Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 24

Thread: Which ETFs look interesting today?

  1. #1

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    654

    Default Which ETFs look interesting today?

    As I learn what is out there in the ETF universe, I discovered this 2/4/2009 article on Seeking Alpha. It was informative for me and I hope you enjoy it too.


    ETF Ideas for a Time of Uncertainty

    Investors and traders alike can profit by paying attention to equity sectors. We monitor sectors via our ETF universe. Every day we generate ratings for each ETF using a combination of Trend, Cycle, and a bit of Anticipation. Our model has a time horizon of about thirty days, drawing upon a sophisticated interpretation of market indicators. (For new readers, there is a more complete description of our methods and ratings at the end of the article.)

    A Negative Picture
    The main theme of our sector survey is negative. Only five ETFs earn a buy rating, which requires that the ETF meet two tests. A sector must have a positive strength rating on either a trend or cyclical basis. Second, it must not be in the "penalty box," where we put sectors that violate various technical criteria. You can think of it as a stop loss, but more sophisticated.

    Three of the five sectors are inverse ETFs, so this is actually a negative signal. One of the two genuine long positions is the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX), which is a defensive play. The only true long is the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices Index Fund (IHI), which has a modest positive rating, perhaps spurred by Obama speculation.
    ...." [continued, and includes informative list]

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1183...of-uncertainty

    Lady


  2.  
  3. #2

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    654

    Default GLD, TBT and UDN

    GLD, TBT and UDN:


    Three ETF Opportunities for a Steepening Yield Curve

    "Anyone still arguing in favor of deflationary forces resulting from the financial crisis should think again. Here’s why…
    A report submitted to Treasury Secretary Geithner (by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) acknowledges that the steepening yield curve may be a direct by-product of the extraordinary funding requirements in 2009-2010.
    Funding needs are based upon expectations of weaker economic growth and Congress and the Administration’s stimulative policy actions. Increased TARP expenditures, potential FDIC guarantees, and additional fiscal "stimulants" could push government funding needs to $2 trillion.
    Under such a scenario, Americans are looking at Treasury funding requirements being the largest percentage of GDP since the post-war era.
    Intermediate-term technical analysis of long-term treasury yields (see charts below) supports the probability of rates rising above 4% before encountering any significant resistance. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar’s days of basking in the "flight-to-safety" trade appear to be over as (see charts below) the Dollar is no match for long-term rising rates on a relative basis.

    The bottom line: If this situation persists, expect the Gold Trust ETF (GLD) and the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TBT) to continue their superior market performance. Another security that stands to benefit under these same market conditions is the U.S. Dollar Bearish Fund ETF (UDN). If the dollar breaks down, the UDN should appreciate due to its negative correlation to the U.S. Dollar index."


    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1191...le_lb_articles

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

  4.  
  5. #3

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    654

    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    I pay a lot of attention to health care costs. So I started wondering about health care ETFs. DBP is one I'm thinking of buying on the next pull-back. Or XLV. What do you think?

    (I'd paste the charts, but as usual I can't get my screen snip to copy from the clipboard to the post. Hate those PEBCAC* errors! )

    Lady

    *PEBCAC: Problem exists between computer and chair.
    Last edited by XL-entLady; 02-08-2009 at 06:01 PM.
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

  6.  
  7. #4

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    654

    Default Emerging Market ETFs

    http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2...etfs-for-2009/
    Which ETFs the Pros are Buying

    For investors, the message is clear. Our emerging markets investments must be concentrated in countries that will not be badly affected by the decline in foreign capital inflows, preferably where domestic savers have piggybanks that are large enough to fund expansion locally.

    In particular, without delving into particular stocks, the following country-specific exchange traded funds (ETFs) are worth looking at:
    • The iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ: 38.99 +0.48 +1.25%) has net assets of $3.4 billion, a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.0, and a dividend yield of 6%. Money Morning Contributing Editor Horacio Marquez recently recommended this Brazilian ETF in this weekly “Buy, Sell or Hold” series.
    • The iShares MSCI Chile investable Index (ECH: 36.18 -0.18 -0.50%) has net assets of only $112 million and a P/E of 13. However, Chile is interesting because it built up a reserve fund of $21 billion (12% of GDP) during the years when copper prices were high - it is thus not dependent on foreign-fund inflows.
    • The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI: 26.81 +0.35 +1.32%) invests in the 25 largest Chinese companies. Net assets are $5.9 billion, its P/E ratio 10, and its yield 2.7%.
    • The iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT: 7.21 +0.10 +1.41%) has net assets of $1.3 billion, a P/E of 9 and a yield of 8%. Taiwan is highly liquid, with large reserves, a high savings rate and almost no foreign debt
    • The iShares MSCI Singapore Index (EWS: 6.29 -0.01 -0.16%) has net assets of $800 million, a P/E of 9 and a yield of 8%. Like Taiwan, Singapore is highly liquid, with large foreign exchange reserves and little debt. Taiwanese and Singapore companies may indeed benefit from the liquidity crunch by finding attractive investment opportunities in regional cash-short emerging markets with high growth potential, such as Vietnam.
    Don't know if you're interested in emerging markets. I'm looking at China.
    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

  8.  
  9. #5

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    654

    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    Not sure why (because of spring planting?), but agricultural chemical companies are starting to move higher. My MOO and the COW ETF, and just about any stock that sells, for example, potash.

    For what it's worth,
    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

  10.  
  11. #6

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    654

    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    Not sure why (because of spring planting?), but agricultural chemical companies are starting to move higher. My MOO and the COW ETF, and just about any stock that sells, for example, potash.

