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Thread: Everything OIL.

  1. #11

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    Default Re: Everything OIL.

    Way to stick to your plan and not try squeezing out a few extra %.

    This is unreal with oil. Huge technical resistance ahead, and it doesn't even appear to be basing yet, but I can't get over that MACD divergence.

    How about that huge volume move in UGA today to rise above the 50 DMA? Any thoughts?
    "Don't let your highs get too high and don't let your lows get too low." Bullitt’s Market Blog

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  3. #12

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    Default Re: Everything OIL.

    UGA looking good bullitt. I use the exponential MA's and it's still under, but the chart looks like it's puting in a higher low, the PMO is starting to move up (but no crossover buy signal yet). Looks like $25 is the key for the longer-term trend.
    -- Tom | My Trades

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  5. #13

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    Default Re: Everything OIL.

    I don't want to fall in love with this thing, and I have no position in it (yet), but UGA....

    Higher lows, big volume on up days, above the 50 DMA which is trending upwards and look at that base. What are we thinking here guys, buy on a breakout over 24.50?

    UGA leads USO, so we could also look to get in on some pin action if UGA breaks out by going long USO or UCO.
    "Don't let your highs get too high and don't let your lows get too low." Bullitt’s Market Blog

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  7. #14

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    Default Re: Everything OIL.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    I don't want to fall in love with this thing, and I have no position in it (yet), but UGA....

    Higher lows, big volume on up days, above the 50 DMA which is trending upwards and look at that base. What are we thinking here guys, buy on a breakout over 24.50?

    UGA leads USO, so we could also look to get in on some pin action if UGA breaks out by going long USO or UCO.
    Yep, I've been looking hard at UGA. It's been on my watch list for about a month. All the DMA's are doing what I wanted them to, we're going into the summer season of high gasoline use, and today we had a bit of a pullback so it's not at the top of the bollinger band. The only down I can see is we're overbought on the SStoch, however we're just starting to come back down on the RSI(2).

    My finger is on the button ....

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  9. #15

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    Default Re: Everything OIL.

    Oil & Gas Industry

    Posted Wed Mar 18, 03:41 pm ET
    Posted By: Sheraz Mian

    "While downside risks remain, the overall outlook for the oil sector has improved in recent days, owing largely to the tentative signs of a supply response to anemic global demand. With demand falling sharply due to worldwide economic problems, inventories started building at a faster rate since last fall.

    In response, OPEC (which accounts for roughly 40% of all oil supplies) announced a number of production cuts. While there was ample skepticism early on regarding OPEC’s ability to enforce the announced cuts, recent evidence suggests a significant level of compliance within the cartel.

    As such, while oil prices over the coming weeks will track the outlook for the global economy, the commodity’s improved supply situation is expected to help prices consolidate around current levels.

    Natural gas, on the other hand, is a North American story and developments here over the coming months will determine its outlook.

    On balance, we see more upside potential than downside risk in the sector.

    OPPORTUNITIES

    The risk-reward trade-off for a number of sub-sectors remains very compelling, in our view. The large-cap integrateds, oilfield services and offshore drilling sub-sectors offer lucrative opportunities at current levels.

    The relatively low-risk energy conglomerate business structures of the large-cap integrateds, with their fortress balance sheets, ample free cash flows even in a low oil price environment, and growing dividends are well suited for uncertain times like these. Our preferred names in this group remain Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).

    The underlying business fundamentals of oilfield service companies, particularly those with an international focus and deepwater-capable drilling contractors still remain robust. We like Schlumberger (SLB) and Baker-Hughes (BHI) in the oilfield service space, and our preferred deepwater drillers remain Transocean (RIG) and Diamond Offshore (DO). We like Pride (PDE) as an emerging and relatively under-appreciated deepwater driller.

    WEAKNESSES

    We strongly feel that industry players in the servicing and drilling ends of the business with substantial natural gas-focused and North America-centric operations should be avoided.

    The two major sub-sectors that fit that description would be the onshore drillers and service players with heavy pressure pumping operations. We believe that pricing and margins for operators in these two sub-sectors will remain under pressure through 2010, even as the outlook for natural gas price improves.

