alevin's Account

[etftalk]

Hey, I'm learning every day, getting better everyday at entry price. get it for the price I'm willing to pay or else don't buy, go buy something else.

I still haven't learned that.

I've actually been using Scottrade's alert system rather than limit orders just so I don't have to tie up funds.

[alevin]

tried another entry price strategy today. found an article that calculated fair price for SLW based on spot price of silver. SLW was cheap today relative to spot price of silver, by several$, so I paid a penny higher than bottom of this mornings bid-ask spread. got filled too.

The USL is still way below its 2008 peak. I dont expect it to go that high this time, just hope it doesnt drop me on my head, but also figured it evens out the contango-backwardation problems USO AND UNG have, being equal-weighted on futures or something like that.

[alevin]

been looking at uranium stocks for awhile. today is huge gap down, buy low, sell high. bought URA-50 shares. potential longterm play. future reactors will be designed with even more conservative margins for safety and site location around the world. world needs energy, solar and wind wont get us there, not by themselves. We had a carrier badly exposed to radiation this morning. I feel horrible-could have been my brother. he was based out of san diego the last several years of his service time. dont know what carrier he was on, could have been this one. mixed emotions about purchase for sure.

Japans reactors were not built to withstand quake of this magnitude, I also read this morning, and safety inspection records not all that reliable, going back years. tighter regulation and inspections coming I hope.

[XL-entLady]

Good luck with the uranium play. My ConEd was pulled down by the backlash against nuclear energy. If we have new reactors built in this country we've got to get newer technology. JMO.

[alevin]

Thanks Lady. Agreed on the tech. The ones lined up for permitting right now are much newer designs than the ones impacted by the tsunami. But I'm actually most interested in thorium reactors right now-technology developed decades ago-follows the recycle-reuse concept, less waste to store, more energy available. but it comes as byproduct of coal-burning-net reduction in CO2 production since get more bang for the coal ton burned.

US didn't invest in the technology when we could have, because uranium reactors were able to provide plutonium byproducts for cold war weaponry. thorium can't be used that way. China, France and Scandinavian countries are working on thorium right now. cheaper infrastructure too. Britain was starting to go down that road but pulled back in favor of "green" wind and solar. their loss, ours too if we don't get some momentum going.

I was researching stocks this morning before work that could be decent direct thorium (non-commodity) engineering plays for the global longterm, got a few names, not ready to buy.

On another tech-energy note, I bought my second penny stock today-set price where I wanted it, didn't know if it would come to me or not, but it did. I didn't chase it, used previous consolidation level as price. It was above that and not moving at all this morning while I watched.

VNDB-inventors of a patented paper battery that may become a cheap fairly easily-recyclable substitute for metal batteries some day. Might be a longterm holding. got it for ultra-cheap so can afford to hang onto it for awhile, see where it can go. Of course the big boyz might buy out the company and bury it so deep it never sees light of day again-too big a threat to traditional metal battery-makers or even alt-energy supportive metal battery makers.

Interesting concept tho to someone associated professionally with wood-fiber industry (marginally, very marginally). One reason I bought. other is, it sounds real, and maybe a real game-changer if can get legs under it.

[alevin]

well still underwater on the URA, but I thought it would be longterm hold when I bought it. trying to protect against ongoing $ devaluation now-China is developing bi-lateral currency exchanges with other countries now and divesting $. read they are now buying euros with $. I dont want to buy euro etf FXI so decided to buy some yuan etf instead-CYB. hope that wasnt a dumb move.

[alevin]

I decided to try following DecisionMoose signals in my very small brokerage account. they do like SentimentSurvey 100%, signal has had them in IWM since last November-signal switched this Friday to GLD at EOD. Way it works, buy the following week when price drops below Friday EOD for GLD.

I'll be doing that for half my taxable account, the other half is still in DBC since 09. It's done well for me, not ready to give it up yet. I may sell the DBC if I see it turn against me on weekly basis (DeMark price flip), if I do then I'll buy more GLD when it settles.

The ETF Timing14 system I mentioned couple weeks ago-I sat and watched performance of its signals the past 2 weeks before wading in. Weekly signals-buy COB on Monday after End of Week signal the prior Friday. I think I'll follow the Moosignal system of buying below the Friday close, even if that means wait a day or 2. Definitely the EWO signal a couple weeks ago, that would have paid off bigtime that week.

Their signal went to TLT last week due to market instability issues. They ended green, marginally, back to EWO for the coming week. I'll take the signal for EWO this time round-in the Roth account.

[alevin]

So I hedged my gold bet today in the taxable account-bought CEF @ the close, big spinning candle. bought equal amount of IAU at the close (low of the day, sitting right on the 50 MA). this is taxable account-an intermediate-term play on GLD-DecisionMoose called for switch to GLD as of COB last Friday-signal had been in IWM since last fall.

My bid for EWO is still sitting unfilled in Roth account. I may drop it lower tomorrow, see what happens. this play is only good for a week before new signal expected-different ETF trading system than DecisionMoose-I have more leeway for trading commissions in this account for more frequent trading for bigger rate of growth in the account. the other account is not big enough to tolerate frequent commissions.

[alevin]

My GTC buy order for the EWO in Roth account got filled this morning-well below yesterdays price range, but above Fridays closing price. This play is only til next Monday, so hope it plays out as a decent gain-I put real $ into it so the gains would cover commissions and still have a gain.

Got real $ dry powder still for next weeks signal-use that to buy next weeks recommendation while selling the EWO. Letting other earlier purchases ride for time being. The URA and USL, GXF, EWD, COUGF and FNDB, WMB. Thinking of selling the WMB-really good gains since early last year and same with GXF-but then again....let winners ride.

I need to sell the URA and the other spec ones, can't make myself pull the trigger. still got a gain on the COUGF but it keeps drifting lower and lower towards my buyin price. still got enough gain to pay the commissions if I sell now. rolling eyes.

[alevin]

Sold DBC this morning ~40% gain, held since around April 09, so longterm cap gains, not shortterm. Bailed out because finally learned value of Keltner channels-they signal trend change, monthly Keltner channel showed the trend change-hadn't signaled change in trend since 09.

Other holdings still sitting, some I wish I'd done more chart analysis before buying, others still in good position since I bought. still learning but feeling good about DBC sale at this time.