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The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
The fight between FAS and FAZ is one of the hottest ones going on right now. With that in mind, I thought the battle was worth its own thread. So let's discuss financials here! :)
I found the following article fascinating. If you're interested in the financials ETFs the entire article (a fairly long one) is well worth the read.
http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2...ulls-vs-bears/
"...but for now, just absord the fact that each intersection the RSI and the FS%K creates, it is either a buy or a sell. If the FS%K is moving ABOVE the RSI, it’s a buy; if the FS%K is moving BELOW the RSI, it’s a sell. Below is a list of times, dates, and average candle prices for timed, majorly connected FAS/FAZ trades:- 10:30am, 2-5-09: FAS buy @ $8.05, FAZ sell @ $57.02
- 2:45pm, 2-5-09: FAS sell @ $9.45, FAZ buy @ $47.82
- 1:30pm, 2-9-09: FAS sell @ $11.26, FAZ buy @ $38.78
- 3:45pm, 2-10-09: FAS buy @ $8.22, FAZ sell @ $49.45
- 1:00pm, 2-11-09: FAS sell @ $8.81, FAZ buy @ $45.09
- 2:15pm, 2-11-09: FAS buy @ $8.44, FAZ sell @ $47.40
- 3:45pm, 2-11-09: FAS sell @ $8.84 (pre-close sell)
- 9:30am, 2-12-09: FAZ buy @ $47.88 (off-the-open buy)
- 3:00pm, 2-12-09: FAS buy @ $7.61, FAZ sell @ $50.42
- 11:00am, 2-13-09: FAS sell @ $8.38, FAZ buy @ $46.79
From here, the indicators didn’t signal anymore trades. The purple trade (#2) was an indicator head fake, for FAS shouldn’t have been sold and no way should FAZ have been bought. If you would have analyzed the charts prior to using indicators, however, you would have realized this and not relied on the indicator to trade for you in this situation. Using these indicators with your volume spikes and your price comparisons, you could have made a ton of money off of FAS and FAZ in this 10-Day time span.
As for the beginning of next week, weekend news will no doubt play a significant role as to how Tuesday’s open will trend. For now, I would use FAS’ descending triangle pattern and FAZ’s ascending triangle pattern in order to have somewhat of a backbone to trade off of in relation to this deadly ETF/iETF combination.
Hope this helps you on your journey to tearing up the market and not letting it tear up you.
UPDATE: The link seen below is a mock $100,000 trading portfolio that backtested the RSI-%K Trading Strategy for FAS and FAZ. The Trading Strategy itself is still in the works, but it took in some nice profits through the 10 Day time span discussed above:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=peX30LFa4TaQ3ikIlqwTtMw
"
Lady
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Wow, there's a big old head and shoulders pattern on that FAS chart. It's a small pattern (time-wise) but it looks bearish. H&S target is about $3.50
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
FAZ, the financial 3x bear, has just been going nuts the last couple of months. Doubling its worth and then some. So what happens to FAS and FAZ if (when...) the government nationalizes the banks?
IMHO the most likely scenario is that FAZ keeps climbing gradually higher as the banks are slowly absorbed into the government system with bail-outs in exchange for preferred stock options.
But if a second scenario materializes, what happens to FAS and FAZ then? This is not a rhetorical question. I'd really love to get your opinions! What do you think?
Lady
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
etftalk
Wow, there's a big old head and shoulders pattern on that FAS chart. It's a small pattern (time-wise) but it looks bearish. H&S target is about $3.50
FYI, FAS was 7.93 when I wrote that a week ago, and yesterday the low was 3.92. I love when technical analysis works.
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
XL-entLady
But if a second scenario materializes, what happens to FAS and FAZ then? This is not a rhetorical question. I'd really love to get your opinions! What do you think?
I won't venure a guess since I am not sure what happens when the gov't owns the stock.
But did anyone hear Cramer yesterday saying something to the affect of; those who buy ETF's like SKF (short financials) are a big part of the problem and the SEC should stop these short funds?
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Morning Lady. "nother question. FS%K? What's that? Haven't run across that indicator before? is it only available on your paid StockCharts site?
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
alevin
Morning Lady. "nother question. FS%K? What's that? Haven't run across that indicator before? is it only available on your paid StockCharts site?
