Day to Day Market Talk

[JTH]

Anyone remember the last big gap down follwed by a big red candlestick?

What do you think?

Attachment 82

[etftalk]

Looks familiar. The market doesn't usually rebound sharply from drops like this. It's the dead cat theory. If the cat drops from the 30th floor, it isn't going to giddy-up any time soon. It will be a good test for the folks who think this is a new bull market.

[JTH]

I never seriously pretend to know what the charts will do next. Having said that, i will be a doom and gloomer until I squeeze that last lemon drop out of FAZ...

Attachment 90

[JTH]

20 & 50 SMA crossed under 200 SMA on the 15min chart.

Attachment 91Worth mentioning?

[etftalk]

This dead cat had some legs I guess. It's an inside day so far, but the buying seems relentless.

[etftalk]

As soon as I wrote that above, the market started to lose steam.

Up 100 now with 14 minutes to go. Place your bets!

[JTH]

As soon as I wrote that above, the market started to lose steam.

Up 100 now with 14 minutes to go. Place your bets!

I was just about to say "wow did we hit the gap and drop like a rock?"

Edit to add "I was almost smart enough to take advantage of that"

[alevin]

Don't know when I started reading DecisionPoint regularly but sometime in the past year someone pointed me to it. Their latest market analysis of ETF performance was updated today. Very very very few buy signals short AND longer term both. Looks like I'm going to put some cash into gold miners along about now. Notice the SELL/SELL signals on silver? Signals based on Price Momentum indicators. If get a Buy/Sell pair on the same ETF, it means maybe a whipsaw or trend change. Full range of ETF flavors analyzed on the website. I just picked a meaningful few here for me. More where they came from.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/Spider.html

___________short/long (trend signals)
Gold Warn! SELL/BUY
Gold Miners BUY/ BUY
Silver ETF SELL/SELL

[XL-entLady]

"...So -from a historical and statistical perspective- probabilities and odds regarding those setups listed at top of my post are indicating a probable short-term pullback early next week, but we may see another (or a continuation of the) run-up in the markets after the short-term pullback has run it’s course, especially with respect to the strong breadth we’ve experienced during the last couple of sessions (and which might not disappear without showing it’s strong hand again any time soon)."

http://tradingtheodds.wordpress.com/

Lady

[XL-entLady]

Capture the Residential Real Estate Market With New ETFs

April 29, 2009 at 2:00 pm by Tom Lydon

"The initial public offerings (IPOs) for the new MacroShares real estate exchange traded funds (ETFs) are finally taking place.

The highly anticipated auction of MacroShares Major Metro Housing Up (UMM) and MacroShares Major Metro Housing Down (DMM) began on April 28 and will run through May 5 at 1 p.m. ET, according to Globe NewsWire. The initial offerings of both UMM and DMM will occur simultaneously.

Liam Denning for The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. residential real estate was still valued at $18.3 trillion at the end of 2008, according to the Federal Reserve. The brainchild of economist Robert Shiller, they will offer investors a way of betting on rising house prices by buying “Up” shares, or expressing pessimism via “Down” shares, with no actual physical housing to back them.

The ETFs will be tied to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Home Price index. When the Up and Down shares float, proceeds will be invested in U.S. government bills to ensure liquidity. If the index moves up, the trust behind the Down shares will shift a corresponding portion of its assets to the Up shares trust, raising the net asset value underlying the Up shares. The prices should follow.

There are few alternatives for investors who want exposure to the residential housing market – real estate investment trusts (REITs) focus on commercial property, and homebuilders don’t give perfect exposure. Investors who want more direct access to housing prices could find these funds attractive."

http://www.etftrends.com/2009/04/cap...-new-etfs.html

We've been able to invest in commercial real estate with REITs for quite some time. It's about time someone did residential stuff too.


Lady