lining
By Adam Hamilton, 2/6/2009
"...One new long-term elite silver-stock investment we made in Zeal Intelligence in November in the heart of the panic was already up 81.9% as of this week. It pays big to be brave when everyone else is afraid. Indeed, since those depths silver has strengthened considerably. Over the past week it has averaged $12.46, 34.1% higher than its average $9.29 close in the week leading to its panic low.
This impressive run in silver has led some traders to wonder whether it is getting overbought and the short-term risk-reward equation is shifting out of its favor. With a good fraction of my own capital deployed in physical silver and various silver stocks, silver's near-term outlook intrigues me too. Of course I am very bullish on silver in a secular sense, but after my research this week I'm bullish on the coming months too...."
http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical...r-lining/42312
Hey! Look At Silver
By Brad Zigler, 2/6/2009
"Have you seen silver recently? The metal's taken out some significant overhead resistance. This is not just some technical prattle; silver's rally has developed some legs. ..."
http://www.greenfaucet.com/node/5856
Lady
Silver is great!! paper, bullion, coin, jewelry or clay. It don't matter to me. :nuts: I bought my coin silver at 10.00 an ounce. It was 13.15 today so I'm not complaining!!
Looking for thoughts here on SSRI, a silver miner.
Do you guys see a possible cup and handle here? Same with SLV, cup and small handle with a pivot price of $13.50. Both may be something to watch for a big volume move to the upside.
I don't see the handles - just the cups.
What Gold And Silver ETFs’ Relationship Means To You
By Tom Lydon on February 20, 2009
"Precious metals and their related exchange traded funds (ETFs) are being bought up as worried investors fear the consequences of government spending sprees and looming inflation.
Silver has enjoyed a renaissance of its own, as the price has rallied for the past four weeks. This is the reality of the recession beginning to drive investors to precious metals and tangibles. Silver Investing News reports that silver is outshining gold in the performance category, as it rose four times faster than gold. The gold/silver price ratio is down 7 points in the past month.
As governments devalue currencies to pay for our current financial crisis, speculators have increased demand for precious metals, reports Pham-Duy Nguyen for Bloomberg.
- The ratio tends to narrow in times of financial turmoil. In past recessions, it has hovered around 1:38. Today, it’s around 1:70, nearly twice what it was in the 1980s recession.
- Silver’s rising price is outpacing gold’s price: silver has increased by 21%, while gold has risen 13%.
- Motley Fool says that silver offers more potential for the upside than gold and is a good complement to gold exposure.
- Some predictions have the gold/silver ratio dipping to 1:20 in the current recession.
- The price ratio isn’t a driving force in the market, but it does impact silver more than it does gold.
Gold made advances for the third consecutive day as giddy investors in Asia ran for the cover of the metal safe haven. The precious metal is at its highest price since July, as low interest rates and government spending has many on edge, reports Glenys Sim for Bloomberg.
Gold has reached $975 an ounce. The gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD: 95.77 0.00 0.00%), is up 3.3% in the last week and up 14.4% in the last month; up 31.4% over past three months.
http://etftrends.redinews.com/tools/...042&symbol=gld
UBS AG metals strategists forecast a sustainable price at $1,000 an ounce for gold and maybe even higher gains for this year.
Silver futures for March delivery reached $14.01 an ounce in New York. The silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust (SLV: 13.888 0.00 0.00%), is up 4.9% in the last week and up 27.7% in the last month; up 52.4% over past three months.
http://etftrends.redinews.com/tools/...042&symbol=slv
"
http://www.dailymarkets.com/contribu...-means-to-you/
I started watching silver a year ago based on a comment from Show-me. I now own the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Proshares UltraSilver (AGQ), and silver miners (SLW and SSRI). I intend to hold them for quite a while.
Lady
Major breakdown of SSRI yesterday. (Sorry about the individual stocks, but no silver miner ETF yet.)
SLW seems to be holding up nicely, but I have a feeling it's one of those things where people want to get into silver stocks and are buying the lowest price one because they think it's 'the cheapest'. Of course, we all know that price is just an arbitrary number.
I looked at SSRI, SLW and PAAS when I was looking for my silver miner. Guess which one I picked? Yep, because it reached a pullback first, SSRI.:eek: It did well for a couple of months, but it's off the bottom of the bollinger bands now. Didn't have my stop set tight enough on that one. I'm a great believer in where silver is going, but I shouldn't have let sentiment cloud my judgement there.
One more tuition payment at ETF University! :toung:
Lady
Short vid on silver:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/vide...=1#14375381001
SLV's annual report:
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/090227/slv10-k.html
Any thoughts this week on SLV
I took a position on the current pullback @ 12.84 i could only hope that the market's buyers invest in a flight tot safety. :)
It's had a decent pullback, but with the PMO crossover, it makes me a little nervous. I'd use somewhere just below the moving averages as a place to stop if you are long.
http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/030209c.gif
I see an inverted Head & Shoulders on the 10-day chart. SLV has pooped into the 13 dollar range for the first time in 6 days.
http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q...lefox/Slv2.jpg
http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q...dlefox/SLV.jpg
Wednesday night Jim Cramer, who I find only entertaining, was touting the importance of having 20% in precious metals and his favorite was SILVER. Because of the lag to gold. He recommended SLV and GLD.
The next morning some old guy was a guest on CNBC Squawk and he said no dollar denominated investments, no stock, I don't know when this will turn around, I may be dead before it happens and buy GOLD and SILVER but mainly SILVER because it is lagging GOLD historically.
Buy a gun and move in next to a Mormon too for food.
It seems there was an SLV 13.44 spike on the Yahoo charts, but it doesn't show up on USAA account.
I have to admit to myself that I'm a little disappointed with SLV's action today. I'm watching and wanting a close @ 13.25
http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q...lefox/slv3.jpg
LOL! I'm surrounded by LDS on 3 immediate sides, plus another 2 doors down on the 4th side. They are a tight-knit community, don't interact with us neighbors unless absolutely necessary, they talk to each other tho. They take care of their own, not the beyond-hope Gentiles like me. what I wonder is how many of the non-LDS people in the area know who they are, and whether those people will come hunting the LDS stashes if times get really desperate. Some of the LDS folks are hunters, some are not, plenty of normal hunting weaponry and personal-defense pistols in the neighborhood, LDS and non-LDS alike. They LDS, may choose to band with rest of us into a neighborhood watch program if it comes to that, but won't count on it. :rolleyes:
I'm loving me some silver, I'd like to see a few more things line up, but nevertheless, here is my current perspective.
http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q...ox/8MARSLV.jpg
Nice chart, JTH. Is that the paid version of Stockcharts you're using?
No, I'm too cheap, and it's not too often I get to watch the markets in real time anyways. I'll usually cut and past the chart in old school MS Paint and work on it in there. It's really simple yet somehow relaxing. :)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV...d=p20550383138
I just listened to Ira. He thinks silver is still bullish, but is a non-trade at the moment.
http://iraepstein.linngroup.com/vide...ls-report.html
I am now wishing I sold all of my AGQ (ultra silver). I sold half near the open because I was not sure what was happening with it (opened up 5% when silver was flat). It eventaully corrected.
http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/030909b.gif
I wonder if this is a possible day trade strategy - fade the move of ultra ETF's when they do not move with the main ETF. I'm not sure how often it happens, or if it ever happens to the larger ETFs like SSO or SDS, but apparently it does happen to some.
I need a opinion.
One dollar index chart, does it look toppy and unable to break out?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$US...d=p51972347693
Two, silver chart, bouncing off of 50 day moving average?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV...d=p51972347693
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGQ...d=p51972347693
It looks likes silver (SLV) is a play as long as it can stay above the March low (12.26). The dollar is baffling me and appears to be the cause of why silver, gold, oil, copper, etc., are not flying yet. I say the dollar looks toppy, but I have been saying that for a couple of month now.
I have felt the same way about the dollar but until the BOE and ECB stop lowering their rates the dollar will appear stronger on the surface. Once they stop lowering rates I believe all hell will break loose by the way of inflation.
I'm looking at the ADX set @ 9
It seems that since Mid-December's upswing, the ADX trend strength has been decreasing. Currently, the ADX is on the weak side. The positive trend (+DI) is decending, while the negitive trend (-DI) is somewhat flat.
This is what I do know.
The previous two uptrends (Aug-Oct & Oct-Nov) were both met with an asending ADX, +DI, with a decending -DI.
This is what I don't know...
Why is the ADX & +DI tracking inversley with the uptrend?
