Is this my new home?? Please come on in and enjoy.
Printable View
Is this my new home?? Please come on in and enjoy.
As I stated earlier in another thread, I failed to complete my first ever ETF purchase today. Couldn't get someone to sell. I will try again tomorrow. Tried to buy SLV @13.05.
Good luck JB45!
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:SLV
The low was $13.11
Hey there, JB45! Thought I'd drop by and welcome you to your new home. Love what you've done with the place! :bigsmile:
Lady
OK, finally! A new chapter in my life has been completed!! My first purchase of a ETF. I got SLV @ 13.32 today. This is a long term position.
Put in a limit GTC order for ICO (International Coal Group) @ 2.30 hopefully it will fill tomorrow. I want this for another long term position.
It's a shame I can't do this at work.:suspicious: Darn computer Nazi's.
OK, good luck again. Now you're addicted. :D
How about an iphone or something? I don't go anywhere without my laptop and Verizon card - just in case.Quote:
It's a shame I can't do this at work.:suspicious: Darn computer Nazi's.
Don't tell me anymore, or you'll probably have to kill me. :D
Since the stimulus bill is going to pass, I am thinking about a clean energy ETF for a long position. ILCN, GEX, KWT or PBW. ICLN has the lowest expense ratio @ 0.48 but is global vice U.S. Anyone already holding a clean energy ETF?
Tom/Lady or anyone else. How do you determine when to sell? Technical analysis, a set percentage or a combination of both? What method do you use on an upward trend? Limit Sell?
JB, with the caveat that I'm just learning this stuff myself, here is the way I decide. And it depends from trade to trade. I make myself write down a trading plan before I ever enter a trade, including the entry point I want and the exit strategy. Sometimes that exit strategy will include a stop or trailing stop. (If I use a stop I try to set that stop just off of technical indicators, or it will be triggered the same time that everyone else's stops are and I'll get trampled.) Sometimes my position just has an expected exit price.
I always include in my plan the reason why I entered the trade, to keep the goal in mind as I look back at the plan afterwards. Then I exit according to my plan. :) Or if the market doesn't move according to my plan I exit as soon as I see my plan sucked. :embarrest:
And if things are moving too fast for me to take 5 minutes to write up a plan, then they are moving too fast for me to be in that trade in the first place. :rolleyes:
For what it's worth,
Lady
Lady got it. A plan is a good idea. Is it a swing trade (days), a long term hold ( weeks, months, etc), or a scalp / day trade?
I also watch the market for overbought / oversold readings and sentiment to know if we could be seeing a reversal any time soon.
As Oscar (livewithoscar.com) says, it's never too soon to take a profit. But he is a day trader so he closes out all trades by the close. While I do make day trades occasionally, I'm not a day trader, but if I see a 20% profit in a position, I start thinking about exiting, or raising my stop.
Selling is a tough decision. I think Revshark has a chapter in his book about that.
Thanks Lady & Tom, I will have to chew on that awhile.
I bought SLV the other day at 13.32. Today's high was 14.19. I haven't got a plan on when to sell so I guess I need to figure one out.
I've gotten killed on my ICO. No stop. My only recourse is to hold long term. It should come back up when the energy sector comes back. I hope...:unsure:
Good luck on you SLV trade, I keep waiting for it to pull back, but I've yet to find an opportunity to pull the trigger.
If I had to venture a guess???
When Gold hits 1,000 we might get some profit taking, perhaps SLV will follow. But hey, it's just a guess...
After reading Lady's 4 page post on ETF&Markets my plan is the following. SLV is above it's 200DMA so I am going to set an 8% trailing stop and let it ride.
http://www.etftalk.com/forum/showthr...?p=834#post834
Yeah, I've have ones like that too. Took a position too fast just to put my money to work, then will hold it to at least try to make my commission costs back. :wacko: I'm coming around to thinking that maybe it's better to find somewhere else to put my funds where they have a better chance of making money than to get caught in the "buy-n-pray" type of buy and hold scenario. :)
Lady
I had to make a similar type loss on AIG, mostly because I just don't have the patience to watch myself lose money :bigsmile:
That coal chart looks ugly!!! Darn thing took a nose dive the previous time the STO hit under 20
Have you looked at USO lately? Embedded STO since Feb... :huh:
SCO is the inverse ETF of USO. Unbelievable move in SCO, wish I had some of that! How much higher can it go?
I'm up 6% and change on my SLV. I tried to set a trailing stop but since I have <100 shares Zecco wouldn't let me. As long as it stays above it's 200EMA I will continue to hold as a long position.
Since my ICO has gone south I am thinking about doubling down my position to lower my overall cost. I'd love to hear any opinions on that thought.:rolleyes:
Hi Justbizness45;
I hope you don't take my comments the wrong way, we are all here to learn, including myself.
I looked at a chart of ICO at stockcharts.com. These are the indicators I put on it. Bollinger Bands, 5dy moving average, 10dymoving average, CCI20, slow stochastics, and MACD.
$1.50 is a key support area, and you may get a bounce off that as you have had 6 down days in a row. If that bounce comes I would sell 1/3 of your position at the 5dy moving average level, 1/3 of your position at the 10 day moving average level, and 1/3 of your position at the 20 day moving average level if it gets there. Why?
1) Volume was very heavy on the sell off indicating a massive amount of sellers, on the way back up, there will be many more sellers getting out to salvage what they can.
2) The MACD is now below zero and falling indicating a very weak picture going forward.
3) The 5dy moving average is below the 20 dy moving average indicating the sellers are in control.
