Gold

[etftalk]

Interesting. It's the reason many of us miss big moves. I have been looking for a pullback in gold myself. I feel the same way about the dollar - due for a pullback, but maybe it will keep going??

I just wonder what will happen to gold if the dollar does indeed pullback? 1200 maybe?

[XL-entLady]

Yesterday's Ord Oracle on where they think GDX (gold miners, which is currently at 35.64) is headed:

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/inde...e=post&id=9840

"A Head and Shoulders bottom started to develop back in August 2008 on GDX. In mid January a Sign of Strength was performed through the Neckline of this Head and Shoulders bottom and confirms the pattern and also confirms the Neckline breakout. Since mid January the market has worked higher and volume has been increasing and a bullish sign and suggests this market has energy to move higher. Support now comes in near 32 on GDX. This Head and Shoulders pattern has an upside target near 54 which is the old highs set back in March 2008."

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Why I bought more GTU and SLV this morning:

"Some economists have been wrong-footed on gold, we think, by treating the metal as a commodity as opposed to a currency. A synchronised global financial crisis and depression is, of course, consistent with falling commodities prices. But exactly the same environment, as we can now see, is hugely positive for gold, what Nathan Lewis in his recent book on the subject referred to as "the once and future money". "

http://www.greenfaucet.com/asia/dilb...d-theory/08160


Lady

[Bullitt]

What do you guys think of the drop in GDX yesterday? Did it reach an IT top and where do you see support? Currently sitting on it's 50 DMA.

Too many gold bulls out there in my opinion so I think a good shake is in the works.

[etftalk]

I would say it is a buy w/ tight stop (maybe 30.50-31.00). Still above MA's and trend pretty much intact, but getting close to breaking. PMO gives sell. It either snaps back here or breaks. Risk / reward wise, it's probably worth a play.

Take a look at Ebb's GDX trading this year. He seems to have it down pretty good.
http://www.etftalk.com/forum/showthr...=1073#post1073

[XL-entLady]

I sold my GDX gold miner yesterday because trailing stop was triggered. Made an okay profit, not great after commissions but okay. I'm buying back in as soon as StochRSI moves above 20 (currently at zero for the second day).

Lady

[XL-entLady]

2/25/09 Ord Oracle weighs in on GDX:

"Back in mid January, GDX jumped the Neckline of a Head and Shoulders bottom with a Sign of Strength and confirmed the Head and Shoulders bottom. The Neckline should now hold as support on pull backs. Over the last couple of days GDX has been pulling back and nearing the Support near 32. Today’s decline showed less volume then yesterdays, which implies the decline is weakening. Today GDX closed near 33 and not at support yet. We would like to see Full Stochastics reach below 20 and RSI approach 40 when GDX reaches near 32 to help confirm that the 32 range will hold. We would also like to see a positive divergence between GDX and Price relative to Gold ratio, where GDX outperforms gold for the short term. The Head and Shoulders pattern on GDX has an upside target near 54 which is the old highs set back in March 2008."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

Lady

[etftalk]

Think I will take a shot.

[XL-entLady]

"...Over the last 4 years gold has been moving in 8-month chunks, which suggests that it's under the direct influence of Martin Armstrong's "Pi Cycle", where he identified market timing patterns lasting 3,141 days -- i.e., Pi x 1000 days, or 8.6 years. Armstrong also identified a corresponding 8.6 month cycle and a 4.3 month half-cycle, and it looks like gold is faithfully following this template.
This timing cycle is suggesting that the month of February should end up as the half-way break in this latest 8-month growth phase, which should then take off higher from March to June. We'll have to pay attention to more serious weakness in March -- although I'm definitely not expecting this -- as this could be an early sign that the next 4 month period will be sideways or down.
Getting back to current situation, the big question now is whether gold will bounce at $930, or down at $900.
I actually have a very important fractal target down at $890, so if gold does break down further and head for this area it should briefly overshoot $900, and that will be an excellent opportunity to re-enter back into an initial long position...."

http://safehaven.com/article-12699.htm

Lady

[etftalk]

GDX is playing out nicely (thanks bullitt!). Support has held so far and a stop below the low of the recent reversal seems reasonable. Target, low 40's.