Gold

[etftalk]

Intermediate-term starting to look a little more bullish here. If the inverse H&S pattern continues, we could see 1000 in 6 weeks or so - then a breakout during the summer.

[alevin]

In our... chart, above, is plotted data at which we have looked before. This time it has been rearranged to give a forward-looking picture. The solid green line is the monthly average of U.S. $Gold price, and uses the right axis. Line of red circles is the inflationary component of U.S. money supply growth. For that we used an annualized six month rate of change. It is plotted versus the left axis. Additionally, it is advanced twelve months. The far right hand red dot is data for April 2009 but plotted as if it influences the $Gold price in April 2010.

Previously, we used the acceleration in U.S. monetary inflation to identify lows, or short-term bottoms, in the price of $Gold. In this chart we are attempting to use the peak rate of inflationary monetary growth to project out the price of $Gold. Each of the two previous highs in $Gold were associated with highs in inflationary U.S. monetary growth of twelve months before.
Were no other factors operating on $Gold, this chart suggests a low by September. It also suggests a new high that all of us would enjoy by this time next year. $Gold may be moving through the last great buying opportunity this Summer, assuming all other factors unchanged or the same.
However, not all factors are the same this year. ......
Chinese people have one of the highest saving rates in the world. That high savings rate exists for a variety of reasons. Will Chinese savers respond to the news of the PNB buying Gold? How will Chinese investors respond to a new high in Chinese ¥Gold? And keep in mind, more wealth will be created in the next decade in China than has ever been created in any single decade. Investors need to now watch two Gold charts, one denominated in their home currency and one in Chinese Yuan.

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2009/0427.html

Where is FRIXXX when you need him? I haven't figured out yuan yet, much less "gold in yuan", guess I'd better start.

[XL-entLady]

I just sold the last of my precious metals, so that is a definite signal for the rest of you that it will start going up!

Lady

[justbizness45]

I just sold the last of my precious metals, so that is a definite signal for the rest of you that it will start going up!

Lady

I'll take it!! I still have a position in SLV @ 13.00. My physical silver was bought @ 10.00 and 12.50. Still waiting for it to go up, up, up!!

[alevin]

To go along with the article I posted earlier today-here's a website to help keep track of gold in yuan and gold in $. Still have to do a y/oz vs. $/oz ratio calculation to see relative direction and magnitude of forex change in gold priced in yuan vs. dollar. It can be done-even w/o Frixx, just takes a little more work is all.

example tonight spot gold NY is $6125.65yuan/oz vs. spot gold NY $898.3/oz. exchange ratio is $.1466/yuan = $14.66/100 yuan. As the ratio goes up, yuan gets more valuable, price of gold goes down in yuan, goes up in $terms (if I'm wrong, somebody please tell me!).

If ratio goes down, yuan becomes less valuable, price of gold goes up in yuan, price goes down in $terms (If I'm wrong, somebody please please tell me!).

Now what that all means to the price of tea in China, I haven't even begun to figure out.

[justbizness45]

Mojo over on TSP Talk posted this. Interesting data.

It just recently came to my attention from two different confidential sources that JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have been buying large amounts of Calls in gold and silver. This made me put on my gumshoes and take a serious poke around the COMEX option open interest once again.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=OGR&t=LIST&m=26882541&l=0&pd= 0&r=0

[Bullitt]

Reverse H&S still intact for GLD. I suspect most buying this week was a result of Paulson and Co's recent quarterly disclosure of their GLD holding though.

I think we're going to see the Reverse H&S work out some time over the summer.

[XL-entLady]

Has anyone invested in CEF as opposed to GLD and SLV? CEF holds gold and silver bullion both. And it's still cheap. Thoughts anyone?

Lady

[etftalk]

I haven't, but it sounds like an interesting option.

[Bullitt]

CEF currently trades at a 9% premium to NAV. Not that it's a bad thing, but I only buy those closed end funds when they trade at a discount. If gold sells off hard, this could possibly drop, but I wouldn't count on it.

Good thought though with Canada and their commodities. Also there's EWC which has some more volume and isn't trading to more than .34% of a premium. I read that the oil sands can produce oil at lower prices now than a year ago.