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Thread: Gold

  1. #21

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    Feb 2009
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    Default Re: Gold

    Gary at the Smart Money Tracker is super bullish on precious metals. Here's his latest piece:

    "I'll be the first to admit that gold sentiment is getting too bullish. At some point gold is most definitely going to have to correct and wipe out a big chunk of this bullishness.

    However an interesting correlation has developed recently. Gold instead of trading inversely to the dollar has developed a tight positive correlation to the dollar. That has very bullish implications for gold.

    The reason being that the dollar is now threatening to break out of the consolidation zone of the current T1 pattern. Once this happens we should see a second leg up in the dollar roughly equal to the first leg. That gives us a target of 93ish on the dollar chart.

    As long as the positive correlation remains in play that would suggest a huge move higher for gold ... and don't even get me started on silver."

    http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  3. #22

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    Default Re: Gold

    Ahh, gold. Such a tough one. It always seems to me that gold always trades in crazy fashion because you have to figure most of the guys who continuously pump gold are so nervous about the prospects of the human race in general.
    "Don't let your highs get too high and don't let your lows get too low." Bullitt’s Market Blog

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  5. #23

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    Default Re: Gold

    I have what is probably a 'rookie' question. An Credit Suisse gold ETN with the symbol GOE is going through the roof today. I'm talking up 50+%!

    I tried to pull up a chart in stockcharts but can't. My broker software isn't giving me a good enough chart to decide if there is still a reasonable entry point.

    Anyone know why I can't find it in stockcharts?

    And I've never purchased an ETN before, because if I remember right you don't actually have fee simple interest in anything if the company implodes.

    So does anyone have any thoughts they want to share? GOE a good idea? Bad idea?

    TIA!
    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  7. #24

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    906

    Default Re: Gold

    It looks to be VERY thinly traded; only 60K shares traded as of 2:20 PM ET, although it says the average is over 2 Mill shares / day.

    Looks like it had an interesting day - to say the least.

    -- Tom | My Trades

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  9. #25

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    Default Re: Gold

    More gold companies, each with a bit different slant on the market.

    http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2...t-gold-debate/

    The Great Gold Debate

    By Michael Vodicka on February 18, 2009

    "Gold continues to be a hot topic in the investment community as the precious commodity edges back towards its historical $1000 per ounce mark. As is the case with most conversations about markets, one side is bullish and the other side is bearish. In this instance, each side has a compelling argument.

    “Gold Bugs”
    The gold bugs are bullish on gold because of concern about inflation and a weak U.S. dollar. Much of this concern relates to the recent spending habits of the Federal Government, which is running record budget deficits in an attempt to stimulate the battered economy. Gold bugs are suggesting this will lead to runaway inflation as the printing presses move into high gear.

    The Bears Strike Back
    But the bears say this is hog wash, and that the recent deflationary cycle should continue to weigh on asset prices, including gold. Zacks analyst Paul Ramen underscored this notion, saying that “The USD will strengthen due to its safe haven status and rising confidence in President Obama. Inflation is nonexistent.”
    Ramen also notes that slowing GDP growth in India, the worlds #1 consumer of gold, could have an impact on demand.
    There is no way good way to settle the debate other than to step aside and let the forces of the market take over. For the time being, the bears are on the sidelines, waiting for prices to drop to initiate. But for the gold bugs who are ready to add to their positions, here are some destinations to invest in gold.

    Gold Investment Destinations

    Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD: 49.10 -0.98 -1.96%) posted solid fourth-quarter results on Feb 9 and painted an optimistic earnings projection, pointing to its strong balance sheet and expanding margins as primary drivers.

    Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY: 9.47 +0.09 +0.96%) provides some diversity because it mines copper in addition to gold. Either way, Yamana is bullish on 2009, with CEO Peter Marrone recently saying the company is “very well positioned for 2009,” due to its low cost basis.

    Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX: 38.01 +0.72 +1.93%) has broad mining exposure all across the world in five different continents. The company’s low cash costs of $390 to $415 per ounce should help it stay ahead of the profit curve for another year.

    SPDR Gold Shares (GLD: 96.43 +0.98 +1.03%) is a gold ETF that is tied to underlying gold prices. This is a great way to get exposure to gold without going through the cash markets and buying bullion.

    Conclusion
    All market participants have unique investment objectives. But regardless if you are bearish or bullish on any particular segment of the market, it makes sense to stay informed."

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  11. #26

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    Default Re: Gold

    Saw this on the TSP site from H14FU:

    "There seems to be some doubt, from what I read, that GLD the gold ETF does not have the physical gold backing that it should. I have read that GTU (Central Gold Trust) is backed by gold bullion. I will be tracking GTU now rather than GLD."

    Anyone holding GLD or know if it's true??

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  13. #27

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    Default Re: Gold

    Quote Originally Posted by justbizness45 View Post
    Saw this on the TSP site from H14FU:

    "There seems to be some doubt, from what I read, that GLD the gold ETF does not have the physical gold backing that it should. I have read that GTU (Central Gold Trust) is backed by gold bullion. I will be tracking GTU now rather than GLD."

    Anyone holding GLD or know if it's true??
    I'm not holding GLD. When I clued in on the gold rush it was already too expensive for me. I saw 14U's post too and looked at GTU today, and it's about half the price per share of GLD. I thought that was interesting. I started thinking of selling one of my lagging positions and buying GTU on the next entry point. Still thinking ....

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok


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  15. #28

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    Default Re: Gold

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    I'm not holding GLD. When I clued in on the gold rush it was already too expensive for me. I saw 14U's post too and looked at GTU today, and it's about half the price per share of GLD. I thought that was interesting. I started thinking of selling one of my lagging positions and buying GTU on the next entry point. Still thinking ....

    Lady
    It's currently 20% above it's 200 EMA. What are you looking for on a entry point?

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  17. #29

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    Default Re: Gold

    Quote Originally Posted by justbizness45 View Post
    It's currently 20% above it's 200 EMA. What are you looking for on a entry point?
    If I look at the 30 minute chart, it looks like the last hour of the day it quit riding the top of the bollinger band and pulled back just a bit. Unless there is a lot of buying at the open to shoot the price back up, that $42 level its at now might be as good as any. But please remember that, although I've been playing with the S&P for decades, I only have a few months under my belt at playing with EFTs. I'm a rookie too!

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  19. #30

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    Default Re: Gold

    If you've become a gold bug, you may be interested in this opinion received yesterday from one of my guys:

    "...I’m starting to get quite a few emails from subscribers trying to pick the top in gold. I suspect quite a few got thrown from the bull this morning. Remember this is what bull markets do. They go up and they make it as hard as possible to stay on board for the ride.

    Sure gold is overbought. Sure sentiment is getting too bullish. I’ve got news for you bull markets get overbought. Then they get even more overbought. Sentiment gets bullish in bull markets then it gets even more bullish. Just wait till we enter the third phase. We are going to see bullish sentiment like we’ve never seen before.

    The bottom line is we have a target on the dollar index [estimated to be 94-95 in a previous message. Lady]. Gold is trading with a positive correlation to the dollar. Unless that correlation all of a sudden breaks down we simply don’t have any reason to sell any of our precious metal positions until our target is reached...."

    For what it's worth,

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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