alevin's Account

[alevin]

Watched that 200 MA line this morning re ATN. Bumping up close but hasn't made it there yet. 17% in 2-3 days ain't bad 'tall, but its been wavering this morning like it doesn't want to cross that 200MA...soooo I decided to let the winner run a bit longer, but Still hauled back on the reins some. Something about pigs makes me nervous right now....don't want to eat any, or something like that. Bird in hand?

Sold 2/3 of my position this morning, left 1/3 to run and I hope also capture some of the dividend payout due this month. Once the sale settles, I can load up on one of the other items I've got my eye on-maybe even capitalize on a general market drop this month? maybe. will see.

[alevin]

I'm supposed to have some tradeable cash back in my account by Wednesday am, if not tomorrow am, so was looking at some more of my single stocks tonight (to see if they still look pretty good) that are on my list of possibles based on value criteria (and sector criteria too-Lady confirmed sector strength with one of her posts today-materials and industrials, as well as select energy stocks). I found something that surprised me, a pattern I saw over and over in the weekly charts-I sold most of my ATN last week, but hung onto some for the coming dividend this month. I may finish selling my ATN and BP this week and call it good for a bit-sit in cash again.

Look at the slo-sto and % short interest. Nearly every stock I looked at had the short interest shoot up at the same angle, either at beginning of April or about the 3d week of April, while slosto has shot up and is cruising along about 80-100 on nearly every chart I looked at tonight that are recent value stocks, not all are dividend stocks however. I don't thinkthe % short interest is related to dividends coming up, either, since they are quarterly and pattern didn't show up in Feb, which was the last declared dividend for the ones I looked at. Market ramp? market poof?

[alevin]

trying to decide whether its time to unload the remaining ATN. Trendline is turning down from high (been tracking the broader market trendwise). Fundamentals are that dividends were withheld this month, pending merger with related company that will essentially become a growth stock rather than a dividend stock. Will issue slightly more shares of new company relative to existing shares of ATN. I just missed opportunity to become part of shareholder lawsuit by 2 days. If I'd bought 2 days earlier, I could sue for breach of fiduciary re existing shareholders who were expecting the dividend. As is, if they win and I'm still holding, should make stock price go down, but dividends will still get paid? OTH, if shareholders lose, the stock price still goes down due to lawsuit defense expenses? Is that likely, or would the suing shareholders eat the full legal costs?

OTH, the new company is parent to other aspects of oil and gas industry via pipelines and etc., so I'd get a more diversified exposure to oil and gas as commodity, just by owning the one new company. I only hold 50 shares, so the risk is relatively small total $wise, but %wise risk/rewardwise for $invested, somewhat bigger. Anybody see anything else to consider?

[alevin]

Well, I'm still on the fence whether to sell the remainng ATN or not. I looked at the Ichimoku for DDG (1x inverse oil and gas) and decided to try to take it for a hedge today, rather than give up the ATN, but I put my limit order in about 6c too low and never budged when ticker started going back up again. Didn't want to chase it. day order only, so maybe I get to try again tomorrow.

BP is showing a slight decline as is the DBC today, but I'm not ready to give them up yet either. I've got my eye on another energy play that's really cheap already and came down a bunch today-its a biodiesel play and domestic China at that. think I'll use that as a diversifier and an average-downer play, rather than give up the ATN growth stock that it's becoming. The China stock has a small dividend, nothing like ATN, but...it really moved in that last rally and Motley Fool CAPS people have it in their radar scope too.

Ticker symbol is GU for anyone interested. It's definitely a "value" play and moving back into even better value territory as of today-of course it laso became a penny stock during the last downturn, so small investment level warranted totally-could become a big fat zero, but price:book value looks like I'd get my money out in liquidation if it came to that.

[XL-entLady]

Wow, Allie, listen to you! I'm impressed! You always learn so much so quickly. Awesome.