That one doesn't ring a bell. There is a K line in Stochastics, but the FS part ....:confused: Where did you see the indicator?
Lady
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
XL-entLady
"...but for now, just absord the fact that each intersection the RSI and
the FS%K creates, it is either a buy or a sell. If
the FS%K is moving ABOVE the RSI, it’s a buy; if
the FS%K is moving BELOW the RSI, it’s a sell.
UPDATE: The link seen below is a mock $100,000 trading portfolio that backtested the RSI
-%K Trading Strategy for FAS and FAZ. The Trading Strategy itself is still in the works, but it took in some nice profits through the 10 Day time span discussed above:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=peX30LFa4TaQ3ikIlqwTtMw
"
Lady
OK, I got it now, I think. The shorthand in your article was too cryptic. :embarrest: Second question. I don't know how to put RSI and Fast-Sto on the same chart, can I just look at them same time on separate charts and see what he's talking about?
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
alevin
OK, I got it now, I think. The shorthand in your article was too cryptic. :embarrest: Second question. I don't know how to put RSI and Fast-Sto on the same chart, can I just look at them same time on separate charts and see what he's talking about?
Okay, I see where your question is coming from now. I think this guy uses TradeStation, which allows you to make your own blended oscillators on the charts.
In order to get the same effect, I use StochRSI on stockcharts.com. I can't remember if that is an option I had before I started paying for the stockcharts upgrade or not. But it's an indicator that I really love, and it would keep me out of trouble more often if I'd use it like I'm supposed to!
And if you don't have the StochRSI option, you can just put RSI and Fast-Sto on the same chart and use the information that way. Let me know what you think, okay? :)
Lady
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Today's action in FAS/FAZ was interesting to watch. In case your wondering, the wify has friends in from out of town, so I'm hiding in my room (translation, too much time on my computer.)
FAS Financial Bull 3x 4.02+0.29(+7.67%)
FAZ Financial Bear 3x 56.09-5.41(-8.80%)
Here is an unweighted look at today's closes
http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q...untitled-5.png
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JTH
In case your wondering, the wify has friends in from out of town, so I'm hiding in my room (translation, too much time on my computer.)
I feel for you man. :sick:
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
More tripe to bog down the servers... :rolleyes:
Here are some hourly charts. Who's going to be filling in the gap?
Attachment 26Attachment 25
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JTH
More tripe to bog down the servers... :rolleyes:
Here are some hourly charts. Who's going to be filling in the gap?
Attachment 26Attachment 25
Looking to see if FAS can enter into 4.50 territory.
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Out of 190+ Stocks tracked by FAS, only 3 closed in the red today!
http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q...efox/FASSS.jpg
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JTH
Out of 190+ Stocks tracked by FAS, only 3 closed in the red today!
At the moment (20 minute delay) 36% or 70 FAS stocks are in the red.
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Looking at XLF
Last time it pierced through the upper bollinger bands was in Sep 2008.
Last time it pierced through the 50 SMA it was promply rejected and what followed was a land slide.
XLF is now approaching a point where the upper bollinger band and the 50 SMA are close together. Perhaps this will provide a stong area of resistance. :)
Attachment 31
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JTH
XLF is now approaching a point where the upper bollinger band and the 50 SMA are close together. Perhaps this will provide a stong area of resistance. :)
From your mouth to ... oh, violated trader rule number 6 about praying again. :toung:
Lady
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
I finally put a trailing stop on half my FAZ position this morning. A 10% trailing stop and it's just about to trigger. :eek:
Lady
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
XL-entLady
I finally put a trailing stop on half my FAZ position this morning. A 10% trailing stop and it's just about to trigger. :eek:
Lady
Yea there are a whole bunch of us in the FAZ camp :blink1:
I don't regret owning FAZ, but I do regret owning so much of it that I can't go out and play with the current uptrend.
I also regret not respecting & recognizing the bear rally early enough, but that's a whole different story...
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
But, soft! what light through yonder window breaks?
It is the east, and FAZ is the sun.
Arise, fair FAZ, and kill the envious moon,
Who is already sick and pale with grief, :sad:
5 Minute
Attachment 36
Daily
Attachment 35
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JTH
But, soft! what light through yonder window breaks?
It is the east, and FAZ is the sun.
