How about a thread that is specifically dedicated to updates regarding the current market situation?
Lady
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How about a thread that is specifically dedicated to updates regarding the current market situation?
Lady
This article has a great chart on the ETF market activity during the past week! :)
ETF Rewind - Week 6 (02/06/09)
By Jeff Peitsch | February 07, 2009
"Last week saw a powerful "stimulus induced" upswing that actually left the NASDAQ 100 positive on the year (QQQQ +7.9%). This was particularly impressive set against the backdrop of the highest unemployment levels reported since 1974 (US News - Labor Report).
(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)
In fact, every single one of the tracked sectors and styles ended higher on the week and near breakout levels. By the same token, as we head into the middle of the month with so many indices now well into overbought territory, much will clearly hinge on the market's reaction to Monday's Treasury Announcements and Stimulus Plan Vote (Bloomberg Links). Will February finally provide traders with a breakout of the multi-month range? With the economy still accelerating to the downside, bets will certainly be placed both ways.
Week Seven of 2009 features the following reporting calendars:
Enjoy your weekend!"
- Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar
- Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar
http://www.greenfaucet.com/earnings/...02-06-09/47101
Lady
Here's this week's market chart from Market Rewind.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFK...ek_7_Table.png(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)
http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/
Enjoy! :bigsmile:
Lady
Re: The above chart: Precious metals +340% risk/reward. I'm not sure what that means exactly, but it looks good. :)
This week's chart from Market Rewind:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFK...ek_8_Table.png(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)
"Only Precious Metals (DBP) and the Dollar (UUP) managed to post gains of +4.9% and +0.1%, respectively, on a global safety trade. The only other metric showing gains was the VIX (Implied Options Volatility), closing the week back near 50 and stretched +9.2% above its 15-day moving average.
In normal times, this would be a bullish indication, as would the majority of tracked securities showing near- and intermediate-term oversold price index readings (SPY RSI[2] = 1!). However, we are so overstretched to the downside -- this market is clearly broken. Some modicum of positive news flow will be required to turn this train wreck around going into the end of the month. Perhaps clarity on the banking situation will provide that; we'll just have to wait and see."
http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/
Enjoy!
Lady
I'm looking for a move above 778 on the S&P before the close, for confirmation of this rebound. It doesn't even have to close above 778. Just get over it intraday.
Just saw a 779+ print. Cool!
Yesterday's low was 752.89. Flirting with it today. A break would be bad news.
We must hold these lows, or else I'll be making a quick exit out of SSO :eek:
The Dow is down 50 and FAZ (3 X financials bear) is down 5% on the day. Financials should drop like a rock tomorrow.
Looks like the market is not liking the new plans for Citi.
So the S&P closed at 735, an important Fibonacci level. (Next Fib level is 665, by the way.) So I think there are going to be some buyers come Monday morning who will expect a bounce off that 735 Fib level.
Now the reason I care is that I'm in TZA (the small cap levered bear) at the moment. I am expecting the rise in the S&P to pull the small caps market up with it. And it's probably going to hit my TZA stop and knock me out of that ETF just before the bounce ends. :sick:
I'm trying to decide whether to move my stop and hope that Scottrade gets to it before my current stop triggers at market open, or whether to buy some TNA (the small cap levered bull) to hedge my way through the expected bounce.
I know how to pick markets, but entry/exits and stops are keeping my tuition payments to ETF Unniversity humming right along! :toung: Thoughts, anyone??
Lady
Lowering the stop, or selling at the open, may save you a little commission rather than buying the short ETF.
Based on volume, I do believe that we will see some sort of relief rally Monday or Tuesday, but am not expecting it to last (which could mean the bottom is in :D). If you don't mind a little pain, you might just hang on. This market requires wide stops, assuming you believe in your position.
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/022709b.gif
If I were to pick a stop for TZA unfortunately I would have to say 66 or lower, which may be a little too much risk for you, and can easily be hit with a good rally this week.
http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/022809.gif
Thanks for the quick reply and thoughtful opinion. :)
My current stop is set at about $71 and I'll bet it gets hit Monday morning because it's leveraged 3 to 1 with the small caps. And that's about as much pain as I'm willing to take on this ETF. Maybe I'll think about selling TZA, taking my small profit, and buying back in at the lower level. Because I still think that is a great ETF to be in for the intermediate term.
Lady
Mike Burk's 2/28 email weekend edition concludes with this statement:
"The market is extremely oversold and followed the average seasonal pattern for February during the 1st year of the Presidential cycle very closely. Seasonally, next week has been, on average, strong. A bounce over the next week or so would fit the seasonal pattern and relieve the oversold condition. After that the seasonal pattern and the high level of new lows make new index lows likely. I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday March 6 than they were on Friday February 27."
FWIW,
Lady
I am actually expecting a wild week, with an explosive rally in there somewhere. I'd like to be out of FAZ when it happens but I'm still selling rallies.
I'll probably take profits on at least half, maybe all, of the FAZ position if we gap down Monday.
UDN - but it's kind of thinly traded, but not terribly so. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=udn. I don't see any ultras.
