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Thread: Which ETFs look interesting today?

  1. #11

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    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    The following article contained too many images in it's original form, so if it is of interest to you please follow the associated link to view the entire thing.


    What the Stimulus Plan Means for ETFs, Sector by Sector

    by: Tom Lydon February 19, 2009


    "The stimulus plan is out, signed and ready to go, and the money is accounted for. Billions are spread out across several sectors, and the new funds could soon impact exchange traded funds that target those sectors.
    Total spending is $317.2 billion. Across the sectors, which are some of the ETFs that could be reaping some rewards as the money kicks in? Whatever happens with these ETFs in the coming months, be sure to follow the trends and have an entry (and exit) strategy. We don’t get in until a fund is above its long-term trend line (the 200-day moving average).


    The following sector rundown includes spending provisions of the bill, not tax provisions, according to CNN Politics.
    • Transportation, housing and urban development; $57.1 billion iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund (IYR): down 13.3% over three months; down 20.3% over one month.
    • iShares Dow Jones Transportation (IYT): down 19.2% in the last three months, down 8% in the last week.

    • Federal and State Government; $45.472 billion iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund (MUB): up 0.5% over three months; up 0.02% in one week.

    • Commerce, Justice and Science; $17.842 billion Biotechnology HOLDRs (BBH): up 4.1% over three months; up 0.1% over the last 1 week.

    • Defense and Security; $16.4 billion PowerShares Aerospace and Defense (PPA): up 5.6% over three months; down 3.0% over one week.

    • Agriculture and Rural Development; $15,986 billion PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA): down 5.2% over three months; down 6.3% over one week.

    • Energy and Environment; $98,234 billion Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (GEX): down 0.3% over three months; down 8% over one week.

    • Labor, Health and Education; $66.15 billion Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV): up 4.2% over three months; down 2% over one week."

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1215...ctor-by-sector

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  3. #12

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    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    Here is a short excerpt from an article that had quite a few interesting little nuggets. If you have time to do any reading today I recommend that this one be high on your list.

    Gold-Backed ETFs on a Roll

    by: The Report March 04, 2009

    "....You’ve identified a number of core themes for the overall portfolio. One is overweighting for the major caps, another is international, and a third is gold....."

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1240...etfs-on-a-roll

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  5. #13

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    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    I don't know if you've already seen this or not. I found it to be very informative, so I wanted to make sure you've all seen it too. "ETF Lab, March 2009" published 3/5/09.

    http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/inde...=post&id=10109

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  7. #14

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    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    Very cool info. Thanks!
    -- Tom | My Trades

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  9. #15

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    Default Which ETFs look interesting for THE NEXT DECADE??

    This article is about gold, silver, oil, the dollar and copper, so rather than put it on the gold, silver or oil threads I stuck it here. I thought the information was very informative, and hope you enjoy it too.

    March 09, 2009
    Gold and Oil Poised to Rise amid General Market Crash
    by Roy Martens

    "It's March already and the financial markets are on fire, negatively that is!
    The world indices are at lows not seen for over 15 years and the fear is that there's still much more to come. Maybe we'll see a bounce first but this bear market is far from over.
    The worldwide economy keeps on deteriorating further and further and at a pace not seen in recent history. Where will this end we ask ourselves? Well, I don't think anybody really knows because the current situation is unprecedented.
    Interest rates are being lowered all over the globe in order to keep the financial system going. The big question is will it work? The problems in the system are so enormous that all the measures taken up until now have failed, so why keep on throwing good money after bad?
    The possibility of deflation is now looming. Consumers are slowing spending at a rising pace, so prices have to be lowered in order to persuade the consumer to buy products again... this combined with the very low interest rates and the creation/printing of new money will without any doubt lead to hyperinflation further down the road, a perfect environment for precious metals.
    Any decline in these metals over the coming months or years should be taken as a last opportunity to preserve some of your wealth and livelihood. Don't be fooled by the powers that be. They want to preserve the current status quo as long as possible but just look at the writing on the wall. The times they are a-changin' and they are changing fast. Make sure that you will not be left behind once the precious metals train starts its decade long journey.
    All charts are courtesy of Stockcharts.com
    GOLD