Arise, fair FAZ, and kill the envious moon,
Who is already sick and pale with grief, :sad:
JTH,
Be right sit tight. Our day in FAZ will come. The bulls are about to reach their orgasmic peak. When they fall, it will be epic. The .gov have not done anything to fix this mess. We have tent cities and folks living in the woods, in the U.S.
The market is just not finish drawing in the suckers yet. We have just entered overbought.
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JTH
But, soft! what light through yonder window breaks?
It is the east, and FAZ is the sun.
Arise, fair FAZ, and kill the envious moon,
Who is already sick and pale with grief, :sad:
ROFL!:nuts: I was thinking of another quote myself:
To be or not to be, that is the question. Whether tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, or to take arms against a sea of troubles and, by opposing, end them.
At least, I think that's how it goes. It's been a few decades since my English Lit classes. :toung:
Lady
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
I posted this at the other site, something to think about.
There is a doomsday scenario we should all be aware of that could come to fruition. Because of the AIG scandal (paid bonuses), there is very little political will now to give AIG anymore bailout money. If it is revealed today (or in the future) that AIG will need more bailout money, the chances are very good they will not get it. We are then at a place where the whole global financial structure is in deep jeopardy. Folks, this is going to get very interesting as well as scary.
If this happens buy all the FAZ you can.
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Here$14U
If this happens buy all the FAZ you can.
Thanks for the incite :)
FAZ not off to a good start this morning.
Attachment 38
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Here$14U
I posted this at the other site, something to think about.
There is a doomsday scenario we should all be aware of that could come to fruition. Because of the AIG scandal (paid bonuses), there is very little political will now to give AIG anymore bailout money. If it is revealed today (or in the future) that AIG will need more bailout money, the chances are very good they will not get it. We are then at a place where the whole global financial structure is in deep jeopardy. Folks, this is going to get very interesting as well as scary.
If this happens buy all the FAZ you can.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Ever the optimist, I'll be the first to admit that I'm a lousy technical analyst. Nevertheless, I'm not worried about my losing position in FAZ, after all I'm only down 48.28% I'm not worried because I know that when times get tough, I can always make stuff up to make myself feel better. So to make myself feel better, I'll take a look at XLF and make my case for the hungry bear.
The Slow STO is now in overbought territory. If you'll notice the yellow line I drew across the STO's peaks, than you'll also notice it hasn't spent much time in overbought territory within the last nine months.
Moving on... Anyone who watches Oscar's crazy videos on You Tube knows that he likes to point out trading channels. So to make myself feel better I've made up a channel that shows us we have not broken the trend and that the trend is still down. We also haven't gotten above the 2nd previous swing high.
Now for the ADX. The main ADX trend indicator is what I would consider to be in Neutral and it has been pretty good at marking short-term market bottoms when it peaks.
But I don't want to focus on the main indicator, I want to focus on the Positive trend +DI and the Negative trend -DI. They are both at the peak of their trending range which leads me to believe they will turn around soon.
I'll give it about a week, if the Bear doesn't feed, than I'll shoot him myself... :toung:
Attachment 39
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Here$14U
If it is revealed today (or in the future) that AIG will need more bailout money, the chances are very good they will not get it. We are then at a place where the whole global financial structure is in deep jeopardy.
If the affect on AIG not getting bail out money is truly as doomsdayish as it is made out to be, then the Fed will bail them out regardless.
All stops will be pulled out in order to avoid the ultimate global market melt-down. You can bet on it.
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
I think I've read that there is about $63 Trillion in derivatives, credit default swaps, etc. outstanding for which no one knows their worth. How much of this toxic stuff remain on AIG's books? If the bailout money for AIG (if asked for by AIG) is not passed by Congress, than the Fed will bail them out?! The Fed is now buying US Treasuries to keep interest rates down, most likely to keep the National Debt affordable. Between buying Treasuries and the possibility of bailing out AIG, should AIG ask for billions more, what will the Fed's balance sheet look like? The US Dollar took a pounding today, so obviously the Fed doesn't care what toilet the $ goes down as long as interest rates don't go higher. Looks like the US $ is toast to me. Gold and Silver should do well if the $ heads down.:)
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Never thought I'd turn into something resembling a goldbug, but here I go. Got a good start anyway. I was a penniless grad student in mid80s when the west coast timber market was in the toilet, companies overpaid for timber, went bankrupt. I got a windfall (for me) insurance payout. I was afraid to stick it in savings account at 17% in the credit union because I'd never had enough money to have a savings account prior to then, was afraid to put all that money into a savings account because then I wouldn't have full fingertip access to it if I needed it. It slowly slipped away paying living and education costs over the next few years and buying a new Honda Civic to replace my old Chevy that had 125K miles on it. Wish I'd had the grasp I do now on the economy back then and ways I could have managed those funds to make them last longer, vs. the ignorance I had back in dealing with my investing opportunity that I was too financially illiterate to handle well.