The good news is the CCI20 and Slow Stochastics are oversold so there should be some sort of a pop coming up soon. Take advantage of it and sell as mentioned above. It's never easy taking a loss but its worse getting locked into a bad situtation and throwing good money after bad. Never average down when the 20daymoving average is declining. Hope this helps. This is what I would do in this situation. 14U:)
I'm probably not telling you anything you don't already know, but I was interested in doing some quick research myself.
March, April & May are the strongest months, but I'm not sure those same rules apply during a bear market. But still, those months did well for 2008.
My main concern would be the Conference Call on Feb 12. That's when the stock went into a landslide. I'd want to listen to that call and see what their projections are.
I noticed the 3 insider trading events just after the conference call. I'm not sure how to analyze those events. It could be an attempt to show faith in their stock, or it could be that they have the time and money to go long at these levels.
Regardless, I'm not sure I'd do anything until the stochastic gets above 20. Just looking at the last time they embedded is enough to keep me away.
But do keep in mind, I'm not long on anything, including shorts.
Best of luck.
14U and JTH, thank you for your analysis!!:bigsmile: This is how we learn and I am very appreciative of your opinions. I will do some reasearch this weekend and reset my stops and we will see what happens. Thanks again for the insight.
Found this on ICO, stock went up 9.4% today. They did an SEC filing of form a 8-K. Looks like they renegotiated their loan terms. I am going to just take a long term position and not panic.:huh:
Using my 20/20 hindsight I would not have made the purchase, but since I did and there isn't a large amount of cash involved I think I will let it ride.
14U I added your last sentence of sage advice about doubling down to my notes. Thanks again!!:)
My ICO position was made @ 2.17 still holding :wacko:(I bought the day before I started this thread). My SLV position is still @ 13.32.
Thinking about moving into GDX or increasing SLV position on Monday. I like what I am reading and seeing. With this drawback I may get a good entry point on Monday.
Looks like GDX started coming off its lows Friday afternoon. I'm going back in on the first pullback after open Monday. SLV isn't showing any signs of life. Not sure why. I already have a - for my small account - fairly heavy postion there so I'm not going to add to it. For what it's worth,
Lady
Here's a little diddy on silver:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/vide...=1#14375381001
I'll post it on the silver thread also
Based on the HSBC reports, financials will probably get hammered tomorrow. From 350Z's thread on the other site:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...etrss#comments
Time to go to short ETFs again??
Decision Moose is staying in gold for another week. Enlightening analysis of last week's decisions.
http://www.decisionmoose.com/Moosecalls.html
Perfect! But it looks like it is going to be a Monday morning gap open and anyone long gold (or silver) and/or short financials may want to use a trailing stop once the market opens. Those gaps tend to get filled pretty quickly.
Bought more SLV today. Unfortunately I had to place the order pre-market as I am not able to trade at work. As a result my order filled first thing this morning @ 13.00 for a total position in SLV @ 13.11.:suspicious: I need to figure out a better way..........
Sorry I haven't been posting much. After 3 failed attempts to buy GE last week and the resulting loss of gain because the transactions didn't happen I was frustrated. Today I did put in a pre-market order for C @ 1.95 before I went to work. When I saw C up 33% today I tried to log on and see if it the order has closed so I could sell and couldn't get on the site due to work's security. The buy did close @ 1.95. Now I have to decide if I want to hold or sell tomorrow before I go to work.:huh: Still holding my SLV.
From Denniger on the Market-Ticker:
Floating around DC from little birds tweeting (a piece of which apparently got caught up by CNBC this afternoon) is an idea that would actually work to jumpstart investment and private capital flows.
Exempt any purchase made this year only from capital gains tax no matter when it is sold.
Now this year that will not likely cost much if anything, because there are little in the way of capital gains right now (among houses, etc.)
It will have back end costs, but it will also drive capital into the markets in a major way.
We currently have a crisis of confidence. To fix it you can either lock up all the fraudsters or you can put raw, red meat in front of the tiger - that is, crank up the "greed" dial.
The former is hard, the latter is easy.
This would be easy.
President Obama, here's the proposal:
This will:
- Any asset purchased by 12/31/2009 is exempt from capital gains tax no matter when it is sold.
- Exempt instruments include machinery, equipment, real estate and improvements to same (both commercial and residential) and any security traded on a listed exchange with a central clearing counterparty.
- Explicitly NOT included are OTC private-party securities such as CDS.
This would immediately reverse the funds flow out of mutual funds, it would provide funds to business via bond sales, it would provide incentives to buy common stocks and it would promote long-term ownership.
- Drive capital out of "the mattress"; if you don't buy by 12/31, too bad so sad. This focuses the stimulus on both the time and place where it is needed.
- Is non-discriminatory as to where you put the capital, but if you sell and buy after 12/31, you likewise lose the exemption, so this provides incentives for long term buy and hold transactions, which are precisely what you want.
- Specifically provides an incentive for capital formation in small business; the potential gains here are monstrous, but of course so are the risks. Since small business creates most jobs, this is a good thing to provide incentives for.
- Incents people to buy both stocks and bonds - that is, to re-enter the capital markets.
While "traders" (myself included) would benefit this trader would have to seriously consider sticking a good chunk of my available funds into an account intended not to be touched for 20 years spread across various investments; this would provide people with a one-time way to get themselves what amounts to an infinite-size 401k or IRA, yet you have to do it now when the economy clearly needs it.
You want to fix the capital markets?
That would do it.
(Yes, it would hit cap gains tax receipts in forward years, but hopefully economic growth would cover the shortfall. This much I know - it's a hell of a lot better idea than "spray and pray" with government spending, and wouldn't require Treasury issuance. Even better if President Obama was to propose this not one Republican could oppose it, given their claimed propensity to support "tax cuts". Hubba hubba.)
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
It has potential!!:rolleyes: