-
Re: Market Talk May 2009
Dave Fry's charts and commentary from 5/13/09:
Thursday Outlook: The News Fails to Support the Rally
by: David Fry
May 13, 2009
Retail sales and foreclosure filings were, ahem, “worse than expected”. Markets have been looking toppy and moving around on light volume as indicated in previous postings. But dip buyers have been persistent even when the news was bad but spun as “better than expected”. Not so today.
Breadth was decidedly negative but volume remains modest.
click to enlarge
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...004_thumb1.jpg
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...d_image006.jpg
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...d_image018.jpg
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...d_image020.jpg
[...MORE]
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1111...port-the-rally
Lady
-
Re: Market Talk May 2009
ETF Rewind - Week 20 (05/15/09)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFK...k_20_Table.png(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)
The S&P500 (SPY) finally made a more significant dent into its historic rebound, down -4.6% on the week. However, Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (IYR) were down more severely, about -11% each. Consumer Staples (XLP), Technology (XLK) and Healthcare (XLV) were relatively spared for having previously slowed their rate of incline, each down less than -2.0%.
Week Twenty-One of 2009 features a significantly lighter earnings and economic calendar, including Housing data and the April FOMC minutes release:
Among the tracked ETFs, both Consumer Discretionarys (XLY) and Utilities (XLU) look short-term oversold, whereas Precious Metals (DBP) is now technically overbought by some measures. While the short-term trend has been interrupted and there is much fretting over the future of this rally, we thus far remain above critical support levels, and, while I'm net bearish on next week -- with all the money managers claiming to be on the lookout for re-entry points -- it seems early to be calling it officially down for the count. Enjoy Your Weekend!
http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/
Lady
-
Re: Market Talk May 2009
ETF Rewind - Week 21 (05/22/09)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFK...k_21_Table.png(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)
"Last week's diminutive S&P500 (SPY) returns, up +0.3%, belied the significant recovery attempt and failure of the majors, putting in lower May highs across the board. The real gainers were International (EFA +5.2%) and Emerging Market (EEM +5.6%) stocks, boosted by higher Commodities (DBC +5.0%) and a weakend US Dollar (UUP -3.6%). In contrast, long-term Treasuries (TLT) fell rather hard, down about -4.6%.
Week Twenty-Two of 2009 features the following busy earnings and economic calendar, including Preliminary GDP on Friday:
For now, it's good to see sectors and asset classes begin to diverge in performance rather than all trading as one. While our economic woes are far from over and the outlook remains cloudy, at least investors are able to choose their battles."
http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/
Lady
-
Re: Market Talk May 2009
One last ETF Rewind for May:
ETF Rewind - Week 22 (05/29/09)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFK...k_22_Table.png(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)
"It was another choppy but positive week for equities with the S&P500 (SPY) gaining an impressive +3.9% during the holiday-shortened week. This move put the index well above its simple 10-month moving average for the first time in nearly a year (although it remains just slightly below its 200-day).
In fact, gains were posted across all asset classes, with only the US Dollar showing mild weakness (UUP -0.8%). Note, however, how the reflation trade has nearly all commodities and correlated emerging market ETFs, such as DBC and EEM, looking very short-term overbought under the Price Index columns.
Week Twenty-Three of 2009 features another busy earnings and economic calendar, including the important Friday Jobs report:
Volume was very light during most of May, and it is easy to imagine a scenario where institutional money now begins to reenter equities after price having consolidated through time alongside all of the major indices having moved above -- or nearly above -- that magic 200-day line in the sand.
However, that is merely the technician's perspective. Last week's sector leadership was less than inspiring, equities are slightly short-term overbought, the economy remains off-track, and bonds could start competing with equities at current (rising) rate levels. The light volume contributed without a doubt, but it is really no wonder we witnessed such repeated sharp, fast breaks last week given these vastly opposed perspectives!"
http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/
Lady