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Thread: Natural Gas ready to Move Up?

  1. #41

    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    Upstate NY
    Posts
    142

    Default Re: Natural Gas ready to Move Up?

    Closed end funds can trade a premium or discount for very long periods of time. One CEF I bought at a 16% discount around February. It's discount now is 11% but I've made 25% off the purchase. At this point, I'll wait until October for the another 30% of that holding to become a LT Cap gain. So unless things get bad fast, I can hold on.

    UNG is the 17th largest ETF holding amongst Hedge Funds? As of the latest Hedge Fund data, which would be 6/30/09, 34 have ownership in UNG with $121 Million Long and $98 Million short.

    Also, the second biggest holding, SPY, was $4,004 Million Long vs. $21,666 million short (6/30/09). Sounds like a crowded trade seeing that the SPY is up 11% as of today's close since 7/1/09.

    USO is up there too, but it's about a 1:4 long/short. I'm sure there's a play on short oil, long gas with these ETF's. Commodity ETF's aren't being bought only by people like us who are clueless.

    As for UNG, I think I heard before that Nat Gas prices are going to stay low for a long time to come. I also heard we're in for a cold winter. I remember some of the calls for Oil to stay below $55 a barrel earlier in the year. Yep, kick 'em when they're down; the media is good at that. We've still got folks looking for an entry point in the general stock market because of the media.

    Source: GS Hedge Fund Trend Monitor
    "Don't let your highs get too high and don't let your lows get too low." Bullitt’s Market Blog

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  3. #42
    alevin Guest
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    Default Re: Natural Gas ready to Move Up?

    After reading the following article on nat. gas production dynamics longterm, this morning, I'm becoming re-interested in natural gas plays. Not ready to dive back in yet, but I'll be watching and doing some more research in that sector. Will probably go for single stocks again and leave UNG alone. With its 20% premium, I can wait.

    http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2009/0909.html

    In the meantime, glad I'm going for heat pump install in my home this fall, will offset any stiff price increases in nat gas for my living room fireplace in coming years.

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  5. #43

    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    84

    Default Re: Natural Gas ready to Move Up?


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  7. #44

    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Upstate NY
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    Default Re: Natural Gas ready to Move Up?

    UNG's premium continues to contract while the bears continue to be bearish. Gas continues to rise as traders factor in the fact that this fund will need to purchase gas contracts in order to bring the fund to NAV. Another disinformation headline.

    In a filing Friday, managers of the United States Natural Gas ETF announced that the fund would resume the creation of new shares, a move that could send the fund tumbling more than 16%. The regulatory notice acknowledges that "the resumption of creation activity, even on a limited basis, could reduce or remove any premium" in the fund's price. As of Friday, UNG was trading at a 16.12% premium to its NAV. While creation will not resume until Sept. 28, this announcement will have an immediate impact on UNG's price on Monday, Sept. 14.
    http://www.thestreet.com/story/10597...m_ven=GOOGLEFI
    "Don't let your highs get too high and don't let your lows get too low." Bullitt’s Market Blog

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  9. #45

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    906

    Default Re: Natural Gas ready to Move Up?

    Natural gas soaring, up 41% since early July. The Nat Gas ETF UNG is down 37% during that same period.

    Anyone??



    -- Tom | My Trades


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  11. #46

    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    142

    Default Re: Natural Gas ready to Move Up?

    I know. It's aggravating. Same goes for any fund that tracks a futures market- DBA, USO, UGA.... First the 2x Funds, then the 3x Funds, and now the Commodity Funds are going bust.
    "Don't let your highs get too high and don't let your lows get too low." Bullitt’s Market Blog

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  13. #47

    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    142

    Default Re: Natural Gas ready to Move Up?

    Is UNG getting ready to actually start an upleg? What a disaster this fund has been.

    UNG$XNG.png
    "Don't let your highs get too high and don't let your lows get too low." Bullitt’s Market Blog

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  15. #48

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    654

    Default Re: Natural Gas ready to Move Up?

    That's not kidding. I was a sorry owner for a while last summer when I thought it couldn't go any lower. I thought wrong.

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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