Burrocrat's Account

[burrocrat]

well we got some drop so far today, going to pick off best price and get back in for santa rally in stocks.

placed day-only limit orders for:

SCHF to buy at $25.06, now at 25.14

SCHV to buy at $25.01, now at $25.05

let's see if it can drift a little lower in the next few hours and hit my limits.

[burrocrat]

12/17/09 Buy SCHV at $25.05, roth.

i adjusted limits with about an hour left in the day, filled SCHV at 3:46 pm. the SCHF didn't get there.

[burrocrat]

12/18/09 buy SCHF at $25.04, roth.

[burrocrat]

12/18/09 buy SCHF at $25.04, roth.

Sell SCHF at $26.40, +$1.36 per share, +5.43%, roth.

Heady stuff here, got me scared. I'm trying to learn how to take profits and be patient.

I hope we re-enter the trading channel, easy pickings there, i hate to be out now, if this thing lights up for a few days i'm in the dust, but just too much dumb money sentiment playing this roll, gotta go.

[burrocrat]

12/17/09 Buy SCHV at $25.05, roth.

Sell SCHV at $25.58, +$0.53 per share, +2.12%, roth.

[burrocrat]

well that's all out of the market except in the work retirement account, all cash now in both brokerage and roth accounts.

funny, i opened these accounts to diversify and do the buy-and-hold thing, but have ended up swing trading instead. also, the brokerage was supposed to be the speculative account but roth ira has out performed it 3 to 1.

i'm still working on getting some new software up to track these accounts, but simple calculations show: [(current balance - contributions in) / (contributions in)] = x

roth ira x = +10.2%
brokerage x = +3.06%

not bad since early november inception. i'm totally confused as to the near-term market direction, just going to get out and wait, though i'm afraid i could be missing a great ride here.

[burrocrat]

01/11/10: Buy COW at $28.20

seasonal feeder calf supply play in a recovering economy, 3 to 9 month sell window, unless it returns profits sooner.

[burrocrat]

01/10/10: Buy COW at $28.20

seasonal feeder calf supply play in a recovering economy, 3 to 9 month sell window, unless it returns profits sooner.

should read 01/11/10, that's twice i've got the day wrong, at least i got the year right.

[burrocrat]

getting close on the COW trade, bought at 28.20, closed today at 29.77, been debating pulling the sell trigger for a week now.

i haven't done the back testing but i think this is a solid annual play, not every cattle operation works this way but in my neck of the plains supply is heavy in fall and light in spring, on a national whole market level this does affect live cattle prices, the degree varies based on the cattle cycle but it is real and playable every year i think, boots on the ground helps inform decisions though, i know lots of folks that live or die on these prices every year - not with securities but the actual animals, and they take it very seriously.

eonomy of scale comes into play, a decent gain but playing 100 shares vs. 1000 makes a huge difference, at least my online brokerage reduced the cost per trade but at my levels it is still a good size premium to give up.

got the play right, don't have the volume just now to maximize profits. i went aggressive in the retirement account for a couple of months (easier to bet with house money) and held mostly cash except for this commodity play in the real (all mine) accounts as a balancing strategy, considering liquadating all and starting over, the winds of change are blowing.

[burrocrat]

01/11/10: Buy COW at $28.20

seasonal feeder calf supply play in a recovering economy, 3 to 9 month sell window, unless it returns profits sooner.

03/17/10: sell COW at 29.77, +1.57 per share, +5.5%.

just don't have the volume to offset trading commissions and keep a decent profit, going back to the free trades.