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Thread: Market Talk April 2009

  1. #41

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    906

    Default Re: Market Talk April 2009

    I think we could be getting close to a bears capitulation, meaning the weak bears will be giving up. That would mean a short-term top is near (I can't even say that with a straight face anymore, since I've been saying it for weeks).

    Using some conspiracy theory predictions, I'll be looking toward May 6-8 as some potential "trouble" for the market.
    -- Tom | My Trades

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  3. #42

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    654

    Default Re: Market Talk April 2009

    ETF Rewind - Week 17 (04/24/09)

    (Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)We finally saw a pause in the recovery incline, but only by a touch with the S&P500 (SPY) ending the week down just -0.5%. However, the NASDAQ100 was able to post a seventh week of gains at +1.1%, leaving it just -1.0% below its 10-month moving average.
    The weekly trade was highly news driven, starting with fresh bank nationalization fears (Deal.com - Stressed Out), followed by a flood of earnings and economic reports, merger and acquisition happenings (Register - Oracle Sun)(NYT - Pepsi Bottling), and ending with the release of the "stress-test" methodology (WSJ - Water Torture). You can see the wide range this put the market through in the RSI charts below.
    Other equity indices joining the NASDAQ100 in approaching their long-term averages are Emerging Markets (EEM), Consumer Discretionaries (XLY), and, naturally, Technology (XLK). Although four week recoveries in these sectors have been dwarfed by those of Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (IYR), up +16% and +26% respectively, you can see how far those two have yet to go before moving back into bullish territory.
    Week Eighteen of 2009 features another heavy earnings and economic calendar, including a Federal Open Market Committee statement out Wednesday, as follows:


    Looking at Price Index readings for next week, the market remains slightly overbought, particularly in the Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Technology (XLK) spaces. It will be interesting to see how these overbought reading play against strong Relative Strength in these very same areas. On the flip side of the coin, Treasuries (TLT) and the US Dollar (UUP) look relatively oversold. A recipe for rotation on the right news flow? Enjoy Your Weekend!


    http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  5. #43

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Market Talk April 2009

    Thanks Lady!!

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  7. #44

    Join Date
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    654

    Default Re: Market Talk April 2009

    The Moose call position for this week is cash. The commentary is pretty interesting.

    http://www.decisionmoose.com/Moosecalls.html

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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  9. #45

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    654

    Default Re: Market Talk April 2009

    Do you think realty and home construction ETFs are really this good yet??


    "Weekly TCA-ETF Rankings
    41 of our 57 sectors are in the "buy" range. Many sectors still have extremely strong ratings, although some ETF's have moved into our "penalty box". This designation means that the sector cannot qualify as "buy" on technical grounds. You can think of it like a sell stop, only with a more complicated basis.




    http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical...-working/40095

    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok


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  11. #46

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    906

    Default Re: Market Talk April 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    Do you think realty and home construction ETFs are really this good yet??
    There is a good chance of whipsaws on any buys right now. Even Carl at Decision Point said that about his recent model buys.
    -- Tom | My Trades

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  13. #47

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    654

    Default Re: Market Talk April 2009

    I don't know how many of you read Dave Fry, but his blog has become one of my regular stops. I really like how he posts the various charts with a quick statement about each one. Here is the first portion of his latest:

    MARKET COMMENT

    April 28, 2009




    I wish my Money & Banking class in college was this easy—hell, even gym was hard by comparison to current bank stress tests. Basically it’s an open book test allowing banks to set their own evaluations on some toxic waste and hope investors take it all in stride. The false and misleading statements from CEOs like BAC CEO Ken Lewis are, in ordinary times, shocking. These days it passes for business as usual. “We don’t need any capital….we’re sound...we can return TARP money today…and so forth.” So, BAC and C do in fact need more capital. Who knew!?!

    Today markets were pulled lower by iffy stress test results and pushed higher by better than expected (there’s that bullish slang again) consumer confidence numbers.

    Volume remains light and one would imagine more action will result from the Fed meeting aftermath although it should be a nonevent but then so was the last one. Nevertheless, any time the Fed meets investors pull in their horns until an announcement is made.










    [more]

    http://www.etfdigest.com/davesDaily.php


    Lady
    If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

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