Lady

[alevin]

Just realized tonight I actually filled my limit order of DDG the other day (14th). I moved my limit price up from where I first tried to fill the day before, but was still below the bid-ask when I put in the day order the day it filled. boohoo, it came to me, but I came up to it first. If I'd only had more faith, I coulda filled a limit order well below where I did get it filled.

At least I can say am showing a tiny profit on my tiny ddg oil hedge buy today. ATN and BP were down a little today but still solid gains since I bought each. GLD was a better stock hedge today, glad I've held onto some of it til could show a profit finally.

I probably need to sell something, or buy a short ETF something, or both, just dithering at the moment, don't want to give any holding up quite yet. Will probably buy AND sell, I still have good cash on the sideline too. I almost boght some GU earlier this week, it was well down, but I wanted it to go down just a little more, instead it went up-substantially. Hm. I might still buy some. It's still moderately "cheap" in USD.

[alevin]

Well, wish I'd held onto my original full purchase of ATN instead of getting spooked when it finally started showing a profit. Still got some tho, along with my original BP buy and DBC buy. Boy, I need to learn this hedging business better. Second time I've boughten DDG and regretted it both times. Good thing I own a lot less DDG than I do ATN and BP. I'm inclined to dump the DDG, but just don't believe this ramp job can continue much longer, we're back where we were last May/June with regard to weekly EMA cross I use for SPX. Guess I'll wait it out, thank goodness its only a 1x'r.

The GLD is doin alright these days too-finally, but rarified air comin up quick. Watching it close. BTW, I'm pulling down my first dividends ever! Got notified the other day its coming. Not a lot, but something. BP. The ATN has suspended divvy pending merger, and is enroute to becoming growth stock, no more divvys, but it's doing a good growth story for the moment which in part why I'm sticking with it til it gives me a reason not to (other than bagging out on divvys).

[alevin]

Hooah! Never thought I'd see the day I'd be truly happy to redo my taxes after sending in my returns, but today's a lifetime event-so far. I'm HAAAPY! Got not 1 but 2 notices from state taxes dept. in the past 3 bizdays the gist was that I forgot to attach copies of my fed returns with my state returns and they want copies, and hurry up about it. I began digging out copies of tax records and when I started reviewing the fed return, I suddenly spotted a glaring error. In my favor! I'd never had to write the fed a check ever til this year and it was a biiig one, totally unexpected. Blamed it on not having the mortgage interest anymore due to paying off the house April a year ago and grumped as I wrote the check in a state of stunned bemusement-

Reviewing all day today and rechecking all numbers, I discovered the abnormal tax $ figure due was actually due to my time-stressed abnormally bad adding and subtracting-human error back at tax time. They owe me! And not just a refund of the check I sent either. A couple hundred more to boot. The Treasury took my check and said thank you-I'm sure they were smirking all the way, haven't bothered to tell me I overpaid-wonder why?

If .gov isn't too broke to refund my money, think I'll stick it in my "be prepared" cash cushion I'm rebuilding. wonder how long they'll make me wait? (guess I have to do an amended return now, rats! and Oh JOY!!!)

[etftalk]

Rats and joy - exactly. Just dealing with it is a pain, even when you get money back.

Don't spend it all in one place!

[alevin]

Forgot to mention I sold my GLD several days ago @ $92.60, had bought at 91.5, watched it go down then up, then down again. Decided to bail while still showing a profit, coulda woulda shoulda bailed when I saw the trend turning over. Oh well, still learning. Still got the ATN and BP. Logged the dividend on BP recently-yay, my first. ATN is taking a nosedive after rollercoastering up the past several weeks, hanging tough at the 50MA tho and I still have a profit. The ATN is in the Roth account, at the time I thought I'd made a mistake, now I'm thinking its ok. I can sell w/o fear of shortterm cap gains whenever I choose, or maybe wait and average down-ooh bad idea. How about sell high, buy low? Meanwhile BP and DBC in the taxable account, hedging a little with DDG (1x short), but not fully hedged. Both BP and DBC turned over too and hanging tough at 50MA. I should get rid of both while I still have some profit, even if end up paying shortterm cap gains. decisions decisions.