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Here$14U
The US Dollar took a pounding today, so obviously the Fed doesn't care what toilet the $ goes down as long as interest rates don't go higher. Looks like the US $ is toast to me.
The American dollar has been devalued with this move by the FED. I cannot see a good outcome to this.:mad:
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
XLF Bias Depends on Time Frame
By Bill Luby, 3/18/09
Lately it seems as if the financial sector is the market. For this reason, I now watch the financial sector SPDR (XLF) and the KBW Bank Index (BKX) tick by tick, in addition to a handful of financial stocks that seem to be in the most peril on a particular day.
In my opinion, however, XLF is the best way to capture the full extent of goings on in the financial sector, from banks and brokerage houses to insurers and consumer finance companies, XLF pretty much covers the waterfront.
The chart below captures the last six months of action in XLF and highlights the problem facing XLF and the broader markets at the moment. Stocks are overbought in the short-term and oversold in the long-term.
Rather than use oscillators to show how overbought and oversold stocks are, I generally prefer to rely on a combination of moving averages and trend strength indicators, with volatility as an important secondary indicator. Looking at the moving averages, XLF is now well above the 10 day MA and running up against resistance in the form of the 50 day MA. In terms of trend, utilizing the Aroon indicator to measure trend and breakout strength, XLF is bullish in the 10 day calculations, but bearish from a 30 day perspective. In this chart there is not much to see in terms of volatility, but by tracking in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, XLF generally has positive short-term momentum, while proximity to the upper band suggests a reversal is likely soon.
So there you have it: bullish momentum triggering buying on the part of the trend following crowd, while overbought indicators have the swing trading crowd ready to get short. Such is the current state of the market. The direction in which you lean is more likely to be a function of the time horizon of your analysis than any other technical factor.
Disclosure: Short XLF at time of writing.
http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical...-horizon/98485
Lady
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
60 Minute chart for those of us loving on some FAZ :toung:
Attachment 43
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Looking at the charts (like I do anything else) I'll be somewhat encouraged if FAS closes under 6.00 & FAZ closes above 30.00
Shoot for the moon, ask for the stars...
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Let the epic battle begin...
FAS dressed in green
FAZ dressed in red
FAS is handed the ball with a spike in volume...
FAZ takes a hit, but the ground is pretty soft when you're only four foot tall... :toung:
Attachment 69
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Our friend the FAS might give us a, HOURLY cross-over sell signal on the ADX. Although it may cross over today, I myself wouldn't call it an official sell signal untill we get a stonger divergance (something like 5-10 points of seperation)
The FAZ chart's ADX is not telling the same opposite story, so something isn't lined up correctly. :rolleyes:
Attachment 73
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
I got FAZed over @ 50... Lets get the FAZ out of here! This thing is FAZed up! I do admit, my technical numbers are a little FAZzy :toung:
I like to think that our badly beaten down FAZ is forming a base. A base of operations from which to plan its next attack on its evil twin brother FAS. Tech carried this rally while FAS was riding its back.
If I'm wrong, well it really doesn't matter because I'm in @ FAZin 50 and that was wrong! I can only continue to be wrong untill I'm right.
Attachment 75
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
I agree, J! If FAS doesn't get a Geithner Goose, then FAZ might make it off the ETF Hospital's critical list. :toung:
Lady
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
You know considering all the hoopla about the mark-to-market and the G20, I think FAZ has held up rather well.
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Re: The Financials: FAS vs. FAZ
Maybe - the XLF is up 3% and FAZ is down 9%. I guess that's just a daily typical swing and could be worse given the news. I am a little surprised that we didn't get a "sell the news" reaction since this was expected (I thought it was anyway).