    For what it's worth,
    Lady
    Except that COW is having a bad day today .... MOO is still up. and stocks like TRA and TNH.

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

  12.  
  13. #7

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    906

    Default Re: Emerging Market ETFs

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    Don't know if you're interested in emerging markets. I'm looking at China.
    Trader Fred has been asking me to talk more about the India, China and Russian economies as a place for possibly the next long term boom. I am a little reluctant, not because I don't think they will be good investments, but because I am very weak on fundamentals. If I see a good China ETF chart I will trade it, but I will have to force myself to make a long-term investment in anything. It's not my style.

    I gave him a list a about a dozen ETF's that might work. He may take a couple of the less thinly traded ones and apply his system to it.
    -- Tom | My Trades

  14.  
  15. #8

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    906

    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    Except that COW is having a bad day today .... MOO is still up. and stocks like TRA and TNH.

    Lady
    I have a time taking MOO and COW seriously.

    There are several folks, including Jim Rogers, who think that the agriculture sectors will be huge. He said the farmers will be rich and driving the Maseratis while Wall Street suffers.
    -- Tom | My Trades

  16.  
  17. #9

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    654

    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    This article really caught my eye. Not sure which thread to put it in because it touches on several subjects, but it makes some interesting suggestions for ETFs and strategies. Enjoy!

    http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2...an-cash-kings/

    Long-Term Positions And Short-Term Trading, Plus The “Three Asian Cash Kings”

    By Mario Cavolo on February 18, 2009
    "Tom Lydon recently started another excellent article of his alluding to the death of the buy/hold strategy. And it leads to a question, especially as we’re all looking at what is probably going to be a plunge for the next several weeks. Is there any stock or ETF we should really be longterm long right now? Should we allocate 20-40-60% of our portfolio to longterm holds and swing trade with the balance?

    If the answer is yes, then thoughtful analysis concludes taking longterm positions in the safest, beaten down dividend payers you can screen. For example, I’m holding Penn Virginia Resources Partner (PVR: 13.12 0.00 0.00%) (coal) Now that a plunge seems likely, I may have bought it $1-$2 too soon, but I bought it for the longterm and so I don’t really care about a smaller unrealized loss. Altria (MO: 15.53 0.00 0.00%) is the next that comes to mind.

    Confirm as best we can a stock is a safe dividend and buy it soon with minimum downside risk. Yes, WAIT at the moment to see if we fall off the cliff first. Do NOT forget that even some great value low P/E safe dividend-paying stocks will have their prices beaten down to hell as the bear continues these few months. Some won’t budge and you’ll feel wise.
    Regarding longterm ETF holds, we should look at healthcare, oil/energy. Recently, there’s attention toward the “Three Asian Cash Kings” China, Taiwan, Singapore, plus Brazil’s iShares MSCI Brazil index ETF (EWZ: 35.80 0.00 0.00%). These ETFs pay a healthy dividend.

    I am compelled as a businessman living in China for almost 10 years to remind everyone of the amazing China FXI (FXI: 25.57 0.00 0.00%)/Taiwan EWT (EWT: 6.89 0.00 0.00%)/Singapore EWS (EWS: 6.05 0.00 0.00%) reality. Yes these three China/Asia markets are not decoupled from a further plunge which could easily happen, BUT these countries are CASH RICH to a degree that westerners truly do not comprehend. There is so much cash here, even in the hands of the lower middle class. They (approximately 100-300,000,000 Chinese, depending on who you ask) go about their business while all around them economics are melting down. Why would a person be that concerned if you also typically had well over $100,000 USD in the bank, owned two or more apartments mortgage free, and could comfortably live on a budget of less than $1000/month which includes eating out very often? Living 9 years ago in Chengdu, China, I had a close friend aged 25, who was the assistant principal of a local school on a salary of USD $250/month. Yet he had $10,000 in his account playing the stock market! Its a different world and mentality.

    So position your longterm holds carefully and relax. Then, with precision and discipline, trade indexes, oil, gold/silver with the 2X/3X long and short ETFs such as FAS/FAZ, BGU/BGZ, EDC/EDZ, XLF/SKF, DGP/DZZ, DXO/DTO to swing trade or hedge your longterm holdings."

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok


  18.  
  19. #10

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    654

    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    And here's another article that will help me to populate my long-term watchlist. It has some interesting charts that will not copy over into the post, so if the following excerpt intrigues you please follow the link to see the entire article.

    Lady

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1214...f-style-sector
    What’s the Best U.S. Total Market ETF? Style? Sector?

    by: Index Universe February 19, 2009

    "If you're looking at January performance, the answer is clear: the ELEMENTS Benjamin Graham Total Market ETN (BVT).
    And not just by a little. BVT posted a positive 6.44% return in January, outpacing the next closest competitor (the iShares Russell 3000 Growth ETF, IWZ) by more than 11%.
    ...

    This raises an absolutely critical point: the choice of ETFs matter. And once you move beyond total market funds into more specific styles or sectors, the choice of ETFs matters even more.

    The table below compares the January returns of the top and bottom performing ETFs for each of the 11 size/style boxes. The variance in one-month returns ranges from 3.95% (for Mid-Cap Growth ETFs) to 28.09% (for Small-Cap Value ETFs). In half of the categories, at least one ETF delivered a positive return, which is impressive when you consider that January was the worst month for U.S. equities in history....."
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

  20.  

Similar Threads

  1. Going short today
    By Gumby in forum Shorting
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 12-14-2009, 09:13 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •