Day to Day Market Talk

[XL-entLady]

SPX & SLV have surpassed it's previous weeks highs.

FAS, ERX, have not and their volume is declining.

FAZ has not tested it's lows and volume is declining.

GLD is acting like it never got out of bed this morning.

SPX and SLV are doing well because people think the stimulus is going to kick industrial metals into high gear.

FAS may have already run its course from the 'Geithner Goose.' FAZ will come back when people decide that today wasn't a magic fix. And they'll bring out the wooden stake and garlic necklace.

GLD won't have a good day when there is bull market euphoria. But when people start grasping the magnitude of the inflation around the corner you better be on that train or you'll be under it.

Just my two cents,

Lady

[etftalk]

If the S&P closes in negative territory today, it will look a lot like an outside reversal day.

[JTH]

If the S&P closes in negative territory today, it will look a lot like an outside reversal day.

Does the daily candlestick look like an inverted hammer to you?

[etftalk]

I'm not very fluent in candlesticks, but it kinda looks like a spinning top to me.

[XL-entLady]

Read this for good analysis of today's moves!

http://www.greenfaucet.com/blogs/the-exception

No time to say more right now, sorry.

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Saturday, March 28, 2009

ETF Rewind - Week 13 (03/27/09)


(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)Several economic data points suggesting a slowing in the pace of our nation's economic decline, together with more details on the TALF Program, provided the fuel for another broad-based advance that left the markets up for the third week in a row and uniformly positive on the month (NASDAQ - Treasury Unveils Program).
The S&P 500 (SPY) finished the week higher by +6.4%, now up +11.2% over the last four weeks. In fact, the technology laden NASDAQ 100 closed higher on the year -- not a small feat given where the markets were at only a short while ago. Said data points included Existing and New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and Gross Domestic Product.
While encouraging in many respects, not all the data points were rosy, including a worse than expected decline in Personal Income (even as Spending rose -- hmm...). With first quarter earnings nearly on deck, analysts will no doubt be pondering how these early indicators may translate to a trough earnings scenario, as well as to the prospective pace of growth ahead. I expect there will be heavy brooding over this point in the coming weeks by a market that has so quickly rebounded from its recent lows.

Week Fourteen of 2009 features another busy week of key economic reports, culminating in the closely watched Jobs Report, as follows:

• Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar
• Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar

Changing topics, much has been written about the value of tracking price versus longer-term moving averages. Research has shown that semi-active portfolio management using more difficult to "game" secular trends -- is helpful in reducing draw-downs and volatility, while also enhancing returns and assisting in identifying the strongest performing indices for rotational purposes.
Mebane Faber, a fellow asset manager, author of World Beta, and proponent of long-term rotational timing methods, reports that his readers have very few resources to easily track this key statistic. (He has written an excellent introductory white-paper on the topic, which may be found here. I will post additional research links next week.)
I am therefore pleased to announce the addition of this metric to the Weekly ETF Rewind. Note under the "Price Change" header the new "10-Month" column. This provides the percentage difference between the last closing price and the trailing simple moving average of the prior ten 20-day end periods (not the 200-day moving average, although both may be effective). The next column shows the "Rank" order of these results across all thirty or so tracking indices. Positive differences are indicated as green, while negative differences are shown as red. Are you surprised by the top ranked security (DBP +6.0%)? How about the fifth (QQQQ -11.3%)?
I hope that longer-term investors find this to be a helpful addition. Enjoy your weekend!



Never Investment Advice






http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Today's "Market Rewind" post contains some real nuggets. If you have the time, please dissect the post immediately below this one carefully. Especially note the addition of two columns to the chart, the 10 month column and the ranking column. And take time to follow the Faber link and read his white paper on SMA timing. Interesting stuff!

Enjoy your Sunday!

Lady

[alevin]

Thanks Lady, I just started looking at the Omega column today too, and researching what that's all about. makes me go Hmm, glad I don't have to do all the math on that one. Looking at that and the rankings. Makes me glad I went IBB and GLD. GLD stayed above the 50 week MA last week, along with right on the 50d MA. Is that a bull flag forming on the weekly chart? I'm not very good at those yet. I'm still a little over 1/3 cash at this point, waiting for clearer signals before I sell anything or buy anything else. Trading costs, need to recoup them, not add to deficit.

[Uptrend]

Hi All.l Trying a tightrope image. Feel that way sometimes. By the way I am holding all cash: TSP G and and my long market positions are closed out. Had a great March and looking for more. I think caution is advised this week. I will not trade until I see confirmation of the market direction, other than possibly a day trade.

[etftalk]

Glad to see you here Uptrend!