    Gold is within a blue rising channel and is putting in a strong performance. It even briefly breached the upper channel line, a showing of strength.
    The recent drop was expected and the 50 d. MA did the job, holding firm and allowing Gold to use it as a springboard for another rise. If Gold manages to break above the 14 d. MA the way is clear for a new high. Should however the 14 d. MA prove to be too strong to overcome, a test of the lower channel line (currently at $900) can be expected.
    For now, the chart favours of a rise to the top end of the channel, currently at $1,025.
    SILVER

    Like Gold, Silver is showing strength. It reached the resistance at $14 which was the signal for a correction, and the RSI showed the way by getting extremely overbought.
    This correction tested the 50 d. MA and currently Silver is challenging the 14 d. MA again. A break above it will clear the way for another run at the $14 resistance and most likely even a run all the way to the $16 level.
    The conditions in the chart are perfect for this bullish scenario to unfold. RSI is bottoming at the 50- level, Buying power is triggering a new buy signal, and the MACD is curling up again in positive trend territory. So far so good!
    OIL

    Oil seems to have turned the corner. We see a nice saucer shape bottom, which in many cases is very reliable. It is also on the verge of breaking above the newly formed resistance line (magenta) which should clear the way for a new rise towards the mentioned resistance levels in the chart.
    This upcoming month could trigger another important buy signal, a crossing of the 14 d. MA above the 50 d. MA, confirmation that the trend has changed from negative to positive.
    The future for oil looks very good based on this daily chart and higher prices are expected.
    USD

    Despite the poor economic conditions, the USD is showing strength against other currencies. It managed to get above the last high at 88, building on its current trend of higher lows and highs.
    Normally a break of a prior high will lead to fresh buying. However, there's a bearish pattern showing up in the chart in the form of a rising wedge. Such a pattern is often followed by a decline back towards the base of the pattern, which in this chart is at 78 (a break below the lower pattern line is needed for this expectation).
    The USD can avoid this bearish outcome by breaking higher past the upper pattern line thus making the pattern invalid. For now the outlook remains positive, at least as long as the USD manages to stay above the 14 d. MA.
    COPPER
    [Please note that I had to remove the 'copper' chart because of the image limit for posts. You can find this chart by following the link below. Lady]

    The Copper chart is improving and just like Oil we see a saucer shape bottom occurring in the chart. Copper recently took out the newly formed resistance level formed over the last couple months, indicating that positive pressure is building.
    Both of the MA's are starting to rise now in support of a further advance, and the other technical indicators are in a very good position to support such an advance.
    All in all we should see higher prices this upcoming month."

    http://safehaven.com/article-12788.htm

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  11. #16

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    Default Re: Which ETFs look interesting today?

    "Financials, in today's world, are almost entirely speculative. In contrast, the fact that Utilities (NYSE: XLU) have sold off to new 52-week lows below 22.7 seems strangely out of line with a strong infrastructure relationship. Then again, the broader markets are only batting 2/15 in the last 15 trading days... almost as bad as Alex Rodriguez in post-season baseball.
    So why in the world should utility ETFs like SPDR Utilities (NYSE: XLU) or iShares DJ Utilities (NYSE: IDU) go anywhere? Because on March 5, an unknown institutional player placed the largest ever option trade in the history of trading XLU options. 142,000 call options were purchased at an April strike price of 25.
    The implication? Someone is either covering short positions or expecting new legislation to send the utilities market dramatically higher in a short period of time."

    http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical...t-higher/25002

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  13. #17

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    Default The Ultimate Commodities ETF Guide, Part I

    I'm a firm believer that commodities will be the next big mover as inflation begins to heat up. With that in mind, I found this Seeking Alpha article to be very informative. Because of its length, I'll break it into two posts.

    The Ultimate Commodities ETF Guide


    "Commodities have received greater exposure in recent years thanks to a major bull rally in commodity prices coupled with new products designed to make these securities available to common stock investors. Many investors are familiar with precious metals and energy exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), PowerShares DB Oil (DBO), U.S. Oil (USO) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV), but they now have the option of investing in a variety of individual commodities and have a choice between several indexes that offer unique commodity weightings.


