Which ETFs look interesting today?
As I learn what is out there in the ETF universe, I discovered this 2/4/2009 article on Seeking Alpha. It was informative for me and I hope you enjoy it too.
ETF Ideas for a Time of Uncertainty
Investors and traders alike can profit by paying attention to equity sectors. We monitor sectors via our ETF universe. Every day we generate ratings for each ETF using a combination of Trend, Cycle, and a bit of Anticipation. Our model has a time horizon of about thirty days, drawing upon a sophisticated interpretation of market indicators. (For new readers, there is a more complete description of our methods and ratings at the end of the article.)
A Negative Picture
The main theme of our sector survey is negative. Only five ETFs earn a buy rating, which requires that the ETF meet two tests. A sector must have a positive strength rating on either a trend or cyclical basis. Second, it must not be in the "penalty box," where we put sectors that violate various technical criteria. You can think of it as a stop loss, but more sophisticated.
Three of the five sectors are inverse ETFs, so this is actually a negative signal. One of the two genuine long positions is the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX), which is a defensive play. The only true long is the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices Index Fund (IHI), which has a modest positive rating, perhaps spurred by Obama speculation.
...." [continued, and includes informative list]
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1183...of-uncertainty
Lady
Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?
I pay a lot of attention to health care costs. :( So I started wondering about health care ETFs. DBP is one I'm thinking of buying on the next pull-back. Or XLV. What do you think?
(I'd paste the charts, but as usual I can't get my screen snip to copy from the clipboard to the post. Hate those PEBCAC* errors! :embarrest:)
Lady
*PEBCAC: Problem exists between computer and chair. :rolleyes:
Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?
Not sure why (because of spring planting?), but agricultural chemical companies are starting to move higher. My MOO and the COW ETF, and just about any stock that sells, for example, potash.
For what it's worth,
Lady
Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
XL-entLady
Not sure why (because of spring planting?), but agricultural chemical companies are starting to move higher. My MOO and the COW ETF, and just about any stock that sells, for example, potash.
For what it's worth,
Lady
Except that COW is having a bad day today .... MOO is still up. and stocks like TRA and TNH.
Lady
Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
XL-entLady
Except that COW is having a bad day today .... MOO is still up. and stocks like TRA and TNH.
Lady
I have a time taking MOO and COW seriously. :D
There are several folks, including Jim Rogers, who think that the agriculture sectors will be huge. He said the farmers will be rich and driving the Maseratis while Wall Street suffers.
Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?
This article really caught my eye. Not sure which thread to put it in because it touches on several subjects, but it makes some interesting suggestions for ETFs and strategies. Enjoy!
http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2...an-cash-kings/
Long-Term Positions And Short-Term Trading, Plus The “Three Asian Cash Kings”
By Mario Cavolo on February 18, 2009
"Tom Lydon recently started another excellent article of his alluding to the death of the buy/hold strategy. And it leads to a question, especially as we’re all looking at what is probably going to be a plunge for the next several weeks. Is there any stock or ETF we should really be longterm long right now? Should we allocate 20-40-60% of our portfolio to longterm holds and swing trade with the balance?
If the answer is yes, then thoughtful analysis concludes taking longterm positions in the safest, beaten down dividend payers you can screen. For example, I’m holding Penn Virginia Resources Partner (PVR: 13.12 0.00 0.00%) (coal) Now that a plunge seems likely, I may have bought it $1-$2 too soon, but I bought it for the longterm and so I don’t really care about a smaller unrealized loss. Altria (MO: 15.53 0.00 0.00%) is the next that comes to mind.
Confirm as best we can a stock is a safe dividend and buy it soon with minimum downside risk. Yes, WAIT at the moment to see if we fall off the cliff first. Do NOT forget that even some great value low P/E safe dividend-paying stocks will have their prices beaten down to hell as the bear continues these few months. Some won’t budge and you’ll feel wise.
Regarding longterm ETF holds, we should look at healthcare, oil/energy. Recently, there’s attention toward the “Three Asian Cash Kings” China, Taiwan, Singapore, plus Brazil’s iShares MSCI Brazil index ETF (EWZ: 35.80 0.00 0.00%). These ETFs pay a healthy dividend.
I am compelled as a businessman living in China for almost 10 years to remind everyone of the amazing China FXI (FXI: 25.57 0.00 0.00%)/Taiwan EWT (EWT: 6.89 0.00 0.00%)/Singapore EWS (EWS: 6.05 0.00 0.00%) reality. Yes these three China/Asia markets are not decoupled from a further plunge which could easily happen, BUT these countries are CASH RICH to a degree that westerners truly do not comprehend. There is so much cash here, even in the hands of the lower middle class. They (approximately 100-300,000,000 Chinese, depending on who you ask) go about their business while all around them economics are melting down. Why would a person be that concerned if you also typically had well over $100,000 USD in the bank, owned two or more apartments mortgage free, and could comfortably live on a budget of less than $1000/month which includes eating out very often? Living 9 years ago in Chengdu, China, I had a close friend aged 25, who was the assistant principal of a local school on a salary of USD $250/month. Yet he had $10,000 in his account playing the stock market! Its a different world and mentality.
So position your longterm holds carefully and relax. Then, with precision and discipline, trade indexes, oil, gold/silver with the 2X/3X long and short ETFs such as FAS/FAZ, BGU/BGZ, EDC/EDZ, XLF/SKF, DGP/DZZ, DXO/DTO to swing trade or hedge your longterm holdings."
Lady
Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?
And here's another article that will help me to populate my long-term watchlist. It has some interesting charts that will not copy over into the post, so if the following excerpt intrigues you please follow the link to see the entire article.
Lady
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1214...f-style-sector
What’s the Best U.S. Total Market ETF? Style? Sector?
by: Index Universe February 19, 2009
"If you're looking at January performance, the answer is clear: the ELEMENTS Benjamin Graham Total Market ETN (BVT).
And not just by a little. BVT posted a positive 6.44% return in January, outpacing the next closest competitor (the iShares Russell 3000 Growth ETF, IWZ) by more than 11%.
...
This raises an absolutely critical point: the choice of ETFs matter. And once you move beyond total market funds into more specific styles or sectors, the choice of ETFs matters even more.
The table below compares the January returns of the top and bottom performing ETFs for each of the 11 size/style boxes. The variance in one-month returns ranges from 3.95% (for Mid-Cap Growth ETFs) to 28.09% (for Small-Cap Value ETFs). In half of the categories, at least one ETF delivered a positive return, which is impressive when you consider that January was the worst month for U.S. equities in history....."