    Halliburton (HAL), the largest North American pressure pumping player, and BJ Services (BJS), one the largest in this category, need to be avoided. We also have Sell recommendations for Nabors (NBR) and Patterson-UTI (PTEN), two major North American land drillers."


    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1833...B+Gas+Industry

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  11. #16

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    Default Re: Everything OIL.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    What are we thinking here guys, buy on a breakout over 24.50?
    Looks like UGA moved past the 24.50 today, but not with much authority. We might have to wait until tomorrow or next week for confirmation.

    PXJ its taking another run at the 50 DMA on decent volume today too.
    "Don't let your highs get too high and don't let your lows get too low." Bullitt’s Market Blog

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  13. #17

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    Default Re: Everything OIL.

    There it goes. UGA made a solid breakout today in a weak market above the 24.50 priceline on huge volume. Maybe some minor resistance at 30'ish area, then there's 200 DMA to contest with, but there is some serious room to run here.

    I'll look at this over the weekend, but I might set a limit in the low 25's. Once these IBD style breaks happen, you really can't get too cheap when it comes to a buying pullback or else you'll be one of the ones stuck chasing it.
    "Don't let your highs get too high and don't let your lows get too low." Bullitt’s Market Blog

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  15. #18

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    Default Re: Everything OIL.

    Bullitt; Do you believe UNG may move up in sympathy with the energy complex. Good volume today, and it is now above its 20dyma. Not to expensive either. Looks very interesting to me.
    Timmy, who goes over your tax return?


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  17. #19

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    Default Re: Everything OIL.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    There it goes. UGA made a solid breakout today in a weak market above the 24.50 priceline on huge volume. Maybe some minor resistance at 30'ish area, then there's 200 DMA to contest with, but there is some serious room to run here.

    I'll look at this over the weekend, but I might set a limit in the low 25's. Once these IBD style breaks happen, you really can't get too cheap when it comes to a buying pullback or else you'll be one of the ones stuck chasing it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Here$14U View Post
    Bullitt; Do you believe UNG may move up in sympathy with the energy complex. Good volume today, and it is now above its 20dyma. Not to expensive either. Looks very interesting to me.
    14U, I don't have Bullitt's experience or knowledge but for whatever it's worth, and that may not be much, I looked at both UNG and UGA a couple of days ago and thought that UGA's chart looked far stronger. I bought UGA on 3/18. So after Bullitt has time to study the charts this weekend, I'll await his report back to us with great interest.

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  19. #20

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    Default Re: Everything OIL.

    I've been waiting for UNG to rise for a few weeks now, but yes, that volume up day was one of the biggest since September for UNG. I like the base in UGA better. UGA is in stage one of a new bull market, which is the basing phase. UNG really hasn't done much basing and has been hit pretty hard on selloffs. However, if it manages to blow above that 50 DMA on the kind of volume it had two days ago, it could be either a short term rally or a trend change. Basic indicators don't show UNG being even close to overbought yet either.

    UGA- I would have like to seen a bigger move than 1.8% on volume like that but I still think it's a good idea in the low 24's. It might sell off some early going if people look at the indicators and see overbought or it might just gap and go. Overbought really doesn't mean much in an IBD style breakout.

    Bottom line is all commodities are going higher. We're probably seeing the last of gasoline below $2 across the country just as Americans continue to pile back into SUV's and Trucks with 0% financing. With OPEC cutting (or at least saying they are cutting) once again, this should drive up UNG with the transport costs of it alone. Both UGA and UNG could be something to buy and hold onto into the summer months on a sell the news things.

    Quick story: What got me thinking about UGA is on my drive home from work, I drive a busy strip in which I pass about 10 gas stations in 2 miles. I began taking notice of the price of gas at each individual station as I drove along when the prices were dropping hard and then tried to find an ETF that tracks gasoline. So, one way to track this in real life would be to pay attention to the price of gas at the pump.

    Good luck traders.
    "Don't let your highs get too high and don't let your lows get too low." Bullitt’s Market Blog

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