    When oil prices rallied to $150 per share and corn prices advanced on ethanol demand, investors looked to grab a slice via ETFs and exchange-traded notes (ETNs). When commodities slid at the start of a major global recession, prices fell as much as 75 and 80 percent. Recently, several commodities have climbed off their lows, and some investors are starting to look at the sector in anticipation of an economic recovery. Commodities tend to outperform during the early phases of an economic expansion, when the rising demand outstrips the supply, due to recessionary cutbacks, and during the later stages, when demand again outstrips available supply. The point of this article is not to assess whether the economy is on the verge of a recovery—that’s a topic unto itself—but to compare the relative strengths of different indexes and investment approaches.


    Any decision to invest in commodities should begin with the index funds. For the vast majority of investors, indexing makes the most sense. As with equity indexes, the securities providers have designed a plethora of ways to gain commodity exposure.


    Broad Indexes. These commodity indexes offer exposure to the three subsectors—agriculture, energy and metals. The broadest of the broad indexes may be the ELEMENTS Rogers International Commodity Index Total Return ETN (RJI). According to the prospectus, the fund balances commodity consumption patterns across developed and developing countries. Its twenty agricultural components compose 34.9 percent of the index, ten metals compose 21.1 percent and six energy commodities make up 44 percent of the index. The nineteen-component iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return ETN (DJP) invests 36 percent in agriculture, 30 percent in metals and 34 percent in energy.


    iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (GSG) invests in the S&P GSCI Total Return Index, as does iPath S&P GSCI Total Return Index ETN (GSP). (The difference between the two funds is that one is an ETF and the other is an ETN.) Twenty-four components comprise these funds, of which 24 percent is in agriculture, 11 percent is in metals and 65 percent is in energy.


    Finally, PowerShares offers the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund (DBC), the least broad index. It holds six components, two each of the three subindexes: 22.5 percent agriculture, 22.5 percent metals and 55 percent energy. All these funds charge 0.75 percent in annual fees.
    Beyond the level of exposure to subindexes in each fund is the exposure to each individual commodity. Gold, for instance, ranges from 14.22 percent of RJI and 14 percent of DBC (though the index base weight is 10 percent) to 3.4 percent of GSG and GSP and 8.2 percent of DJP.


    DBC has the largest trading volume among its broad-based commodity index peers, with well over a million shares trading on an average day. RJI, DJP and GSG have also proved to be liquid products, with average daily trading volumes of approximately 300K, 470K and 430K, respectively. GSP, while sharing the same index as its ETF equivalent, GSG, has failed to attract the same attention, with just 50K trading on the average day. DJP, GSG and GSP are created in 50K units, while RJI and DBC are created in 400K and 200K units, respectively.


    Performance-wise, the difference between the weightings has led to divergent returns. Since October 2007, when the latest of these funds was introduced, DBC has been the best performer, down 31 percent, compared with a 49 percent drop for GSP. RJI and DJP finished in the middle but closer to DBC. Year to date, RJI is the best performer, up nearly 5 percent, while DJP and DBC are flat. GSG and GSP are down about 5 percent (through May 4). Assuming there is not a single breakout commodity that skews the indexes, these indexes will trade in the same general direction, and in the long run, the difference between them will be smaller than the difference with equity and bond funds.


    Last but not least, ELEMENTS also offers a long/short commodity fund: ELEMENTS S&P Commodity Trends Indicator - Total Return (LSC). The fund is currently neutral on energy (it cannot be short energy) and long on grains, industrial metals, precious metals, cotton and sugar. It is short livestock, cocoa and coffee. The index uses a moving exponential average to determine whether to go long or short in each sector, and when it is neutral on energy, it distributes the weight “proportionately to the other five sectors.” The fund isn’t a hedged fund, however, that goes long and short at the same time—it could be all long or all short/neutral based on market conditions. Investors interested in more information should read the prospectus, which offers a detailed explanation of the index methodology.
    The strategy paid off last year, and LSC rallied from September until December. Since its inception last July, LSC beat the other long indexes by 20 percent, with a return of just under 0 percent. It has underperformed this year because the fund is short in some sectors, causing it to miss the full effect of the rallies in March and late April. Compared to the other broad indexes, it is the worst performer in 2009, down more than 10 percent.


