Day to Day Market Talk

[Ryan]

Is it just me or is today a weird day for the markets?

Markets down
Bonds up
Metals down
Financials up

It feels strange to me, but my expierence is limited so somebody will have to tell me if it's wierd or not.

What is moving these financials? I'm very hesitant getting in. Do we buy this rally or sell it?

[XL-entLady]

Do we buy this rally or sell it?

I think that is a question that can only be answered in hindsight. JMO. I've got a trailing stop on my TNA, but I'm not selling it.

Lady

[JTH]

Here are the levels I'll be watching for confirmation of a pause, pullback, or reversal. Although I'm still deeply indebted to FAZ, even if I did have cash, I doubt I'd be ready to short with SDS just yet. But that's just me, so take the chart for what it's worth...

779 Support within the ascending channel, at the 20 SMA, and support from the previous February 26 swing high (pink line) preceding the cliff dive.

757-763 Possible support (purple circle) with the 50 & 200 SMA crossover.

751 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and February 26th daily high

Any further then that and the doom & gloom will take care of itself...

Attachment 49

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p93145187539&a=16 3530215

[XL-entLady]

Today's blog entry from John Lee (written last night)

"We are flagging and, at this stage, it is a bull flag indicating additional upside sometime soon (I did not say tomorrow, I said soon, for those who are illiterate). I remain in all cash until we gap up/burst out to the upside or break the flag and sell-off. The market had a terrific run and it needs some time to properly consolidate those gains. As the consolidation develops, it will show appropriate entry signals.

Tomorrow, we will likely continue the flagging action. The SPX finds immediate support at 780 and 775 and very strong immediate resistance at 800. If you are going to day trade, just remember that consolidation days get choppy. Also, do not forget about quadruple witching. You might as well go take the day off and ride some horses like I did last Friday.

I suggest keeping an open mind if you are thinking in the intermediate-term. We could be forming the bullish broadening wedge pattern. This downward coil will produce a ForceTM spike if/when it breaks out above the 50-day MA. If that occurs, it will furious and immediate. Likewise, if we breakdown completely, the bottom of the wedge would be at around 600. Just FYI.

You can see a various time corrections, an ascending triangle, and presently, another time correction. After a series of time corrections, you usually encounter a more deeper price correction, not to be confused with a sell-off. A possiblity is that one may occur between the 50- and 30-day MA's on the SPX. If we form a doji, it'll likely be a large time corrective flag. "

http://www.greenfaucet.com/blogs/the-exception

Lady

[JTH]

No matter what the markets do, they can't change the fact that it's Friday!!!

Woo wooo

Attachment 52

[XL-entLady]

No matter what the markets do, they can't change the fact that it's Friday!!!

Woo wooo

LOL! When you're retired, every day is Saturday.

It will be interesting to see if your support line holds. That could give a hint of what next week will bring.

Have a great weekend!
Lady

[XL-entLady]

ETF Rewind - Week 12 (03/20/09)


(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)
"Last week's Relative Strength Index (RSI) charts (below) show the extremes the markets moved to on the Federal Reserve's surprise 'reflation' announcement before pulling back on Expiration Friday (Bloomberg - Fed Aims to Ease; Wachovia - Implications for $1.25T Purchase).

Nevertheless, the S&P500 (SPY) finished higher by +1.5%, although the real stealth winner over the last four weeks has been Emerging Markets (EEM +11.1%), receiving an added boost from the US Dollar pullback (UUP -3.3%). Commodities have also seen a strong move higher during the last month (DBC +12.8%).

Week Thirteen of 2009 features Durable Goods, Housing, Gross Domestic Product and Personal Spending reports, among others, as follows:

• Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar
• Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar

Traders will also be reading Monday's finalized Treasury Plan with a keen eye (Bloomberg - Geithner Finishing Touches). Will the Treasury finally come through for the markets?"

http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady

[etftalk]

A rally back up to the resistance (~800). This is either a great selling opportunity or the bulls are about to change everything.

I feel like I am always wrong at these market junctures so I don't trust my call. Everything I view suggests that the market should head down from this level, but is this new $1 trillion infusion enough to break the charts?

[JTH]

I feel like I am always wrong at these market junctures so I don't trust my call. Everything I view suggests that the market should head down from this level, but is this new $1 trillion infusion enough to break the charts?

You are not wrong Tom, I'd pit you against theose over-hyped CNBC guys anytime. I still can't believe Guy was calling SPX 900 last week. If I've learned anything here, it's that how I react to the market is more important than what the market does.

As for the "yet again" Fed-induced rally, the real market will eventually correct itself. Sorry for all the chart post whoring...

Attachment 68

[JTH]

SPX & SLV have surpassed it's previous weeks highs.

FAS, ERX, have not and their volume is declining.

FAZ has not tested it's lows and volume is declining.

GLD is acting like it never got out of bed this morning.