Day to Day Market Talk

[etftalk]

I don't usually post these charts in public, but this is from Fred's recent TSP report. The market strength chart has always been so intriguing to me but it is not as easy to use as it might look at times.

The strength chart (blue line) can lead the market (black line) by one to two weeks, but can be a lot less during a volatile market.

Fred showed this current rally on the chart a few weeks ago but asking him about it, he said that since it never made it above -0-, that it is not a measure of coming strength, just weakness subsiding. Well, that turned out to be an understatement and I did not take advantage of the rally.



Now we see that, in the area of weakness (below -0-) the strength line is moving right back down. I would think that would start sometime next week, although the blue line did move higher for two weeks before peaking, and this rally is only one week long.

[XL-entLady]

Saturday, March 14, 2009

ETF Rewind - Week 11 (03/13/09)


(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)
Last week's bear-market rally leaving the S&P500 (SPY) higher by +10.4% makes the index's four-week loss of -9.0% all the more poignant. Highlighting the rotation into equities was the slight weakness in Bonds and Commodities (TLT -1.5%; DBC -0.4%).



Week Twelve of 2009 features several key Manufacturing, Housing, and Inflation reports, not to mention a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, as follows:

• Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar
• Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar

As much as we were long overdue this bounce, the ferocity of the minor recovery has nearly every major index, sector and style flashing overbought on the short-term Price Index, as highlighted in both the table above and in the charts below. A small pullback going into expiration next week -- finding support well above the prior lows -- before starting a second leg higher would be a healthy and desirable "pause that refreshes."
Hope springs eternal, except perhaps in China where "worry" over our economy has apparently been expressed (AP - Premier Worries; Bloomberg - Obama Expresses Confidence). Enjoy your weekend!





http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady

[Bullitt]

I can't help to wonder, is there too much news? I know many are talking about and expecting a big wooosh, but if everyone already expects it, will it happen?

I have 2 TV channels dedicated solely to the markets. And if that isn't enough, I can download pod cast and watch them on my phone.

The woosh is going to happen, but for now everyone is fixated on short term trading because it's what worked the past 2 years. Just as soon as the herd piles onto something, it's bound to turn. Case in point, bear ETF's. It's just a matter of time.

I think I was having the same problem as you a while ago, information overload. Just remember 90% of the information you hear is from guys with agendas. In other words, they have a position and are trying to justify their position to you. At the end of the day, they don't have any more of a clue than we do. I've made drastic cutbacks, to include no more CNBC, and feel more in tune than ever. You've just gotta take a look at what you have that's duplicate or useless and cut it out.

[XL-entLady]

...I've made drastic cutbacks, to include no more CNBC, and feel more in tune than ever. ...

I know what you mean about CNBC. I've quit watching it too, because it was starting to feel like "financial Jerry Springer."

Lady

[alevin]

Yikes! I've cut down my time reading Bloomberg every am, and am not quite as daily with ticker-forums as I was. Never did watch cnbc, not watching much TV these days, and don't get that channel anyway. Overload. Brainswamp.

[JTH]

Thank goodness for DVRs.

I can get through 3 CNBC shows and PBS's Night business report in about 2 hours. But mostly I just leave it on while I'm reading various blogs.

I sleep with FOX Bulls & Bears on the TV Timer, and wake up to Blomberg/CNBC.

I seriously think the wife might set up an intervention.

I need to start collecting some quality books...

[etftalk]

I'm guilty. I have cnbc on from the time I get up until Larry Kudlow is over about 11 hours later. I'm not listening to every word. As a matter of fact, I am usually wearing headphones listening to talk radio at the same time, unless I see someone worth listening to (ie Art Cashen) or some breaking news.

I liken it to watching a college baseball game between someone like Northern Iowa and Acron. I could care less who wins, as long as it's baseball, having it on in the background is comforting.

[JTH]

Is it just me or is today a weird day for the markets?

Markets down
Bonds up
Metals down
Financials up

It feels strange to me, but my expierence is limited so somebody will have to tell me if it's wierd or not.

[XL-entLady]

Is it just me or is today a weird day for the markets?

Markets down
Bonds up
Metals down
Financials up

It feels strange to me, but my expierence is limited so somebody will have to tell me if it's wierd or not.

Not just strange. Surreal. My TNA that I was worried about is doing fine and my FAZ has triggered a stop that I thought was ridiculously low when I set it. "The markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent."

Lady

[Gumby]

Not just strange. Surreal. My TNA that I was worried about is doing fine and my FAZ has triggered a stop that I thought was ridiculously low when I set it. "The markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent."

Lady

Markets are crazy....something big is about to happen......just don't know what it is.
I can't believe the FED has something amazing to announce.