    Sector Indexes. ELEMENTS and iShares shine in the sector index space. ELEMENTS offers investors the exact components of the broad index in the same proportional ETN allocations: RICI Total Return Agriculture (RJA), RICI Total Return Metals (RJZ) and RICI Total Return Energy (RJN).
    iPath offers a suite of seven subindex ETNs: one energy (JJE), one broad agriculture (JJA) with three subsectors (JJG, JJS and COW), plus two metals (JJM and JJP).


    PowerShares offers agriculture, base metals, precious metals and energy ETFs. (DBA, DBB, DBP and DBE).


    Individual Commodities. Gold, silver, oil and natural gas were among the most popular single-commodity funds and were introduced around the same time as the broad indexes. More recently, iPath has introduced a suite of individual commodity ETNs filling in the gaps: four soft commodities, five industrial metals and platinum (PGM).


    Two commodities gaining popular attention in recent weeks are copper and natural gas. iPath DJ-AIG Copper Total Return (JJC) rallied 50 percent this year, thanks to heavy buying from Chinese importers, though the rally may not last because Chinese thirst for copper is not insatiable. U.S. Natural Gas (UNG) is down 37 percent this year on weak demand, but it has been a topic of conversation among investors looking to pick a bottom in the commodity. From March 2 through May 4, U.S. Oil (USO) gained 25 percent, but UNG fell 15 percent, a difference of 40 percent. While it looks like an attractive divergence, crude oil demand is relatively inelastic, with most of the fuel going for transportation (70 percent). Thirty-four percent of natural gas goes to industrial demand, with another third to residential and commercial and a final third to electric power.


    [More in next post]


    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365...ties-etf-guide

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  15. #18

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    Default The Ultimate Commodities ETF Guide, Part II

    [continued from last post]

    Leveraged Funds. Following the popularity of ProShares double-long and double-short equity ETFs, PowerShares launched a suite of ETNs based on the Deutsche Bank commodity indexes used for its ETFs. The ETNs replicate PowerShares ETFs with single- long funds, as well as single-short, double-long and double-short (the exception is gold; PowerShares does not offer a single-long ETN). One positive thing about the leveraged commodity funds is that the price movement of commodities has been less volatile. In the short term, the funds have sometimes traded such that the single-short outperforms the double-short, but over the long term, these funds have separated as expected. They still suffer compounding effects and the returns may deliver more or less than twice the leverage.


    A big reason for the PowerShares funds’ strong performance is that they track the monthly performance of the underlying index, which itself has performed well because the Deutsche Bank Optimum Yield Indexes do not blindly roll contracts; instead, they select the contract that maximizes backwardation (futures are lower than the spot price) or minimizes contango (futures are higher than the spot price). ProShares uses the DJ-AIG indexes, also used by iShares, for its leveraged funds and offers double the daily change in prices, the same as for its equity funds.


    If you’re an individual investor looking for commodity exposure but have little knowledge of the sector, stick with the broad indexes. Exposure isn’t necessary for a portfolio, but besides a play on an economic recovery, the broad indexes also offer inflation protection. The governments of the world can print paper currency on a whim, but they can’t print wheat, oil or copper.


    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365...ties-etf-guide

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok


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  17. #19
    alevin Guest
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    Default Re: The Ultimate Commodities ETF Guide, Part II

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    [continued from last post]





    If you’re an individual investor looking for commodity exposure but have little knowledge of the sector, stick with the broad indexes. Exposure isn’t necessary for a portfolio, but besides a play on an economic recovery, the broad indexes also offer inflation protection. The governments of the world can print paper currency on a whim, but they can’t print wheat, oil or copper.


    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365...ties-etf-guide

    Lady
    Love it Lady, Seeking Alpha rules. I've learned so much there that's saved my butt more than once.

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  19. #20

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    Default Biotech and Gold Miners

    Most interesting read of the day

    The link below says that the big money is now betting on biotech and gold miners.

    This is a long article so I'm just going to post a paragraph that summarizes the article and if it piques your interest you can click on the link. I thought the information was very interesting - - now I just need to decide what I'm going to DO with the info!

    "...For the short and medium-term, it’s best to ride along with the big money. Think of the old adages like “the trend is your friend.” Right now the trend is toward healthcare (biotech specifically) and assets which offer inflation protection (gold stocks have been exceptionally possible). We’re sure to find success in the long growing trends like inflation protection and healthcare in the months and years ahead...."

    http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2...s-betting-big/

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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