Perhaps that is a sign of toppyness?
Silver's SLV is losing its luster and is not worth chasing at these levels. :(
Still, it's better than bonds :toung:
Attachment 22
Silver is perking up again, but needs another push to clear resistance and make a higher high.
http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/031309b.gif
Silver's SLV gaped down this morning .22 cents. :huh:
Attachment 37
Only to gap up today...
Attachment 44
I hate silver. :D Stopped out yesterday - straight up since.
Thing that urked me was how tempting it was to place a limit order, incase it bounced off 11.75 again. At those prices I was willing to be a buyer again. But I was sorta screwed anyways, since I didn't have enough buying power to justify the risk/reward ratio. :suspicious:
Our friend silver had an interesting week. If we get a market downturn next week I wonder what SLV will do?
Here are some different perspectives I'd like to share. These charts are looking at the price performance of Silver, Gold, Energy, Technology, and the Financials during different time frames.
Here are the last 14 trading days starting from the S&P 500's 676.53 March 9th close. While stocks were rocketing up, silver was left behind in the dust, but still turned in a respectable 2.98%
Attachment 76
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Here is the same chart from the February 9th peak, to the March 6th low (intra-day low of 666.79). As you can see, Silver and Gold turned in over 2%, while the other sectors were dieing a horrible death.
Attachment 77
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Finally, here is a Year-To-Date chart so we can look at a bigger time frame. Silver (SLV) has turned in an astounding 17.68%
Attachment 78
You've probably all seen this, but just in case. It fits nicely with JTH's chart post below.
Silver ETF: Good Option for Silver Investors
by: Manshu Verma March 28, 2009
"iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is the world’s larget silver ETF backed by physical stock of silver bullion. It trades on the NYSE Arca and is a good option for investors looking to invest in silver by means of an ETF. The sponsor of iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is Barclays Bank (BCS).
Backed by Physical Silver Bullion
As on March 23rd the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) held 8,180.44 tonnes of silver. This stock of silver is stored at SLV’s custodian — JP Morgan Chase (JPM).
Some commodity funds not only hold the underlying commodity, but, on top of that, trade on the futures contracts of that commodity on exchanges like COMEX. SLV doesn’t do this. SLV takes delivery of physical silver, which complies with London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) silver delivery rules.
There are other silver funds which take positions in silver by buying stock of silver mining companies. SLV doesn’t do that either.
Passive Investment Vehicle
This means that SLV is a passive investment vehicle and the price of the fund moves in tandem with silver prices. There are no fancy hedging or other active management techniques used by this silver ETF. The lack of active management means reduced expenses and fees.
SLV Price Movement
Here is a look at how the SLV ETF moved since September 2008. There was a 10:1 split on 21st September, so I am not including the chart which includes prices before that date (click to enlarge).
Silver Mining vs Supply
In the past seven years — silver mining has increased from 591 million ounces in 2000 to 670.6 million ounces in 2007, which is a growth of 13% at a CAGR of about 1.82%
At the same time the total demand has risen from 824 million ounces to 894.5 million ounces, which is an increase of 8.5% at a CAGR of 1.18%
The gap between total demand and total supply is matched by:
Source: World Silver Survey 2008
- Net Government Sales
- Old Silver Scrap
- Producer Hedging
- Implied Net Investment / Disinvestment
Silver Demand Segments
While silver is generally thought of as a precious metal, its industrial use exceeds its use in jewelery and coins. Here is a break-up of 2007 silver usage segments (click to enlarge):
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...ge1_thumb1.jpg
This chart shows that the demand for physical silver is likely to be more stable than other precious metals like gold, which have a large component of discretionary spending built into their demand.
Source: World Silver Survey 2008
Silver Rally
Precious metals like gold and silver are getting increasingly popular because they are seen as effective hedges against stock market downturns. Like gold, silver is considered a good hedge against the stock market, as investors flock to safety in times of uncertainty.
The quantitative easing that the Fed is currently employing is expected to result in massive inflation and fall in the value of dollar. This is another reason precious metals like silver are gaining in popularity and seeing a rally.
Conclusion
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETF is a good option for anyone who wants to invest in silver, but is not interested in holding huge quantities of physical silver. However, the prices of gold and silver have already gone up quite considerably and given the enormous interest in these metals lately — this may just be where the next bubble is forming."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1282...lver-investors
Lady