ETF Rewind - Week 9 (02/27/09)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFK...ek_9_Table.jpg(Click image to enlarge)
http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/
Lady
Looks like a big 'ol gap up this morning, although it is not a gap on the chart. I'll be watching yesterday's S&P high of 711.67 for clues.
I believe we've been down something like 11 of the last 12 days, or something, and there is a gap open at 734.50. Perhaps that is a target?
I actually hope not. I am short BGU (3 X bull) this morning and if we do see a higher high over yesterday, I will start looking for the exit. I am using a "mental stop" just so the MM's don't go hunting.
I can't help to wonder, is there too much news? I know many are talking about and expecting a big wooosh, but if everyone already expects it, will it happen?
So many folks throw up comparisons to previous bear markets but one thing is different. During this bear market, we have an unprecedented level of world-wide news.
I have 2 TV channels dedicated solely to the markets. And if that isn't enough, I can download pod cast and watch them on my phone. Or perhaps I'm too busy to watch anything, so I download some MP3s and listen to those instead.
Don't even get me started on the Internet! We literally have thousands of news sources, forums, bloggers, fundamentalist's, and technicians to choose from.
But yea I'm still waiting for the wooosh :wacko:
Anyone found a good ETF for copper? The only thing I've found is JJC, a sparsely traded ETN. Or is a base metals ETF still our best bet if we want to look at copper?
Lady
The gap on the S&P 500 near 734 has been filled (today's high is 734.91). If the market doesn't stall here, a move to 740-745 (741 is resistance) would be about all I would expect.
Has anyone else noticed that ICE had a P&F triple top breakout yesterday? Any thoughts?
Lady
I don't usually post these charts in public, but this is from Fred's recent TSP report. The market strength chart has always been so intriguing to me but it is not as easy to use as it might look at times.
The strength chart (blue line) can lead the market (black line) by one to two weeks, but can be a lot less during a volatile market.
Fred showed this current rally on the chart a few weeks ago but asking him about it, he said that since it never made it above -0-, that it is not a measure of coming strength, just weakness subsiding. Well, that turned out to be an understatement and I did not take advantage of the rally.
http://www.etftalk.com/images/forum/031309a.gif
Now we see that, in the area of weakness (below -0-) the strength line is moving right back down. I would think that would start sometime next week, although the blue line did move higher for two weeks before peaking, and this rally is only one week long.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
ETF Rewind - Week 11 (03/13/09)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFK...k_11_Table.png(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)
Last week's bear-market rally leaving the S&P500 (SPY) higher by +10.4% makes the index's four-week loss of -9.0% all the more poignant. Highlighting the rotation into equities was the slight weakness in Bonds and Commodities (TLT -1.5%; DBC -0.4%).
Week Twelve of 2009 features several key Manufacturing, Housing, and Inflation reports, not to mention a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, as follows:
As much as we were long overdue this bounce, the ferocity of the minor recovery has nearly every major index, sector and style flashing overbought on the short-term Price Index, as highlighted in both the table above and in the charts below. A small pullback going into expiration next week -- finding support well above the prior lows -- before starting a second leg higher would be a healthy and desirable "pause that refreshes."
- Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar
- Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar
Hope springs eternal, except perhaps in China where "worry" over our economy has apparently been expressed (AP - Premier Worries; Bloomberg - Obama Expresses Confidence). Enjoy your weekend!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFK...eek_11_RSI.png
http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/
Lady
The woosh is going to happen, but for now everyone is fixated on short term trading because it's what worked the past 2 years. Just as soon as the herd piles onto something, it's bound to turn. Case in point, bear ETF's. It's just a matter of time.
I think I was having the same problem as you a while ago, information overload. Just remember 90% of the information you hear is from guys with agendas. In other words, they have a position and are trying to justify their position to you. At the end of the day, they don't have any more of a clue than we do. I've made drastic cutbacks, to include no more CNBC, and feel more in tune than ever. You've just gotta take a look at what you have that's duplicate or useless and cut it out.
Yikes! I've cut down my time reading Bloomberg every am, and am not quite as daily with ticker-forums as I was. Never did watch cnbc, not watching much TV these days, and don't get that channel anyway. Overload. Brainswamp. :wacko:
Thank goodness for DVRs. :)
I can get through 3 CNBC shows and PBS's Night business report in about 2 hours. But mostly I just leave it on while I'm reading various blogs.
I sleep with FOX Bulls & Bears on the TV Timer, and wake up to Blomberg/CNBC.
I seriously think the wife might set up an intervention.
I need to start collecting some quality books...
I'm guilty. I have cnbc on from the time I get up until Larry Kudlow is over about 11 hours later. I'm not listening to every word. As a matter of fact, I am usually wearing headphones listening to talk radio at the same time, unless I see someone worth listening to (ie Art Cashen) or some breaking news.
I liken it to watching a college baseball game between someone like Northern Iowa and Acron. I could care less who wins, as long as it's baseball, having it on in the background is comforting. :)
Is it just me or is today a weird day for the markets?
Markets down
Bonds up
Metals down
Financials up
It feels strange to me, but my expierence is limited so somebody will have to tell me if it's wierd or not.