Sharpest decline in 26 years

Sharpest decline in 26 years

Economic activity shrank by 3.8% in last three months of 2008, according to the government's gross domestic product report.

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: January 30, 2009: 11:10 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The U.S. economy suffered its biggest slowdown in 26 years in the last three months of 2008, according to the government's first reading about the fourth quarter released Friday.

More ... http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/30/news...ion=2009013011

henry blodgett....lol


http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com...-the-right-way


but hey.....he may be telegraphing some new idea's from barack's camp for all i know

John Mauldin's e-letter of 2/7/2009 said in part:

"If the S&P 500 were to close where it is today, and using the estimates for the first two quarters of 2009, the P/E ratio would be 36.4 on July 1.
But what if earnings merely fall to where they were in the last recession, or about 55-60% of where the projections are today? That would drop the 12-month trailing earnings for the four quarters ending June 30 to $15.90 and result in a nose-bleed P/E of 54.7 by the middle of the year.
If earnings don't come in dramatically better for the first quarter as opposed to last quarter, we could be setting up for a nasty summer bear market. Even in the bear market of 2001-2, the P/E did not get above 47. Which, by the way, at a 47 multiple would correspond to a range for the S&P of either 1111 if the earnings come in as projected or 731 if they come in at the lower range.

I see nothing on the horizon which suggests the economy is going to get manifestly stronger in the next two quarters. The real risk is that earnings come in weak for both quarters and investors simply despair this summer, throwing in the towel and bringing about a vicious bear market. I would seriously consider hedging any long positions you have before earnings season this next April. If they come in stronger, then we will see."

:unsure:
Lady

Sobering.

Even more sobering. Greatest contraction in inflation-adjusted personal consumption in the past 50 years-multi-generational behavior shift in progress. Inverse of multi-generational shift in savings rate. If you think in chart indicators like I do. :unsure:


Attachment 8

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/friday.htm

The whole article is very worth reading. Lightbulb on-Implications for investment performance over the next decade or longer.

BTW-Tom, I don't know why the url link isn't functioning properly for me. I did my usual copy link from site, past into the little box with the link icon here. doesn't seem to be functioning as intended. Also, I don't know why the image is so small. I did my normal procedure there too. If you click on it, it will enlarge to normal size. Help?

Do you read Tim Knight's "Slope of Hope"? I think he is interesting, instructive and occasionally prescient. He had an interesting post on his blog last night about where he thinks the market is going over the next few months. :unsure: I've excerpted a very small part of the post below. Alevin, this one's for you!

"....But I want to point out that, besides the line in the sand at 800 (which is mildly tough; I wish I had shorted more /ES this morning when it was bobbling around 800, but yesterday's wounds left me too sheepish). The more important levels are 881.38 and, the really important one, 1014.14. The area around 1000, which is both Fibonacci retracement as well as the underbelly of a huge descending trendline, is going to be the Incredible Hulk to the bulls out there. I hope I can be a decent trader as we might our way up to 1,000 this year, but God Help The Bulls when we get there, because I will turn into a snarling maniac. I won't be talking about 666. I'll be talking about 400...."


http://www.slopeofhope.com/

Lady

I read his blog too. I don't have much to say about it, becuase I don't like to look that far ahead. But do think it's plausable, and that's why I'm watching 750 like a hawk.